25
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
MEMBER FINRA/SIPC
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20
0
-10
%
-15
Durable Goods Orders (YoY, %) (L1)
Implied Probabilities for Fed Funds Rate Changes
Source: LPL Research, Bloomberg 08/26/19
1998
2000
Mar
'16
12
15
Ned Davis Research Large Cap Growth/Value Equity Series Ratio
Dec
'16
Sept
'16
Sept 18
-2
5
10
2822
Recessions
20
2005
One Cut
-10
-15
Oct 30
4
8
Dec 11
Months Preceeding
Months Following
First Fed Rate Cut
%
Three Cuts or More
Two Cuts
A rate cut is a 25 basis point (0.25%) reduction from the current upper bound fed funds rate of 2.25%.
Jun
'16
-5
0
-20
Recessions
Durable Goods Orders Ex. Transportation (YoY, %) (R1)
Mar
'17
Jun
'17
Sept
'17
Dec
'17
Mar
'18
Jun
'18
Sept
'18
Dec
'18
Mar
'19
Jun
'19
15
10
5
-5
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE
RES-40551-0719 | For Public Use | Tracking #1-887073
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.
Investing involves risk including loss of principal.
Economic forecasts may not develop as predicted.
All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Market implied rate hike expectations are calculated based on the pricing of various fed funds futures contracts.
MEMBER FINRA/SIPC
This Research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.
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