6
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
MEMBER FINRA/SIPC
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5
1
%
-1
$ Billions (Left Scale)
Implied Probabilities for Fed Funds Rate Changes
Source: LPL Research, CPB World Trade Monitor 8/28/19
1998
2000
'15
12
126
Ned Davis Research Large Cap Growth/Value Equity Series Ratio
Jul
'17
Apr
'17
Sept 18
-2
122
124
2822
Recessions
20
2005
One Cut
114
-15
Oct 30
4
8
Dec 11
Months Preceeding
Months Following
First Fed Rate Cut
%
Three Cuts or More
Two Cuts
A rate cut is a 25 basis point (0.25%) reduction from the current upper bound fed funds rate of 2.25%.
Jan
'17
118
120
-20
March 2018: United States imposes the first round of tariffs on China.
World Trade 3-Month Average
'16
Jun
'17
Sept
'17
'17
Mar
'18
Jun
'18
'18
Dec
'18
Mar
'19
'19
4
3
2
0
$128
Jan
'18
Apr
'18
Jul
'18
Oct
'17
Oct
'18
Jan
'19
Apr
'19
116
Year Over Year (Right Axis)
B
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE
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The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.
Investing involves risk including loss of principal.
Economic forecasts may not develop as predicted.
All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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