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The Big Picture
Scripted vs. Unscripted
SVOD
Broadcast
Cable
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New Series
Last year’s drop-off was far steeper even than those caused by COVID and the 2007-2008 Writers Guild strike. The total number of original scripted and unscripted series released on U.S. TV platforms plunged 20% year-over-year in 2023, from more than 2,000 titles to just over 1,600 titles.
Genres
International TV
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Cancellations
2024
Peak TV Postmortem
Macro Backdrop
Section 1
The Big Picture
SOURCE: LUMINATE FILM & TV, VARIETY INTELLIGENCE PLATFORM ANALYSIS
SOURCE: LUMINATE FILM & TV, VARIETY INTELLIGENCE PLATFORM ANALYSIS
NOTE: FIGURES SHOWN FOR NETWORKS AND SERVICES IN THE U.S.; KIDS CONTENT EXCLUDED
Due to strike-related production delays in the fall season, broadcast TV took the biggest proportional hit by a large amount, with the networks’ output dipping 36%. Broadcast, however, will also likely see the healthiest short-term bounceback as production returns to normal, thanks to its limited and relatively fixed programming schedule.
SOURCE: LUMINATE FILM & TV, VARIETY INTELLIGENCE PLATFORM ANALYSIS
NOTE: STREAMING REFERS TO SUBSCRIPTION STREAMING; KIDS CONTENT EXCLUDED
After a decade of almost continuous growth, TV output has dropped and is unlikely to resurge to peak levels in the near future. As streamers manage expenses more aggressively and cable’s long decline continues, there will be far less work to go around for the production community in the months and years ahead while the industry undergoes a general contraction.
SOURCE: LUMINATE FILM & TV, VARIETY INTELLIGENCE PLATFORM ANALYSIS;NOTE: EXCLUDES KIDS CONTENT
A smaller volume of new scripted series may not prove catastrophic for streaming, where data suggests the vast majority of originals go largely unwatched. This contraction is a much needed correction from the impractical abundance of peak TV, which produced a far greater supply of shows than could ever be met by viewer demand.
SOURCE: LUMINATE FILM & TV, VARIETY INTELLIGENCE PLATFORM ANALYSIS;NOTE: EXCLUDES KIDS CONTENT
Still, fewer shows will likely be produced going forward regardless of format: Unscripted titles dropped 15% in 2023, a sign that the dual strikes were not the only factors depressing output. Looming labor unrest in the reality TV space could also hobble unscripted production in the near future.
SOURCE: LUMINATE FILM & TV, VARIETY INTELLIGENCE PLATFORM ANALYSIS;NOTE: EXCLUDES KIDS CONTENT
Peak TV was defined by a surge in original scripted content, offsetting the 2000s reality TV boom (albeit never completely). Now, SVOD platforms will likely shift to producing more, cheaper unscripted originals as their corporate owners cut costs, echoing cable’s trajectory over the past decade.
-20%
Section 2
Scripted vs. Unscripted
A data-driven exploration of the dramatic decline in TV series content
SOURCE: LUMINATE FILM & TV, VARIETY INTELLIGENCE PLATFORM ANALYSIS;NOTE: EXCLUDES KIDS CONTENT
SOURCE: LUMINATE FILM & TV, VARIETY INTELLIGENCE PLATFORM ANALYSIS;NOTE: EXCLUDES KIDS CONTENT
Not all platforms will be equally diminished. Netflix’s triumphant comeback from its 2022 subscriber slump and stock crash has allowed the streamer to continue spending at unrivaled levels. Though its output dropped significantly year-over-year (-22%), Netflix remains the king of streaming content with a nearly 44% share of original SVOD series released.
The end of peak TV may actually be a boon for streaming’s legacy media players, who sank billions into original content with mixed results. A more moderated and considered content strategy could end up yielding similar rewards at a much lower cost.
SOURCE: LUMINATE FILM & TV, VARIETY INTELLIGENCE PLATFORM ANALYSIS;NOTE: EXCLUDES KIDS CONTENT
2023 was a historic year for SVOD, as annual original series output on U.S.-based platforms dropped for the first time. Even while navigating through COVID, 2020 saw an uptick from the previous year. Having fueled the explosive growth of peak TV, streaming could fall considerably in the years ahead.
Section 3
SVOD
YouTube Premium
Seeso
Acorn TV
Hulu
Peacock
HBO Max/Max
Prime Video
Discovery+
Netflix
Apple TV
Disney
CBS All Access/Paramount
Quibi
DC Universe
Crunchyroll
BritBox
AMC+
Shudder
ALLBLK
BET+
Acorn TV
SundanceNow
SOURCE: LUMINATE FILM & TV, VARIETY INTELLIGENCE PLATFORM ANALYSIS
NOTE: EXCLUDES KIDS CONTENT
Case in point: The CW. Sold to station group Nexstar in 2022, it had its scripted slate slashed after a strategic cost-cutting pivot. With CBS owner Paramount on the cusp of a sale and Disney CEO Bob Iger having mulled offloading ABC, other networks may see a similar fate.
SOURCE: LUMINATE FILM & TV, VARIETY INTELLIGENCE PLATFORM ANALYSIS
NOTE: EXCLUDES KIDS CONTENT
Broadcast networks leaned heavily on unscripted shows in 2023, which labor contracts allowed to continue amid the strikes. Thus, the volume of unscripted series dropped just 10% YoY, while scripted output cratered; fewer than 40 dramatic series had seasons premiere across all six networks (including PBS).
The strikes also delayed new scripted broadcast series, as getting established shows back into production took priority after the disputes ended. This year’s scripted output will therefore remain reduced and may never reach peak levels again as media companies continue to shift content investments to streaming.
Section 4
Broadcast
SOURCE: LUMINATE FILM & TV, VARIETY INTELLIGENCE PLATFORM ANALYSIS
NOTE: EXCLUDES KIDS CONTENT
However, cable’s original content volume will continue to shrink in the long run as cord-cutting spreads further and media conglomerates shift increasing programming dollars to streaming. The number of original series on cable has already plummeted 40% from its peak a decade ago.
Indeed, the peak TV decline began on cable long before 2020 and has only accelerated as networks continue to downsize once-powerhouse networks like Showtime and Freeform. With new “skinny bundles” on the market that allow cable providers to drop channels from their packages, more networks will likely soon be out of the original scripted series business.
SOURCE: LUMINATE FILM & TV, VARIETY INTELLIGENCE PLATFORM ANALYSIS
NOTE: EXCLUDES KIDS CONTENT
Cable networks posted the smallest year-over-year drop in series released — just 14% — thanks to their predominantly unscripted output. These shows, unaffected by the strikes, outnumbered scripted cable series more than 4-to-1 in 2022 and more than 6-to-1 in 2023.
Section 5
Cable
SOURCE: LUMINATE FILM & TV, VARIETY INTELLIGENCE PLATFORM ANALYSIS
NOTE: EXCLUDES KIDS CONTENT
Studios are once again prioritizing theatrical releases over straight-to-SVOD films, but a similar pendulum swing is doubtful for linear TV networks. New linear series orders plunged amid the streaming wars, and with SVOD orders now likely to remain reduced, the TV industry is headed for a significant contraction.TV pilots have historically been rare at streamers, which have hewed toward ordering shows directly to series. This was another symptom of peak TV’s irrational exuberance, however, and a more rigorous development process should be expected across the industry going forward.
SOURCE: LUMINATE FILM & TV, VARIETY INTELLIGENCE PLATFORM ANALYSIS
NOTE: FIGURES REFER TO SERIES AIRING FIRST SEASON IN THE GIVEN YEAR; EXCLUDES KIDS CONTENT
The number of new series premiering fell 21% in 2023, in line with the total drop in output. Though the loss of pilot season took a heavy toll on new broadcast shows, freshman series overall held steady at roughly half of all titles released last year, consistent with prior years.
Section 6
New Series
SOURCE: LUMINATE FILM & TV, VARIETY INTELLIGENCE PLATFORM ANALYSIS
NOTE: EXCLUDES KIDS CONTENT
Peak TV’s signature product, the prestige drama, could fall the farthest from its heights in the coming years. Expensive to produce and often risky bets, dramas like Mad Men, which defined TV’s 2010s Golden Age, might have difficulty getting greenlit in today’s environment.
Still, “serialized drama” remained the second most common arena, or subgenre, among streaming and overall releases last year. Splashy, must-watch dramas are typically the best bets for drawing viewers to a network and will remain key to programming strategies even as their prevalence drops.
SOURCE: LUMINATE FILM & TV, VARIETY INTELLIGENCE PLATFORM ANALYSIS
NOTE: EXCLUDES KIDS CONTENT
Animation was the lone major TV genre to see an uptick in 2023, attributable to factors including longer production lead times (resulting in the pre-strike completion of acting work) and international imports such as Japanese anime. Other genres fell across the board, with broadcast suffering the largest proportional declines.
Section 7
Genre
SOURCE: LUMINATE FILM & TV, VARIETY INTELLIGENCE PLATFORM ANALYSIS
NOTE: EXCLUDES KIDS CONTENT
This phenomenon is unlikely to repeat as U.S. TV production gets back on track in 2024 but, post-peak TV, streamers are expected to rely more on international content, which can be produced or acquired for less than domestic productions.
The maturity of the U.S. streaming market is also pushing streamers to invest more in local content for less saturated regions. One such market: India, a fast-growing economic and cultural force where Netflix in particular has been spending aggressively. An Indian series could very well become the next Squid Game.
SOURCE: LUMINATE FILM & TV, VARIETY INTELLIGENCE PLATFORM ANALYSIS
NOTE: EXCLUDES KIDS CONTENT
Non-English-language titles claimed their largest-ever share of SVOD series released in the U.S. last year, at fully a third of such output (not counting kids content). Indeed, “foreign language” was the single most common category observed for original shows on streaming in 2023, per Luminate data, outstripping all other subgenre categories for the first time.
Section 8
International TV
SOURCE: LUMINATE FILM & TV, VARIETY INTELLIGENCE PLATFORM ANALYSIS
The crunch is being felt even at Big Tech’s SVOD platforms. Apple TV+ went on a cancellation spree in 2023, axing more shows that year than in the previous three combined, while Amazon’s top executives are reportedly scrutinizing content costs more closely after a profligate period of spending.
Meanwhile, Netflix’s 2020–23 cancel rate fell to dead last among streamers after last year, belying its reputation as an aggressive show killer. Proportionally speaking, Netflix cancels by far the fewest shows of any major SVOD, a statistic that may very well hold for the future thanks to its current healthy financial position.
SOURCE: LUMINATE FILM & TV, VARIETY INTELLIGENCE PLATFORM ANALYSIS
NOTE: “CONTINUING SERIES” INCLUDES THOSE THAT WERE CANCELED
One probable consequence of peak TV’s end: Networks’ series cancellation rates will likely spike over the next year. Cancels slowed in 2023 as the strikes froze studios’ pipelines, but they resumed with a vengeance from Q4 into Q1 ’24. Max canceled five major shows within a month, for instance.
Section 9
Cancellations
SOURCE: LUMINATE FILM & TV, VARIETY INTELLIGENCE PLATFORM ANALYSIS
SOURCE: S&P GLOBAL RATINGS
Wall Street’s new demand for profits in streaming coupled with the secular decline of linear TV has put the traditional studios in a constricting financial bind. And so TV output has come crashing down from its peak as the SVOD bubble that funded it finally burst.
WBD became the next company (after Netflix) to post an annual profit in streaming last year, indicating it is possible to turn the tide, though not without highly aggressive levels of cost-cutting and fiscal discipline. Until streaming margins improve, there’s little hope of TV returning to peak levels.
SOURCE: YAHOO FINANCE
The macroeconomic backdrop hanging over the decline of peak TV traces back to April 2022, when Netflix’s first quarterly subscriber loss sent its market value plummeting. Since then, the streamer has pulled off an extraordinary comeback as its legacy media rivals struggled to reboot their stock prices, fueling the current desperation in the sector.
Section 10
Macro Backdrop
SOURCE: COMPANY REPORTS, VARIETY INTELLIGENCE PLATFORM ANALYSIS;NOTE: *DATA FOR FISCAL YEAR 2023; **DATA IS YEAR TO DATE AS OF Q3 2023
Abbott Elementary
Crazy Ex-Girlfriend
Game of Thrones
The Curse
Ahsoka
Poker Face
Bojack Horseman
Billions
Squid Game
Dark
Our Flag Means Death
The Problem with Jon Stewart
The Bear
Stranger Things
Love Is Blind
Ozark
The Traitors
Bridgerton
The Handmaid's Tale
Atlanta
Yellowstone
The Queen's Gambit
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