Unperturbed
Equities climbed for the fifth month in a row in March, as the market rally broadened out to non-tech stocks. Energy was the best-performing sector in the S&P 500, buoyed by rising oil prices. Consumer discretionary was the worst-performing sector, dragged down by a slump in Tesla’s stock price.
Equities
Yields
Currencies
Commodities
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Yields roundtrip in March
Treasury yields fell in the first week of March after disappointing consumer and business survey data hinted at economic weakness. But yields climbed back once inflation and growth data came in strong later in the month. Core inflation for February was an annualized 4.6%, well above the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) target.
Japanese yen stuck around 150
The Japanese yen depreciated after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) failed to signal future rate hikes at its monetary policy announcement on March 18. While the BoJ hiked rates for the first time since 2007, its guidance indicated that interest rates would remain low for the foreseeable future. This implies that the dirt-cheap Japanese yen will rely not on BoJ hikes, but on rate cuts from other central banks to catch a bid.
A steady ascent for oil
Oil prices climbed for the third month in a row in March, ending the first quarter up 16%. For a corner of markets often characterized by violent price swings, oil has been noticeably tranquil in 2024. Daily price moves have had an annualized standard deviation of only 26% this year, compared to 34% in 2023 and 49% in 2022. With demand outstripping supply, in the absence of major shocks we expect oil prices to keep rising.
US Treasury yields
Source: Bloomberg. Rebased to 100 one year ago. All indices expressed in local currency, except MSCI EM, which is denominated in US dollars. As at March 31, 2024.
Source: Bloomberg. As of March 31, 2024.
Source: Bloomberg. Rebased to 100 one year ago. As at March 31, 2024.
Source: Bloomberg. Denominated in US dollars. As of March 31, 2024.
US Treasurey yield
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