ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey Q3 2025 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey Q3 2025

ManpowerGroupEmployment Outlook Survey UK

THE ONLY WAY IS UP EMPLOYER HIRING CONFIDENCE HITS ROCK BOTTOM FOR Q3 2025

UK Net Employment Outlook

Hiring Estimates by Sector

How many people do employers expect to hire?

UK Net Employment Outlook +19%

UK Net Employment Outlook By Sector VIEW

UK Net Employment Outlook By region VIEW

UK Net Employment Outlook By BUSINESS SIZE VIEW

The Net Employment Outlook is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increased headcount in the next quarter, and subtracting the percentage that expect a decrease. A positive figure means that, on balance, more employers expect to add to their headcount than expect to reduce staff.

The vast drop this quarter marks a one-off reset that we have been anticipating to the employment market. After months of uncertainty, hitting this new low is a symptom of the entire labour market re-aligning after the changes imposed by the National Insurance and Living Wage increases, alongside the recent uncertainties of the US trade tariffs. From here, employers will ‘wait and see’ to gauge the volume of the reset rather than making any swift decisions towards the end of the year.

Petra Tagg Director, ManpowerGroup UK

ABOUT THE SURVEY

The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey is the most comprehensive, forward-looking employment survey of its kind, used globally as a key labour market indicator. The Net Employment Outlook is derived from the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from it the percentage of employers expecting a decrease. Running since 1962, various factors underpin its success: Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity, and area of focus. The Survey is the most extensive, forward-looking employment survey in the world, asking employers to forecast employment over the next quarter. In contrast, other surveys and studies focus on retrospective data to report on what occurred in the past. Independent: The Survey is conducted with a representative sample of employers from throughout the countries and territories in which it is conducted. The survey participants are not derived from ManpowerGroup’s customer base. Robust: The Survey is based on interviews with 40,671 public and private employers across 41 countries and territories to measure anticipated employment trends each quarter. This sample allows for analysis to be performed across specific sectors and regions to provide more detailed information. Focused: For more than six decades, the Survey has derived all its information from a single question: “How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of September 2025 as compared to the current quarter?” Survey Methodology: The methodology used to collect NEO data has been digitised in 41 markets for the Q3 2025 report. Survey responses were collected from 1-30 April 2025. Both the question asked and the respondent profile remain unchanged. The size of the organisation and sector are standardised across all countries and territories to allow international comparisons.

The Net Employment Outlook (NEO) is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage of employers that expect to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. A positive NEO figure means that, on balance, more employers expect to add to their headcount in the following three months than those who intend to reduce staff.

FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

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What does Net Employment Outlook mean?

What does Seasonal Adjustment mean? Why is it used in the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey?

Seasonal adjustment is a statistical process that allows the Survey data to be presented without the impact of hiring fluctuations that normally occur through the course of the year – typically due to various external factors, such as changes in weather, traditional production cycles, and public holidays. Seasonal adjustment has the effect of flattening peaks and smoothing troughs in the data to better illustrate underlying employment trends and provide a more accurate representation of the Survey results.

How are companies selected for the Survey?

Employers are selected based on the types of companies and organisations they represent. We want to ensure that our panel is representative of each participating country’s national labor market, so each country’s panel is built in proportion to that country’s overall distribution of industry sectors and organisation sizes.

Who do you interview in each company?

The person we select to interview will be someone with a good overview of staffing levels and hiring intentions within their organisation. Normally, this will be the head of human resources (HR) or an HR manager. In smaller organisations, however, that person may be a general manager or even the CEO.

What are forward-looking statements?

This report contains forward-looking statements, including statements regarding labour demand in certain regions, countries and industries, economic uncertainty and the use and impact of AI. Actual events or results may differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements, due to risks, uncertainties and assumptions. These factors include those found in the Company's reports filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including the information under the heading "Risk Factors" in its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023, whose information is incorporated herein by reference. ManpowerGroup disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking or other statements in this release, except as required by law.

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