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Blue economy barriers
The blue economy could reach $3trn by 2030 but what are the
risks fund managers need to consider as they allocate much-needed capital to this asset class? Michael Nelson reports
The blue economy – the value of products and services generated with and by our oceans and seas – is set to grow faster than the established economy by 2030, according to estimates from the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD), and therefore investments into this area are increasingly becoming mainstream.
Earlier this year, fund managers predicted a record year for issuance in fixed-income markets for bonds focused on ocean health and water security, while water has been flagged as a key theme for many equity portfolios, with funds solely investing in this area. Indeed, the OECD’s report – The Blue Economy in Cities and Regions – predicts the blue economy could reach $3trn (£2.36trn) by 2030 if barriers to development are addressed.
As with any relatively immature asset class, experienced investors understand the opportunity of allocating to this area in its early development. But, and perhaps more pressingly for some, they also understand the urgency. The OECD report – based on the findings of a global survey of more than 80 cities, regions and basins – highlights the damaging effects of climate change on the blue economy and its impact on the cities and regions most exposed, as well as shedding light on the link between the blue economy and water security.
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The blue economy is a major driver
of urban and regional development, creating millions of local jobs in water-dependent sectors’
The value of the ocean economy and related ecosystems
Ocean-based industries
$1.5trn/y in
global economic value (eg capture fisheries, shipping)
Coastal
ecosystems
$20.4trn/y
in global
economic value (eg mangroves, coral reefs,
salt marshes)
Marine
ecosystems
$27.8trn/y
in global
economic value (open ocean and continental shelf)
Inland
ecosystems
$27trn/y
in global
economic value (eg rivers,
lakes, peatlands, swamps)
Name Name, job title, Company name
Source: OECD
Climate-related threats
From fisheries to shipping and tourism, the report notes the blue economy is a major driver of urban and regional development, creating millions of local jobs in water-dependent sectors. For example, one in nine jobs in California are linked to port-related activities.
However, it can also contribute to carbon emissions and ecosystem degradation, while its reliance on freshwater, coastal and marine ecosystems expose it to climate change impacts.
Based on survey responses, the most significant climate-related threats to blue economy activities include sea level rise (54%), flooding (41%) and coastal
erosion (35%).
The DWS Concept ESG Blue Economy fund opened in 2021, and currently holds €300m (£257m) in assets under management. Paul Buchwitz, portfolio manager and analyst for sustainable equities at DWS, says many of the threats identified in the report – particularly the acidification of the ocean, ocean warming and coastal resilience – are at the forefront of minds when it comes to portfolio construction.
“In general, we invest in companies that, among other things, offer products and services that address those issues. So, companies in the offshore wind value chain, and engineering companies and geodata companies with a focus on nature-based solutions,” Buchwitz says.
“We also invest in companies with a direct link to the blue economy and a potential negative impact on the health of the ocean, engaging with them on climate-related topics like SBTi (Science-based Targets initiative) verification.”
Assessment framework
Speaking at the UN Ocean Decade Conference in Barcelona in April, Aziza Akhmouch, head of cities at the OECD, stressed the underexplored potential of cities and regions in the blue economy, emphasising “while cities and regions contribute to 69% of significant climate-related public investment in OECD countries, the survey shows less than 10% of respondents have a subnational blue economy strategy”.
Further, the report findings showed the primary barrier hindering effective blue economy policies is the lack of financial resources (83%), followed by insufficient data collection and sharing, along with fragmented roles and responsibilities in policymaking (both at 69%).
To address this, the OECD has set out an assessment framework designed as a tool for governments to self-evaluate their progress toward a blue economy that is resilient, inclusive, sustainable and circular.
The framework is divided into three parts: first, helping local and regional governments with their self-evaluation; second, gauging the level of implementation of the enabling conditions; and third, providing a ‘whole of water’ checklist to local and regional governments that wish to embed water security into their blue economies.
Unstable markets
For Bryn Jones, head of fixed income at Rathbones, a tailored approach to dealing with blue economy risks can help promote a just transition. However, Jones points out investors need protection, citing a recent scandal involving a debt-for-ocean deal in Gabon.
“A Gabon blue bond was issued, and the structure was quite complicated because the idea was that 50% of the proceeds would be used for the blue economy, and the other 50% would be used to refinance the existing government debt. However, one of the major problems with the blue economy is the countries that need that investment are often in emerging markets and regions without a strong financial market or with a lack of stability.
“With the Gabon bond, we couldn’t get involved because of the levels of corruption in the country – the same family had run the country since the 1960s and, in fact, the president and his son were arrested only a few weeks after the bond was issued. That’s just one case, but it highlights it can be quite tricky to find the areas that need it most, and also offer some protection for investors. But we are keen to continue to look for the right opportunities.”
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Main threats to the blue economy across survey respondents
Source: OECD
Unlocking potential
Despite the risks explored, investment trends indicate a positive outlook and a strong growth pattern for the blue economy – BlueInvest’s Unlocking the Potential of the Blue Economy report shows the sector reached more than €13bn over the five-year period between 2018-23 in the EU alone – up from €900m between 2000-12.
With greater emphasis placed on policymaking, coherence and implementation from national and regional governments, as highlighted by the OECD, investors can unlock the benefits derived from conserving biodiversity and ecosystems in a sector where, in the EU, a 10km coastal zone is estimated to generate €400bn worth of services annually.
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