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The advent of quantum computing represents the next major technological transformation, driving comprehensive economic and social changes. Here is a short primer on what is expected from the technology.
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The Next Generation of Computing Technology
Quantum computing (QC) is the next generation of computing technology, leveraging quantum physics.
Whereas classical computing relies on the bit, its basic unit, quantum computing relies on the qubit—or any value between qubits, or any combination of them.
“Entanglement” is another fundamental phenomenon that gives QC its power. When two or more qubits are entangled, they act as a single system, much like cogs enmeshed in a gearbox, so that a change to one qubit changes all the others with which it’s entangled. That means a single operation can simultaneously affect the states of many qubits.
Whereas a bit exists according to a binary logic—it’s either 0 or 1, off or on—a qubit can exist in both the 0 state and the 1 state at the same time, in a phenomenon known as “superposition".
The upshot is a startlingly more powerful new type of computing.
There could be between 2,000 and 5,000 quantum computers across the globe by 2030. There were fewer than a dozen in 2018.
Quantum Technologies
Superconducting qubits
Photonics
Quantum ion qubits
Gate architectures
Post-quantum cryptography (PQC)
Quantum key distribution (QKD)
Quantum networks
Quantum sensor
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Typically, companies that need QC don't own their own computers. The idea of on-premises quantum computers isn't currently practical, for a number of key reasons:
• Quantum devices are expensive
• Their operation is complex, and thus expensive
• Given how often quantum devices receive upgrades from their
manufacturers, an individual one would become obsolete quickly
Instead, end users of quantum computers access them via cloud services.
Hardware
Quantum computing in the cloud
Software/APIs
APIs and associated SDKs tend to be open-sourced and, with a few exceptions, written in the Python programming language.
Each leading QC vendor typically provides its own APIs to support its devices or services.
Some vendors, such as IonQ, have decided to support other vendors' APIs rather than to develop their own proprietary APIs. IonQ, for example, supports Qiskit from IBM and Cirq. This approach allows quantum algorithms written in Qiskit for an IBM quantum machine, for example, to be more easily ported to run on an IonQ device.
The future will see a small number of standardized APIs, provided or mandated by the large tech/cloud providers (IBM/Amazon/Microsoft), to which quantum computing hardware vendors will build.
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Proprietary Cloud
Public Cloud
IBM Qiskit: click to read more
Microsoft Q#: click to read more
D-Wave Ocean: click to read more
Xanadu Pennylane: click to read more
EXAMPLES
Post-quantum cryptography is the collective term for new public-key encryption approaches that are resistant to quantum computers. The process of selecting PQC algorithms is being managed by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). Most large organisations are following NIST's lead.
A secure communication method which implements a cryptographic protocol involving components of quantum mechanics. It enables two parties to produce a shared random secret key known only to them, a key which can then be used to encrypt and decrypt messages. It holds the promise of being invulnerable to snooping or “man-in-the-middle” attacks.
Quantum networks allow for the transmission of quantum entangled information over communication channels. They're one of the enabling technologies behind QKD and will allow for both improved security and increased bandwidth.
A device that works by detecting variations in microgravity using the principles of quantum physics, which is based on manipulating nature at the sub-molecular level. Quantum sensing utilizes quantum mechanics properties such as quantum entanglement, quantum interference, and quantum state squeezing to surpass current limits in sensor technology and evade the uncertainty principle.
Entails the design and development of communications networks that are resistant to and safe from potential attacks from quantum computers. A quantum-safe network will deploy approaches such as quantum key distribution and post-quantum cryptography to the ensure that its security and integrity are maintained.
Quantum ion traps are another technology platform being used to develop quantum computers. It involves using electricmagnetic force to confine ions in free space. IonQ is the leading proponent of this approach.
Gate architectures use the quantum equivalent of the logic gates that serve as the building blocks of silicon-based central processing units. Given that fact, a gate-based quantum computer can, in theory at least, compute the same set of problems as a traditional computer.
Photonic systems rely on light pulses and light polarization to create their qubits. Unlike most other qubit technology, they have the advantage of operating at room temperature, but they tend to work much slower than superconducting qubits. Xanadu is the leading company pursuing a photonic-based approach to QC.
One of the leading technology platforms for the development of quantum computers. IBM, Google, D-Wave, and others are putting it to work. Superconducting systems typically operate at a very low temperatures, close to absolute zero in order to create the right conditions of quantum computation.
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Pros and Cons of the Two Approaches
Strengths
Tighter integration between the provider's existing cloud platform and the quantum platform
Reduced network latency between a classical cloud platform and the quantum platform, which will be an advantage for low-latency applications (such as fraud detection)
Weaknesses
Limited selection of quantum computing back-end options
Potential for more restrictive commercial models
Danger of vendor lock-in
CLOUD PROVISION OF QC
PROPRIETARY CLOUD
Quantum
Computer
1
can solve a problem that would require a cluster of
GPUs
512
(click for more)
next gen
computing technology
growth markets
Quantum computers will be appropriate for certain tasks. In the near term, quantum computers will excel at solving complex numerical problems and will co-exist with existing classical computers to enable quantum-classical hybrid systems. Hybridity is important, because while classical computing delivers cut-and-dried outputs, quantum computers deliver outputs in probability distributions, generating sets of answers that may then require winnowing down using classical computers.
Farther into the future, QC has the potential to be transformative. It will make huge improvements
in certain spheres, giving us the wherewithal to create revolutionary new drugs, to optimize the workings of our financial markets, to secure our networks, to understand complex systems, from the earth’s ecologies to global networks of supply and demand—and more.
As for its maximum effects, the horizon is open. Significant changes are in the offing on the social and economic levels: Just like classical computing, QC will be comprehensively transformative in terms of how we live. But the story remains to be written, and the next few decades will be witness to what our best minds can do with this powerful new tool.
Two Architectures,
Two Time Frames
There are two main quantum computing architectures or approaches to designing quantum computers.
Gate-based
Gate-based quantum computers are universal, which means that they’ll be able to compute a wide range of problems. In the future a pharmaceutical company will use one to simulate new drug compounds, exploring the effects of millions of them without having to synthesize and test them.
They’ll start making a commercial impact in
7-10 years
Quantum Annealer
Quantum annealers are specialized for optimization tasks. An airline might use such a computer to prepare an optimal schedule of aircraft routings, one that minimizes fuel use while ensuring that all passenger schedules are met.
They’ll start making a commercial impact in
2-5 years
QC Market Growth
2016
2025
global quantum computing market
$89M
global quantum
computing market (projected)
$949M
QC has the potential to solve problems that are exponentially more complex than the ones that classical computing can solve.
A 1,000-qubit quantum computer (which is forecasted to arrive in 2-3 years) would be able to operate on 10 (that’s a 1 followed by 301 zeros) different so-called “states of information” simultaneously.
A “state” in this context means one possible solution to a given problem. Most possible solutions are going to be wrong, so the more states that we can explore, the better our chances of finding the best solution.
301
Drug Discovery
Cybersecurity
Logistics
Automotive
Simulation
Quantum Computing will improve the drug discovery process by speeding up the identification and simulation of molecules. It will move experiments from wet labs to computers and researchers will have access to chemical combinations that conventional computing would take decades to devise.
Quantum computers do threaten the security backbone of today's networks —RSA public key cryptography. But the quantum technology will also enable new and even more secure forms of communication.
QC will transform our supply chains by handling unprecedentedly complex masses of data related to manufacturing capacity, geography and infrastructure, weather patterns, routing, rail and shipping lane capacity, and beyond.
QC will push us closer to a viable autonomous vehicle ecosystem. Quantum-powered AI and machine learning will speed up the learning process of necessary algorithms. Image classification and 3D object detection will also profit from QC.
QC will provide new capabilities in the modelling of reality. We’ll better foresee extreme weather events, chart climate change, predict how urban development will affect emissions, forecast population growth — and more.
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Computers that are exponentially more powerful
Applications in financial services
A catalyzing effect in other sectors
As they strive for leadership in QC, financial institutions are likely to find that skills and talent development and retention will become a key battleground. Leaders in the application of quantum technologies will see their security, operational efficiency, and product effectiveness grow significantly, whereas laggards will see these aspects of their business eroded.
While we do not expect quantum computers sufficiently powerful to decrypt today's PKI-based cryptosystems for at least 10-12 years, there is significant work to do to prepare them to counter quantum threats.
Early applications for financial services relate to
capital markets
Retail and commercial banking use cases will follow
Derivatives
pricing
Portfolio risk
management
Hedging
strategies
Optimizing
investments
Portfolio risk
management
Offers and
rewards
Portfolio
optimization
Fraud
reduction
Pros and Cons of the Two Approaches
Public CLOUD
In the future, cloud providers may host quantum devices in their data centers alongside their traditional CPU and GPU hardware, thus minimizing latency effects and enabling a new class of high-throughput, low-latency quantum-classical hybrid applications, such as fraud detection and high-frequency trading.
There are currently two approaches to cloud provision of QC:
In this approach, providers offer access to their own QC devices through their own cloud services. IBM is the most important company following this approach, offering QC through its IBM Q Network.
In this approach, leading cloud services provide access to third party vendors’ QC devices. Amazon Braket, for example, offers access to D-Wave, rigetti, Oxford Quantum Circuits, IonQ, and Xanadu, with more in the pipeline. Microsoft Azure Quantum offers access to Quantinuum, IonQ, Quantum Circuits Inc, rigetti, PASQAL, 1QBit, Microsoft QIO, and Toshiba SQBM+.
Strengths
Uses cloud provider's existing access and billing services, and similar shared services
Provides an easy on-ramp to accessing quantum computers, typically with a “pay as you go” model
Provides access to a wide variety of quantum computers, allowing comparison between platforms and identification of the appropriate device for the problem at hand
Weaknesses
Tendency toward higher latency in accessing the quantum device due to network roundtrips and queueing
That, in turn, creates issues in applications such as fraud detection and high-frequency trading that have real-time or low-latency requirements, to the point where such applications may not be practical
Great potential ahead
30% CAGR from 2017 to 2025
Security
Annealing architectures
An annealing architecture is a simpler one, based on the idea of finding the lowest energy state in the quantum system. This lowest energy state corresponds to the optimal solution of an optimization problem.
See what other players in the market are doing in QC
As QC gains traction, we’ll naturally see use cases appear across numerous sectors.
QC has potentially transformative applications in a range of other areas.
The Players in QC Right Now
A variety of hardware vendors are creating their own quantum computers, using a range of different underlying physical phenomena and deploying both universal, gate-based approaches and the quantum annealing approach. These include:
In addition to hardware vendors, each of which typically offers its own software libraries (e.g., IBM qiskit, D-Wave Ocean, Google Cirq), there are also a number of pure-play quantum software vendors. Among them:
EMERGING TECHNOLOGY
Hardware
SOFTWARE
Foundry Primers
Quantum
Computing
Signals
The next generation of computing technology