America 2021
February 15–19, 2021
After the events of 2020 disrupted lives and livelihoods across the United States, the country is geared for a reset. In 2021, leaders, innovators, and change makers can make a telling difference. Here’s the first series of perspectives in McKinsey’s yearlong #America2021 project.
AMERICA 2021: FIVE MEMOS OVER FIVE DAYS
Defeat COVID-19
After World War II, Japan, the United States, and Western Europe “won the peace,” enjoying more than a generation of economic growth that delivered broad-based prosperity. With will and imagination, the United States can replicate that record today as it rebuilds from the COVID-19
COVID-19 was a leading cause of death in the United States in 2020—but with the right strategy in place, it won’t be in 2021.
US annual deaths from influenza and pneumonia, number per 100,000 people
2
15
12
COVID-19 deaths based on January 2020–January 2021 data.Deaths from influenza and pneumonia based on 2018 data.Source: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Rebuild lives and livelihoods
Even as the United States works through the ongoing challenges related to the COVID-19 pandemic, it’s reasonable to hope that the first half of 2021 can be a bridge to normalcy—when many aspects of social and economic life can resume without fear of excess mortality.
Health is not only a cost but also an investment.
Annual US GDP
Poor health costs the United States as much as 16% of GDP, or
in the form of premature deaths and lost productivity
$3.2
trillion
Source: Global Burden of Disease Database
Advance racial equity
Repairing the frayed social fabric in the United States isn’t a new problem. But if the country doesn’t soon address the underlying issues preventing it from achieving equitable growth and inclusion, the economic and social divisions will only become worse.
Black Americans are underrepresented in 20 large occupations.
Black Americans are paid less than white Americans for the same work.
Potential value of closing the representation gap
1
~$89 billion
in annual income
Potential value of closing the wage gap
1
~$44 billion
in annual income
1
Product of representation gap, total workers from all races, and median annual wages earned by Black US workers, per occupation. Source: “ACS 5-yr data, 2014–2018,” IPUMS USA, January 12, 2020, usa.ipums.org
Commit to climate action
The global transition to a carbon economy is well under way. In the United States, 23 states have established reduction goals, and 12 have instituted carbon-pricing policies. Making good on those intentions will require new information, products, operations, and market innovations from public officials and business leaders.
Mapping climate hazards, such as extreme heat, can help decision makers see where risks might arise.
Fahrenheit
Projected increase in annual number of US dayswet-bulb temperature, compared with 1986–2005
>93.2°F
25
By 2050, South Florida may see an increase of up to days annually
Source: McKinsey analysis
Organize for change
The United States is facing domestic headwinds and complexities on a scale that it hasn’t experienced in almost a century, and four priorities loom large. But to effect change, the administration will need to move swiftly and decisively, bringing the whole of government to bear across all four fronts.
Investing time with leadership teams up front can ensure that they understand the goal.
Leaders whoinvested timeup front were
30
x
more successful ...
... thanthose whodid not
Source: 2014 McKinsey survey of organizational redesigns in 1,323 companies
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
McKinsey Global Publishing would like to thank, first and foremost, the authors of these memos for their contributions and analysis. And we want to acknowledge the many direct contributors who collaborated to bring this experience to you, including Nicole Adams, Sharmeen Alam, Zavie Berenbaum, Mike Borruso, Maggie Coffey, Torea Frey, Mona Hamouly, Vasudha Gupta, Eddie Guy, Brennan Hoban, Richard Johnson, Eleni Kostopoulos, Steve Lackey, Stephen Landau, Serena Leogue, Kelly McLaughlin, Philip Mathew, Janet Michaud, Elizabeth Newman, Matt Perry, Kanika Punwani, Dana Sand, Venetia Simcock, Dan Spector, Mark Staples, and Nathan Wilson.
McKinsey’s Public & Social Sector Practice
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