Increasing shale-gas supply will keep prices below $2.8/MMBtu¹
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Shale production, particularly associated gas, will set North American gas prices for long term
Ongoing oil and associated gas production in the Permian Basin will allow the basin to remain a key supply source for the foreseeable future
Permian production will supply roughly 25% of market by 2030
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Once midstream capacity projects wrap up, Appalachia will take a much more major role in North American gas supply
Debottlenecking in Appalachia suggests an anticipated 6% per annum production growth
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While coal retirements will initially lead gas to step in and command much of demand, rapid rise of renewables will limit gas demand in long term
Gas demand will benefit from coal retirements before being displaced by renewables in 2025
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Prices are expected to decrease to roughly $2.5/MMBtu in the long term, but North America’s ability to produce gas below $2.8/MMBtu means it will remain a key supplier for decades
At expected prices, North American gas has enough supply to last 25+ years
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¹MMBtu = million British thermal units
