Demand recovery to 2019 levels is in sight
+
Liquid demand is likely to return to 2019 levels by late 2021 or early 2022. Slower demand recovery would be due to a slow vaccination rollout or if COVID-19 control remains a potential risk.
Investments in oil capital expenditures are expected to gradually recover but remain below the pre-COVID-19 outlook. We expect a slow rebound in shale and offshore in North America.
Oil capital expenditures are unlikely to fully recover
+
After more than 30 years of stable growth of more than
1 percent per year, oil-demand growth slows in the late 2020s and peaks in 2029. Various energy-transition drivers could cause peak to occur six to ten years earlier.
Long-term oil demand is exposed to large variations across all scenarios
+
By 2040, exploration and production companies need
to add 38 MMb/d of new crude production from unsanctioned projects to meet demand.
Most new supply is expected
to come from offshore and
shale resources.
38 MMb/d of
new oil drilling
is needed to meet demand by 2040
+
While most offshore-oil-producing regions will be under pressure in an accelerated energy-transition scenario,
the sector will still require new production of nearly 23 MMb/d to meet demand by 2040. Demand in a 1.5°C-pathway
will force shut-ins.
Even in an accelerated energy-transition scenario, we see need for new oil drilling by 2040
+
