05-GlobalConnection-V17-Ex12-nc

Trade reconfiguration is significant in a fragmented world, while in diversification, the global trade map is largely preserved.

Trade reconfiguration is significant in a fragmented world, while in diversification, the global trade map is largely preserved.

Trade reconfiguration is significant in a fragmented world, while in diversification, the global trade map is largely preserved.

Image description:
A 3-panel chart displays circles representing major global economies and their flows of critical goods and services, measured in billions of dollars. The circles, positioned as if on a world map, are sized in proportion to the economies’ export totals and are grouped as Western (Canada, Germany, rest of Europe 30, UK, US), mid aligned (Africa, Central Asia, India, Latin America, Mexico, Middle East, Southeast Asia, and other Europe), or Eastern (China). The circles are linked to one another by lines indicating the economies’ trading relationships, and the thickness of the lines indicates trade volumes. Each panel depicts different situations. The first shows the actual trading relationship between economies in 2022. The second, a 2035 fragmentation simulation, shows Western economies shifting to intragroup trade relationships and mid-aligning groups shifting trade ties toward China. The third, a 2035 diversification simulation, largely preserves the trade map relative to 2022. Large trade corridors between China and Western economies persist, while mid-aligned economies do not gain share of the global export market.
Note: Represents 20 largest trade corridors for critical goods and services in 2022 by value. Any region not represented in top 20 has its largest trade corridor represented.
Source: McKinsey Global Institute Global Trade Model; McKinsey Global Institute analysis.
End of image description.

Image description:
A 3-panel chart displays circles representing major global economies and their flows of critical goods and services, measured in billions of dollars. The circles, positioned as if on a world map, are sized in proportion to the economies’ export totals and are grouped as Western (Canada, Germany, rest of Europe 30, UK, US), mid aligned (Africa, Central Asia, India, Latin America, Mexico, Middle East, Southeast Asia, and other Europe), or Eastern (China). The circles are linked to one another by lines indicating the economies’ trading relationships, and the thickness of the lines indicates trade volumes. Each panel depicts different situations. The first shows the actual trading relationship between economies in 2022. The second, a 2035 fragmentation simulation, shows Western economies shifting to intragroup trade relationships and mid-aligning groups shifting trade ties toward China. The third, a 2035 diversification simulation, largely preserves the trade map relative to 2022. Large trade corridors between China and Western economies persist, while mid-aligned economies do not gain share of the global export market.
Note: Represents 20 largest trade corridors for critical goods and services in 2022 by value. Any region not represented in top 20 has its largest trade corridor represented.
Source: McKinsey Global Institute Global Trade Model; McKinsey Global Institute analysis.
End of image description.

Image description:
A 3-panel chart displays circles representing major global economies and their flows of critical goods and services, measured in billions of dollars. The circles, positioned as if on a world map, are sized in proportion to the economies’ export totals and are grouped as Western (Canada, Germany, rest of Europe 30, UK, US), mid aligned (Africa, Central Asia, India, Latin America, Mexico, Middle East, Southeast Asia, and other Europe), or Eastern (China). The circles are linked to one another by lines indicating the economies’ trading relationships, and the thickness of the lines indicates trade volumes. Each panel depicts different situations. The first shows the actual trading relationship between economies in 2022. The second, a 2035 fragmentation simulation, shows Western economies shifting to intragroup trade relationships and mid-aligning groups shifting trade ties toward China. The third, a 2035 diversification simulation, largely preserves the trade map relative to 2022. Large trade corridors between China and Western economies persist, while mid-aligned economies do not gain share of the global export market.
Note: Represents 20 largest trade corridors for critical goods and services in 2022 by value. Any region not represented in top 20 has its largest trade corridor represented.
Source: McKinsey Global Institute Global Trade Model; McKinsey Global Institute analysis.
End of image description.