The 1.5-degree challenge
Holding warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels could limit the most dangerous and irreversible effects of climate change.
At our current pace, we won’t make it
The next decade is critical
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2040
2050
Historical trends,
~5°C by 2100
Current trends,
~3.5 °C
2°C
pathway
1.5°C
pathway
Projected global CO₂ emissions,
GtCO₂ per year
What’s the climate math for businesses?
Three scenarios model the decarbonization needed to keep to the 1.5-degree pathway. If one source moves higher, others must move lower to make up the difference.
Scenario A
Scenario B
Scenario C
Scenario A
Scenario B
Scenario C
Emissions per source, GtCO₂
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
–2
–4
Scenario B
Scenario C
2016
2030
Scenario A
Scenario B
Scenario C
All sectors decarbonize to a very large extent, at a pace set by technology readiness, cost-effectiveness, and ease of implementation.
Oil fuels transport for longer. The transport sector rapidly decarbonizes—but much less rapidly than in other scenarios. To compensate, deforestation is nearly halted, and an area the size of Egypt is reforested by 2030.
The power sector undergoes a more paced switch. Coal and gas-fired power plants persist
for a longer period. Deforestation all but halts, and an area twice the size of Sweden is reforested by 2030.
All of the 1.5°C scenarios would require major business, economic, and societal shifts—each enormous in its own right, and with intricate interdependencies. We identified five critical shifts and determined what it would take for them to occur.
So what would need to change?
1. Reform food and forestry
Reform agriculture and food systems
Halt deforestation
Reform agriculture and food systems
Halt deforestation
Electrified transport
Electrified buildings
2. Electrify our lives
Electrified transport
Tackle methane
Increase industrial efficiency
3. Reshape industrial operations
Electrify industrial processes
Tackle methane
Increase industrial efficiency
Electrify industrial processes
4. Decarbonize power and fuel
Renewables
Hydrogen
Bioenergy
Renewables
Hydrogen
Bioenergy
Carbon capture, use, and storage (CCUS)
Reforestation
5. Ramp up carbon management and markets
Carbon capture, use, and storage (CCUS)
Reforestation
A way forward
A 1.5°C pathway would require immediate and comprehensive action. The pace and magnitude of change would be unprecedented, but continuing on society’s current trajectory would widen the gap to a 1.5°C pathway and create significant uncertainty and risk for businesses.
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Learn more about McKinsey perspectives on climate change
Read the McKinsey Quarterly article, “Climate math: What a 1.5-degree pathway would take”
Read the McKinsey Quarterly article, “Climate math: What a 1.5-degree pathway would take”
Learn about decarbonization options in various industries
Learn about decarbonization options in various industries
Learn about the physical and socioeconomic effects of climate change
Learn about the physical and socioeconomic effects of climate change
Electrified buildings
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Read the article
Drawing from our expertise across industries, we’ve modeled three possible scenarios. Every part of the global economy would need to rapidly decarbonize.
Here’s how we would get there
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Historical trends,
~5°C by 2100
Current trends,
~3.5°C
1.5°C
pathway
Projected global CO₂ emissions,
billion metric tons of carbon dioxide (GtCO₂) per year
The next decade is critical
Industry
Transport
Power
Buildings
Deforestation
Agriculture
CO₂ removal
Scenario A
Scenario B
Scenario C
Reform agriculture and food systems
Halt deforestation
Electrified transport
Electrified buildings
Increase industrial efficiency
Electrify industrial processes
Renewables
Hydrogen
Bioenergy
Carbon capture, use, and storage (CCUS)
Reforestation
Scenario A
20
%
of annual greenhouse-gas emissions come from agriculture—and methane is the primary contributor.
The culprit? Cows.
If cows were a country, they would be among the top greenhouse-gas emitters.
A 1.5-degree pathway would require multiple changes to our food systems:
multiple changes
Reduce the share of beef and lamb in global protein consumption
Adopt new rice-cultivation methods
Curb food loss and waste
•
•
•
~15
%
of CO₂ emissions come from deforestation. On balance, an area the size of Greece is currently deforested each year.
By 2030, deforestation would need to decline by more than three-quarters. If certain economic sectors decarbonize more slowly, deforestation would have to be nearly halted to compensate.
15
%
of CO₂ emitted each year comes from road transport—another top source of global emissions.
To reduce transport emissions, a widespread shift to zero-carbon alternatives such as electrification would be required.
~7
%
of total CO₂ emissions come from cooking and heating in buildings.
20
%
of CO₂ emissions from space and water heating, the two largest contributors of building emissions, would be abated via electrification.¹
¹Assumes electricity comes from clean sources.
14.4
7.9
7.8
3.1
3.0
40
%
of annual greenhouse-gas emissions.¹
Methane, the second most potent greenhouse gas, makes up
¹Based on global warming potential over 20 years (GWP 20).
Much of the methane emitted each year comes from the oil and gas and coal-mining industries.
These industries would need to cut their fugitive methane emissions by about 60% by 2030 and by more than 90% by 2050. This could be achieved through reduced demand, leak repairs, and gas recovery.
40
%
of carbon emissions come from industry, a broad sector that includes metals, chemicals, mining, and other processes, each with unique technical requirements.
1/3
By 2050, embracing the circular economy, boosting efficiency, and optimizing processes would enable a wide cross-section of heavy industries to abate
of their 2016 carbon emissions.
For example
Circular economy: Increased use of scrap steel and recycled plastics
Boosting efficiency: Use of advanced analytics to reduce fuel consumption in cement kilns
Substitution: Use of low-carbon alternatives, such as volcanic rock in cement making
65
%
of industrial CO₂ emissions come from the combustion of fossil fuels.
Electrifying heating processes is the
most important decarbonization lever, especially for low- to medium-temperature industries such as construction, food, textiles, and manufacturing.
13%
1%
4%
91%
40
%
of global CO₂ emissions come from the power sector.
Nearly two-thirds of the world’s power is currently generated using coal and natural gas. As a result,
A big increase in renewables would be needed to rapidly shift the energy mix.
8
×
would need to be installed yearly by 2030 compared with current levels.
more solar panels
5
×
more wind turbines
In many industries, including ethylene and steelmaking, electrification is not an adequate option to decarbonize.
Deep decarbonization would require hydrogen, generated in a low-carbon manner: produced either using renewable power (“green” hydrogen) or from natural gas with carbon capture (“blue” hydrogen).
The technical requirements of industries such as aviation, marine transport, cement making, and ethylene production make those industries especially difficult to decarbonize using electricity or hydrogen.
Bioenergy—fuels and feedstocks produced from sustainably harvested biomass or waste—would play a key role in replacing fossil fuels, particularly in those hard-to-abate industries, contributing 3% of total CO₂ abatement by 2050.
Top uses of bioenergy by 2050, % of each industry’s 2016 CO₂ emissions reduced via bioenergy
Ethylene
Aviation
Ammonia
Marine transport
Iron and steel
Cement
Global average
23%
21%
15%
15%
12%
8%
3%
A 1.5-degree pathway will remain out of reach without also capturing, using, and/or storing CO₂.
CCUS involves capturing CO₂ from point sources (such as ammonia plants) or directly from the air—and using or storing it to prevent its release into the atmosphere.
A mix of innovation, commercialization, and favorable regulation would be needed to grow CCUS faster than currently projected—with lower costs and at greater scale.
Annual CO₂ capture capacity, GtCO₂ per year
CO₂
2016
2030
2050
0.03
1.67
4.25
~50×
Every scenario would require rapid reforestation to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. If sectors decarbonized more slowly, greater reforestation would be needed to offset their emissions.
80 million hectares
By 2030, on top of curbing deforestation and replacing forest lost to fires, the world would need to have expanded its forested land by at least
300 million hectares
By 2050, the world’s forested land would need to have expanded by at least
Emissions per source, billion metric tons of carbon dioxide (GtCO₂)
Scenario A
Scenario B
Scenario C
2016
2030
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
–2
–4
Industry
Transport
Power
Buildings
Deforestation
Agriculture
CO₂ removal
Scenario A
All sectors decarbonize to a very large extent, at a pace set by technology readiness, cost-effectiveness, and ease of implementation.
Scenario B
Oil fuels transport for longer. The transport sector rapidly decarbonizes—but much less rapidly than in other scenarios. To compensate, deforestation is nearly halted, and an area the size of Egypt is reforested by 2030.
Scenario C
The power sector undergoes a more paced switch. Coal and gas-fired power plants persist for a longer period. Deforestation all but halts, and an area twice the size of Sweden is reforested by 2030.
Three scenarios model the decarbonization needed to keep to the 1.5-degree pathway. While big cuts are needed everywhere, if one source moves higher, others must move lower to make up the difference.
What’s the climate math for businesses?
Scenario A
Scenario B
Scenario C
—an area the size of Turkey.
—an area nearly one-third the size of the United States.
Tackle methane
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