Seven demand drivers have the potential to affect 2040 global volumes.
Potential impact on 2040 nutrient volumes, %
Select a driver to see the impact
Accelerated adoption of precision agtech
Accelerated adoption of precision agtech
Accelerated adoption of precision agtech
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Accelerated adoption of next-gen inputs
Accelerated adoption of next-gen inputs
Accelerated adoption of next-gen inputs
90–110
90–95
90–95
Up to 95
Up to 95
Up to 95
100–105
Nitrogen
Diphosphorus pentoxide
(P2O5)
Rising regulation in agriculture
Rising regulation in agriculture
Rising regulation in agriculture
90–110
90–95
90–95
Up to 95
Up to 95
Up to 95
100–105
Increasing application rates in Africa
Increasing application rates in Africa
Increasing application rates in Africa
Potassium oxide (K2O)
90–110
90–95
Up to 95
Up to 95
100–105
100
Up to 95
Declining application rates in China and India
Declining application rates in China and India
Declining application rates in China and India
2040 estimated volumes (100%)
Increasing soil degradation
Increasing soil degradation
Increasing soil degradation
Today, the average combined application rate across N, P, and K nutrients in Africa (Morocco and South Africa) is about 120 kg per hectare, compared with about 135 kg per hectare globally.
Compared with the world average, China and India’s application rates are about 30 kg per hectare higher for N and P and about 10 kg per hectare higher for K.
Agriculture contributes approximately 15% to global emissions, with N fertilizers alone accounting for approximately 3% of this total due to manufacturing and on-farm emissions.
Approximately 20% of farmers globally have already adopted biostimulants, and an additional 6% anticipate adopting them in the next 2 years.
Today, 20–30% of farmers globally have adopted precision agriculture hardware, and an additional 5% anticipate adopting it in the next 2 years.
As global demand for food, livestock, and fuel grows, and as rising global temperatures shift global weather patterns, land use is expected to shift, causing a projected decline in overall fertilizer volumes.
There is debate about the potential impact of soil degradation:
it could either require more fertilizer to offset declining soil
health, or it could reduce yields such that applying more fertilizer is unprofitable.
Shifting land use
Shifting land use
Shifting land use
Source: The net-zero transition: What it could cost, what it could bring, McKinsey Global Institute, January 2022
Source: McKinsey Nutrient Demand Model
Source: FAOSTAT; International Fertilizer Association (IFA); McKinsey Nutrient Demand Model
Source: McKinsey Global Farmer Survey, 2024
Source: McKinsey Global Farmer Survey, 2024
Source: “Striking the balance: Catalyzing a sustainable land-use transition,” McKinsey, November 7, 2023
Source: McKinsey analysis
McKinsey & Company