MGI Labor Shortage

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Japan

Germany

Canada

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Canada

Germany

Japan

Australia

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Australia

France

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France

Italy

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Italy

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All eight economies

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All eight economies

Change in number of surplus workers, 2010–23, million

Note: Canada data spans only 2015–23. Figures may not sum because of rounding. Source: Employment data from International Labour Organization; vacancy data from Eurostat; UK Office for National Statistics; Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, Japan; DARES (France); Statistics Canada; Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Australian Bureau of Statistics; population data from UN Population Prospects; McKinsey Global Institute analysis

McKinsey & Company

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A waterfall-style vertical bar chart for the US shows the same sequence of bar segments plotting the net decrease of surplus workers from 12.4 million in 2010 to –2.6 million in 2023. The three labor supply bars sum to an increase of 14.1 million surplus workers, and the three labor demand bars show a 29.1 million decrease.
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A waterfall-style vertical bar chart for Japan shows the same sequence of bar segments plotting the net decrease of surplus workers from 2.0 million in 2010 to –0.7 million in 2023. The three labor supply bars sum to an increase of 3.0 million surplus workers, and the three labor demand bars show a 5.8 million decrease.
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A waterfall-style vertical bar chart for France shows the same sequence of bar segments plotting the net decrease of surplus workers from 2.7 million in 2010 to 2.1 million in 2023. The three labor supply bars sum to an increase of 2.7 million surplus workers, and the three labor demand bars show a 3.4 million decrease.
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The first of 9 waterfall-style vertical bar charts shows 6 bar segments arranged left to right with positive and negative values representing the net decrease of surplus workers across the 8 highlighted countries from a starting point of 24.4 million in 2010 to an ending point of 1.0 million in 2023. The first 3 bars represent labor supply factors of population growth, participation growth, and aging, which result in an increase of 33.3 million surplus workers. The next 3 bars represent labor demand factors of new jobs, reduced unemployment, and job vacancies, resulting in a decrease of 56.7 million surplus workers. Note: This exhibit includes 8 more images, which show the same information for each of the highlighted countries.
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Image description:
A waterfall-style vertical bar chart for Germany shows the same sequence of bar segments plotting the net decrease of surplus workers from 1.9 million in 2010 to –0.3 million in 2023. The three labor supply bars sum to an increase of 3.8 million surplus workers, and the three labor demand bars show a 6.0 million decrease.
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A waterfall-style vertical bar chart for Canada shows the same sequence of bar segments plotting the net decrease of surplus workers from 0.9 million in 2015 to 0.6 million in 2023. The three labor supply bars sum to an increase of 2.3 million surplus workers, and the three labor demand bars show a 2.7 million decrease.
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A waterfall-style vertical bar chart for the UK shows the same sequence of bar segments plotting the net decrease of surplus workers from 2.1 million in 2010 to 0.4 million in 2023. The three labor supply bars sum to an increase of 3.0 million surplus workers, and the three labor demand bars show a 4.6 million decrease.
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A waterfall-style vertical bar chart for Italy shows the same sequence of bar segments plotting the net decrease of surplus workers from 1.9 million in 2010 to 1.4 million in 2023. The three labor supply bars sum to an increase of 1.1 million surplus workers, and the three labor demand bars show a 1.7 million decrease.
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A waterfall-style vertical bar chart for Australia shows the same sequence of bar segments plotting the net decrease of surplus workers from 0.4 million in 2010 to 0.2 million in 2023. The three labor supply bars sum to an increase of 3.2 million surplus workers, and the three labor demand bars show a 3.5 million decrease.
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