The impact
Lower C0₂ emissions
In some cities, the smog can become so heavy that governments issue health warnings. Assuming that travelers switch from private cars to bicycles for 22.5 percent of kilometers traveled, the size of the car parc would drop from about 520,000 vehicles to around 400,000, reducing emissions. After factoring in the emissions associated with bicycle manufacture, we estimated that total annual emissions would fall by about 500 tons⁴ in our hypothetical city. This reduction is equivalent to the annual emissions generated by about 71,000 Europeans, which represents about 7 percent of the city’s population.⁵
Emissions would fall by
500 tons
in our city
⁴
Metric tons: 1 metric ton = 2,205 pounds.
⁵
“Greenhouse gas emissions per capita in the European Union (EU-27) from 1990 to 2021 (in metric tons of CO2 equivalent),” European Environmental Agency, April 18, 2023.
More green space
As residents increasingly favor bikes over cars, cities will also be able to reclaim space currently used for parking, freeing up about 1.4 km2 that could potentially be turned into parks or other green areas—that’s equivalent to almost 200 football fields, or the size of Hyde Park in London.
Our city could reclaim
1.4 km²
of space currently used for parking
Lower waste and water consumption
The manufacturing process for a single car weighing 1.5 tons generates about 70 tons of waste and requires about 400,000 liters of water for all production stages from raw-material extraction to final assembly. The shift to bike transport, as depicted in our scenario, could potentially reduce the number of cars produced and thus reduce waste by about 8 million tons and water consumption by about 40 billion liters annually. (While traditional and electric bicycle output would increase, the associated manufacturing process is less intense.) To appreciate the size of the 8 million ton decrease in waste, consider that this is the same amount that would be generated by 15 million Europeans at their residences. Likewise, the 40 billion liter drop in water usage is equivalent to the annual consumption of 720,000 European households.
Our city could reduce waste by
8 million tons
Greater free time and productivity
Sitting in traffic is not just frustrating, it’s also a waste of valuable time. In our increased bike-transport scenario, workers in the average European city would gain a cumulative total of about 200,000 more days each year to spend at home or at work if micromobility gains ground, leading to less congested roads. That translates to about 25 hours in annual time savings per driver. As residents spend more time in productive activities, the city’s average annual GDP would rise about 83 million euros, or 0.2 percent.
City residents would gain
200,000
days to spend at home or work each year
Lower mobility spending
As consumers switch from cars to much less expensive bicycles, their mobility spending will drop. Even after factoring in the cost of electricity for e-bikes, net savings will amount to about 1,330 euros per car driver each year—money they can save or funnel into other areas.
Savings would amount to
€1,330
per car driver each year