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The Earth has warmed by roughly 1.1ºC since the late 1800s. This year is on course to be the hottest since record keeping began.
Losing our cool
Can the world pay attention to climate change—even while fighting the coronavirus? Experts say we can’t afford to do otherwise.
The other global crisis
In this edition:
Climate risk and response: Physical hazards and socioeconomic impacts
Report – McKinsey Global Institute
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Climate risk and response: Physical hazards and socioeconomic impacts
Climate math: What a
1.5-degree pathway would take
Climate math: What a
1.5-degree pathway would take
Article – McKinsey Quarterly
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A quick briefing in five—
or a fifty-minute deeper dive
The cow-burp problem
Some innovations are already in the works, including masks that could capture the ruminant methane that contributes as much as 10 percent of global greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions.
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Climate math: What a 1.5-degree pathway would take
Climate math: What a 1.5-degree pathway would take
Article – McKinsey Quarterly
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Climate risk and response: Physical hazards and socioeconomic impacts
Climate risk and response: Physical hazards and socioeconomic impacts
At the limit
Further warming may be unavoidable,
but limiting it to 1.5ºC above preindustrial levels would reduce its most dangerous and irreversible effects.
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Beyond the belch
But the needed GHG reductions go beyond the barnyard—and inescapably include reducing CO₂ emissions. Here are three scenarios for a 1.5ºC path.
These face masks for cows have nothing to do with coronavirus
These face masks for cows have nothing to do with coronavirus
Bloomberg
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These face masks for cows have nothing to do with coronavirus
These face masks for cows have nothing to do with coronavirus
Bloomberg
1.4
1.0
0.6
0.2
0
–0.4
–0.2
0.4
0.8
1.2
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
Observations
Smooth trend
Global average temperature anomaly relative to 1880–1900 average, ºC
This year is on course to be the hottest
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2005
15
25
35
45
2050
Historical trends,
up to 4.8°C
by 2100
Current trends,
~3.5°C
1.5°C pathway
Projected global CO₂ emissions, GtCO₂ per year
A dairy cow wears Zelp’s methane-capturing face mask.
Photo courtesy of Zelp.
2016
2030
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
–2
–4
Scenario A
Scenario B
Scenario C
Industry
Transport
Power
Buildings
Deforestation
Agriculture
CO₂ removal
The decarbonization is set by technology readiness, cost-effectiveness, and ease of implementation
Scenario A
Scenario A
Industry
Transport
Power
Buildings
Deforestation
Agriculture
CO₂ removal
Oil fuels transport for longer; reforestation and curbing deforestation abate the additional emissions
Scenario B
Scenario B
Industry
Transport
Power
Buildings
Deforestation
Agriculture
CO₂ removal
Coal and gas generate power for longer; reforestation and curbing deforestation abate the surplus CO₂
Scenario C
Scenario C
Emissions per source, GtCO₂
Scenario A
Scenario B
Scenario C
Climate math: What a
1.5-degree pathway would take
Climate math: What a
1.5-degree pathway would take
Article – McKinsey Quarterly
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Five broad shifts
Underlying these scenarios are five major business, economic, and societal shifts that would help us transition.
Shift 5 of 5
Deep decarbonization would also require major initiatives to either capture carbon from the point at which it is generated (such as ammonia-production facilities or thermalpower plants) or remove CO₂ from the atmosphere itself.
Ramping up carbon-capture and carbon-sequestration activity
Shift 4 of 5
Scaling renewables to decarbonize the power system would allow the downstream users of electricity—everything from factories to fleets of electric vehicles—to live up to their own decarbonization potential and address the
80 percent of global energy demand accounted for by fossil fuels.
Decarbonizing power and fuel
Shift 2 of 5
Electrifying the road-transportation sector and the buildings in which we live and work would help eliminate 42 percent of today’s yearly CO₂ emissions.
Electrifying our lives
Shift 3 of 5
Electrifying a broad swath of industries, as part of a collection of operational adaptations, could address 33 percent of today’s annual carbon emissions.
Adapting industrial operations
Shift 1 of 5
Changes to what we eat, how it’s farmed, and how much we waste could address
20 percent of today’s greenhouse-gas emissions, while halting deforestation could address 15 percent of CO₂ emissions.
Reforming food and forestry
Climate math: What a
1.5-degree pathway would take
Climate math: What a
1.5-degree pathway would take
Article – McKinsey Quarterly
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