McKinsey Quarterly
Reimaging mobility
How we experience mobility is poised to change profoundly—a “horses to cars”-sized shift that will reverberate across business and society for generations. Some implications are predictable, others unknowable. Yet one thing is certain: mobility’s future will be determined by developments along four interrelated dimensions: cars, consumers, cities, and competition.
1
Cars: A hands-free future
“What if the car drives autonomously, and we create a space of well-being where you can be connected, work, be entertained, shop, whatever.”
—Carsten Breitfeld, CEO of Byton
The advent of the “horseless carriage” and the automobiles that followed proved a flashpoint for sweeping technological, economic, and social change. What are the benefits, costs, and consequences for the world this time around?
Share of miles driven by nearly or fully
autonomous vehicles
2016
~1%
2020–25
up to
70%
Mobility’s second great inflection point
Reimagining mobility:
A CEO’s guide
2030
80%
If the United States fully adopted autonomous vehicles, the public benefit would exceed $800 billion a year in 2030.
Consumers: In the driver’s seat
2
~1
billion hours
How we experience mobility, and the ecosystem of products and services surrounding it, will depend on where we live. Nonetheless, getting from point A
to point B promises to be easier, safer, faster—and a lot more productive.
time saved daily for global commuters by digitally connected autonomous vehicles
Snapshots of the global mobility revolution
The trends transforming mobility’s future
“Low-carbon smart mobility is the name of the game—anything that reduces emissions or improves mobility . . . is where we play.”
Cities: At the crossroads
3
—Josipa Petrunic, CEO of CUTRIC
The road to seamless urban mobility
The public–private imperative in urban mobility: A view from Canada
Urban life could become greener, cleaner, safer, and ultimately better. Or not.
As boundaries blur among private, shared,
and public transport the need for effective collaboration grows. Are public- and private-sector players up for the challenge?
–10%
drop in travel
in private cars
via regulations and incentives could lead to …
Reimagining urban transport
–10%
drop in congestion
+30%
increase in system capacity
New carmaker on the block: Byton’s CEO on China’s car of the future
Competition between OEMs and “mobility upstarts” will intensify, further upending industry dynamics. Formerly clear industry borders and siloed business sectors won’t stay that way for long in the new mobility ecosystem, and value shifts are likely to be quick and unpredictable.
Competitors: Bumpy road ahead
4
Auto OEMs, tech giants, and start-ups will jockey for position
in the new mobility ecosystem.
100% = $ 7.7 trillion
of revenues will
come from disrupted business areas
56%
Global automotive ecosystem revenues by 2030
For example, e-hailing, partially or fully automated vehicles, or algorithm-based insurance
Sharing in mobility:
An interview with Lyft’s Raj Kapoor
Powering mobility’s future: An interview with WiTricity’s Alex Gruzen
Mobility’s second great inflection point
Reimagining mobility:
A CEO’s guide
The road to seamless urban mobility
Snapshots of the global mobility revolution
The trends transforming mobility’s future
Coming soon
The public–private imperative in urban mobility: A view from Canada
Coming soon
Coming soon
New carmaker on the block: Byton’s CEO on China’s car of the future
Sharing in mobility:
An interview with Lyft’s Raj Kapoor
Powering mobility’s future: An interview with WiTricity’s Alex Gruzen
Coming soon
Coming soon
Coming soon
Ford’s evolving sense
of self: An interview with Hau Thai-Tang
Coming soon
Ford’s evolving sense
of self: An interview with Hau Thai-Tang
Ford’s evolving sense
of self: An interview with Hau Thai-Tang
Snapshots of the global mobility revolution
The trends transforming mobility’s future
The public–private imperative in urban mobility: A view from Canada
New carmaker on the block: Byton’s CEO on China’s car of the future
Sharing in mobility:
An interview with Lyft’s Raj Kapoor
Powering mobility’s future: An interview with WiTricity’s Alex Gruzen