"NIGHT
OF
MURDER"
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On the brink of nuclear war in South Asia
Anne Pellegrino Jeffrey Lewis
In February 2019, India and Pakistan experienced a severe crisis that might well have ended in a nuclear exchange. To understand just how easily the Balakot crisis could have escalated, scroll down and watch the scenario unfold.
"qatal ki raat"
Timeline of Events
Modi in Patan, Gujarat on April 21, 2019
Bharatiya Janata Party, YouTube
The return of Wing Commander Varthaman was critical. In this clip, Prime Minister Narendra Modi tells an audience at a campaign rally that if the pilot had not been freed India would have unleashed a "night of murder". We will never know if Modi was bluffing, but a missile strike on Pakistan could easily have spiraled into nuclear war.
February 14
Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) suicide bombing kills 46 Indian security personnel
pulwama district
February 26
Balakot, Pakistan
February 27
Line of control
march 1
wagah border
India conducts airstrikes against JeM targets in mainland Pakistan
India and Pakistan engage in air combat over Kashmir. Indian pilot Abhinandan Varthaman
is captured
Pakistan releases captured Indian pilot as a "peace gesture"
1. pulwama
2. balakot
4. wagah border
The Brahmos
Some Indian press outlets reported that an Indian missile strike on Pakistan would have consisted of half a dozen BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles armed with conventional warheads. One key question is whether Pakistan would have understood the missile strike was a limited conventional one, or whether Pakistani leaders would have misinterpreted it as the beginning of a larger surprise attack.
solid fuel
booster
liquid fuel
ramjet
air intake
"Cold water on cold start"
"Circumstances are conceivable in which India might find it useful to strike first, for instance, against NWS that had declared it would certainly use its weapons, and if India were certain that adversary's launch was imminent."
To guard against an Indian surprise attack, known as "Cold Start," Pakistan would almost certainly respond to any Indian missile strike by moving its missiles into the field where they would be harder for India to target. This would include close-range Nasr nuclear armed missiles and strategic nuclear armed ballistic missiles like the Shaheen. The Nasr is designed to destroy Indian ground forces while the Shaheen can threaten Indian cities.
Shivshankar Menon,
Former National Security Advisor of India
the Consequences
of Nuclear war
300 kg
warhead
Who goes first?
Humanitarian
Climatic
Societal
The effects of a "limited" nuclear exchange would not be restricted to the borders of Pakistan and India. Experts believe that global economic disruption, disease epidemics, and political turmoil would follow a regional nuclear war.
According to scientific studies, an exchange of one hundred
15 kiloton nuclear weapons (the size of the bomb dropped on Hiroshima) would cause firestorms that would eject 5-6.6 million metric tons of black soot into the atmosphere. As a result, global temperatures would drop, negatively impacting crop yields of maize, rice, wheat, and soybeans, and putting two billion people at risk of starvation in South Asia. The effects could be even worse, given that India and Pakistan possess nuclear weapons that reportedly vary in yield from 12-40 kilotons and 5-12 kilotons, respectively.
For more information, read Nuclear Famine: Two Billion People at Risk?
A bright flash of light and a deafening boom would precede the near-instantaneous deaths of hundreds of thousands of civilians in India and Pakistan. Those that survive the initial blast would either be consumed by the resulting firestorms or experience a painful death caused by acute radiation sickness. Some may survive, still, unable to comprehend the destruction around them.
1
2
3
4
3. line of control
The BrahMos has a range of 290 km - far enough to target Pakistani cities from bases in western India
The Nasrs would be deployed to the border region as part of general mobilization efforts
velocity:
mach 2.8
Cruise altitude: 14-15 km
On the edge of disaster
Experience created by the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies for the Nuclear Threat Initiative
Major Moments in the balakot crisis
Nasr test, January 31, 2019. ISPR Official Video
Once Indian leaders learn that Pakistan is putting missiles into the field, they must make a crucial decision: are the missiles being dispersed for protection or as part of a plan to retaliate? With missile flight times of only a few minutes, Indian leaders have almost no time to decide. Although India has a no first use pledge, some officials have argued that India should be prepared to use nuclear weapons in a scenario like this.
"Pohkran is the area which witnessed Atal Ji's firm resolve to make India a nuclear power and yet remain firmly committed to the doctrine of 'No First Use'. India has strictly adhered to this doctrine. What happens in the future depends on the circumstances."
Rajnath Singh,
Defense Minister of India
Nuclear-armed neighbors
The brinksmanship on display during the Balakot crisis is reminiscent of the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War. The United States and the Soviet Union, of course, experienced similar crises, but always stepped back from the brink. One key difference may be time. The United States and the Soviet Union had approximately 30 minutes of decision time before an incoming intercontinental-range ballistic missile reached its target. In contrast, India and Pakistan share a border, meaning that it would only take a few minutes for a missile to reach its destination, leaving Indian and Pakistani leaders with virtually no decision time.
To learn more visit:
www.nti.org/analysis/articles/night-murder-brink-nuclear-war-south-asia
View Sources
Hover on icons to view consequences
Hover to learn more about the BrahMos
sources
Header Image: India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses his supporters during an election campaign rally in Patan, Gujarat, April 21, 2019. REUTERS/Amit Dave
Timeline of Events
Saheli Roy Choudhury, “Timeline: India and Pakistan’s latest confrontation over Kashmir,” CNBC, 1 March 2019, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/01/india-pakistan-conflict-timeline.html
“Qatal Ki Raat”
Bharatiya Janata Party, “PM Shri Narendra Modi addresses public meeting in Patan, Gujarat: 21.04.2019,” Filmed [April 2019], YouTube video, Posted [April 2019], https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxZGbwCcCd0
The BrahMos
Rajat Pandit, “Response to Pulwama attack: Precision air strikes the favoured option,” Times of India, 15 February 2019, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/response-to-pulwama-attack-precision-air-strikes-the-favoured-option/articleshow/68017170.cms?from=mdr
“Cold Water on Cold Start”
Christopher Clary and Vipin Narang, “India’s Counterforce Temptations: Strategic Dilemmas, Doctrine, and Capabilities,” International Security 43, no. 3 (February 15, 2019), p. 7–52. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00340.
Who Goes First?
Vipin Narang, “Plenary: beyond the Nuclear Threshold: Causes and Consequences of First Use,” (prepared remarks, Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference, Washington, D.C., March 20, 2017). https://fbfy83yid9j1dqsev3zq0w8n-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/Vipin-Narang-Remarks-Carnegie-Nukefest-2017.pdf
Singh, Rajnath. Twitter Post. August 16, 2019, 1:16 AM, https://twitter.com/rajnathsingh/status/1162276901055893504
The Consequences of Nuclear War
Toon, Owen B., Charles G. Bardeen, Alan Robock, Lili Xia, Hans Kristensen, Matthew Mckinzie, R. J. Peterson, Cheryl S. Harrison, Nicole S. Lovenduski, and Richard P. Turco. “Rapidly Expanding Nuclear Arsenals in Pakistan and India Portend Regional and Global Catastrophe.” Science Advances 5, no. 10 (October 2, 2019). https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aay5478.
Ira Helfand, “Nuclear Famine: Two Billion People at Risk?” International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War/Physicians for Social Responsibility, November 2013, https://www.psr.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/two-billion-at-risk.pdf
Footer Image: Pakistani military personnel stand beside a Shaheen III surface-to-surface ballistic missile during Pakistan Day military parade in Islamabad, Pakistan, March 23, 2017. REUTERS/Faisal Mahmood
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