Canadian Mid-Market
In Q2 2025, the Bank of Canada (BoC) held its key interest rate steady at 2.75% during the April and June 2025 announcements, marking a pause in policy changes after seven consecutive rate cuts between June 2024 and March 2025. The BoC’s decision to hold the policy rate reflects a strategic response to intersecting macroeconomic dynamics. This includes ongoing uncertainty around U.S. tariffs and a Canadian economy that, while exhibiting signs of deceleration, continues to demonstrate underlying resilience. Additionally, inflation came in below expectations, prompting the need for close monitoring of disinflationary pressures from softer economic activity and inflationary pressures driven by elevated costs.
Reflecting these broader economic trends, M&A activity experienced a moderate decline in Q2 2025. The downturn was primarily driven by rising geopolitical risks, persistent uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs, and mixed expectations regarding the timing of future interest rate cuts. Buyers have adopted a more cautious stance as a result, with transactions being delayed in the near term as they wait to see if borrowing costs will decline.
M&A activity declined by 6.0% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ), with the number of transactions decreasing from 249 in Q1 2025 to 234 in Q2 2025. The chart above summarizes transaction count by sector in Q2 2025. Corresponding sector highlights are noted below:
234
Transactions
Energy 11
Consumer Staples 06
Utililites 02
Materials 35
Industrials 62
Financials 35
Information Technology 39
Communication Services 14
Consumer Discretionary 20
Health Care 10
Q2 2025 Transaction Count by Sector
The Information Technology sector followed with 39 transactions, accounting for 16.7% of the total transaction count in Q2 2025. A notable transaction within the Information Technology sector was Kaynes Canada Limited’s acquisition of August Electronics Inc. at an EV of $57.0 million.
The Industrials sector led the quarter with 62 transactions, accounting for 26.5% of the total transaction count in Q2 2025. A notable transaction within the Industrials sector was Mullen Group Ltd.’s acquisition of The Cole Group at an Enterprise Value (EV) of $190.0 million.
The Energy sector recorded the highest growth in transaction volume, with 11 closed deals in Q2 2025 compared to four deals in Q1 2025. This increase was primarily driven by the newly elected Prime Minister’s commitment to advancing projects that enhance Canada’s energy security, diversifying trade, and strengthening long-term competitiveness in response to U.S. tariffs.
Quarterly Transaction Count
Transaction Count
Equity Markets
Canadian Mid-Market
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Equity Markets
Canadian Economic Update
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The S&P/TSX Composite Index gained 7.3% in Q2 2025, with 8 of 10 sectors experiencing positive returns.
The Information Technology sector gained 14.0% in Q2 2025, outperforming the broader market. Celestica Inc. led the sector with an 88.2% increase in share price, driven by strong quarterly results and the launch of its ES1500 switch.
The Consumer Discretionary sector delivered a 12.5% return in Q2 2025, with 8 of 9 constituents posting share price gains. Aritzia Inc. led the sector with a 40.5% increase in share price after reporting a Q4 year-over-year (YoY) increase of 311.0% in net income.
The Financials sector rose 10.6% in Q2 2025, as 22 of 25 constituents posted share price gains. Sector growth was largely driven by Sprott Inc., which recorded a 46.7% increase in share price following an 11.0% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) rise in assets under management.
The Energy sector recorded the largest decline in Q2 2025, falling 4.3%, with 19 of 40 constituents posting negative returns. The worst-performing constituent in the Energy sector was Baytex Energy Corp., whose share price fell 23.3% following a QoQ decline in daily oil and natural gas production.
Q2 2025 Sector Performance
Materials
7.9 %
Utilities
2.9%
Consumer Staples
6.0%
Energy
(4.3%)
Communication Services
5.2%
Financials
10.6%
Industrials
7.4%
Consumer Discretionary
12.5%
Information Technology
14%
Healthcare
(3.1%)
H.I.G. Capital Partners, LP (H.I.G.)
Mullen Group Ltd. (Mullen Group)
Robinhood Markets, Inc. (Robinhood)
has acquired
Closed June 30, 2025
EV $450.0M
EV/EBITDA Not Disclosed
EV/Revenue Not Disclosed
H.I.G. Capital Partners, LP (H.I.G.) is a leading global alternative investment firm with over $70 billion of capital under management. H.I.G. specializes in providing debt and equity capital to middle market companies through a flexible and operationally-focused investment approach. H.I.G. was founded in 1993 and is based in Miami, Florida. 4Refuel Canada LP (4Refuel) provides mobile refueling services, including mobile on-site refueling, bulk diesel fuel delivery, mobile diesel exhaust fluid refueling, and generator refuelling services. 4Refuel delivers approximately one billion litres of fuel annually to over 3,000 customers across transportation, construction, power generation, rail, marine, mining, and oil and gas industries. 4Refuel was founded in 1995 and is based in Oakville, Ontario.
The acquisition of 4Refuel enables H.I.G. to support the company’s continued growth through organic initiatives and strategic add-on acquisitions, while 4Refuel maintains its position as a market leader in mobile on-site refueling services.
has acquired
Closed May 30, 2025
EV $190.0M
EV/EBITDA Not Disclosed
EV/Revenue Not Disclosed
Mullen Group Ltd. (Mullen Group) is a diversified logistics company with a network of independently operated businesses that provide a broad range of services, including less-than-truckload, truckload, warehousing, transload, oversized, third-party logistics, and specialized hauling transportation. Mullen Group was founded in 1949 and is based in Okotoks, Alberta.
The Cole Group (Cole Group) is a full-service logistics provider specializing in navigating commercial shipments for customers across North America. The company’s services include customs brokerage, freight forwarding, trade consulting, warehousing, transportation, and distribution. Cole Group employs over 700 staff and operates from 43 strategically located offices in Canada and the U.S. Cole Group was founded in 1958 and is based in Calgary, Alberta.
The acquisition of Cole Group marks Mullen Group’s eighteenth transaction since 2020 and provides immediate cross-border expertise. With over 90 years of experience in North American trade, Cole Group brings deep institutional knowledge of tariffs, the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) regulations, and border compliance protocols.
is acquiring
Closed May 13, 2025
EV $219.0M
EV/EBITDA Not Disclosed
EV/Revenue 3.9x
Robinhood Markets, Inc. (Robinhood) is a financial technology company that operates a commission-free trading platform aimed at democratizing access to financial markets. Robinhood offers retail investors the ability to trade stocks, exchange-traded funds, options, futures, and cryptocurrency, while also providing financial products such as credit cards, cash cards, and spending accounts. Robinhood was founded in 2013 and is based in Menlo Park, California.
WonderFi Technologies Inc. (WonderFi) is a financial technology company focused on providing accessible, secure, and regulated digital asset services. WonderFi operates a diversified platform that includes cryptocurrency trading, blockchain-based financial services, and digital asset custody solutions. WonderFi was founded in 2021 and is based in Toronto, Ontario.
The strategic acquisition of WonderFi enhances Robinhood’s presence in the Canadian market, enabling the delivery of innovative, user-centric cryptocurrency products, while expanding access to crypto trading and maintaining a low-cost commission structure.
S&P/TSX Composite Index (^GSPTSE) - Index Value
7.3%
About MNP Corporate Finance
In Q2 2025, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) strengthened against the United States Dollar (USD), ending the quarter at 1.36 CAD/USD compared to 1.44 CAD/USD at the close of Q1 2025. This trend primarily reflects weakening investor sentiment toward the USD.
The Canadian economy is expected to remain flat in Q2 2025 on a QoQ basis, following a 2.2% annualized expansion in Q1 2025 that was largely driven by inventory stockpiling ahead of anticipated tariffs.
Housing starts rose to an estimated 280,000 units in Q2 2025, up 57,000 units from the previous quarter. However, housing starts are expected to slow in the near term, as high construction costs and broader economic uncertainty may suppress sales activity.
The Consumer Price Index eased from 2.3% in Q1 2025 to 1.8% in Q2 2025. The recent downswing in price growth is largely attributed to the removal of the federal consumer carbon tax on energy products in April 2025. However, this was offset by a rise in headline inflation in June 2025.
Canada’s unemployment rate climbed to 6.9% in Q2 2025, up from 6.6% in the previous quarter. Labour markets have weakened considerably on a YoY basis, with softness primarily concentrated in trade-related sectors as well as certain private-sector services.
CAD/USD Exchange Rate
CAD Per USD
Historical
Forecast
1.38
Note: RBC forecasts a Q3’25 CAD/USD exchange rate of 1.38.
2025F
2.75%
2024
3.3%
Year
Canada
Overnight Rate
(%)
Download the full report
Canadian Economic Update
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From Coast to Coast
Hands-on Approach
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Local & International Reach
Integrated Service Offering
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From Coast to Coast
MNP Corporate Finance (MNPCF) has a dedicated team of over 100 M&A, capital markets, and due diligence professionals across Canada. MNPCF works with clients in virtually all industries as they prepare, plan, and execute transactions. Our typical transactions range in value between $3 million and $300 million.
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Hands-on Approach
Current M&A transactions require a hands-on approach from start to finish including the active engagement of senior resources. Our senior resources are dedicated to our clients and are available as necessary and appropriate. We keep our clients regularly informed of the engagement status, issues we are encountering, successes, and overall progress.
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Local & International Reach
MNP is a participating firm within Praxity, a unique global alliance of independent accounting/advisory firms created to answer global business needs. As a member of Praxity, we are able to offer access to corporate finance, accounting, and tax advisory services worldwide.
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Integrated Service Offering
We draw on the vast experience and deep specialist knowledge network of our partners locally, nationally, and internationally as specialty issues arise, such as pre-transaction tax planning, transaction structuring, estate planning, valuation, due diligence, performance improvement, and risk management.
MNP Corporate Finance is a leader in providing transaction advisory services, including divestitures, financing, due diligence and acquisitions. With offices strategically located across Canada, we have the experience and expertise organizations need to take advantage of emerging opportunities in the national and global marketplace.
300+
Closed transactions (last 10 years)*
5B+
Total enterprise value (last 10 years)*
Helping clients prepare, plan & execute transactions
Food & Beverage
Retail & Distribution
Manufacturing
Agriculture
Transportation
Construction
Software
Financial Services
Materials
Healthcare
Pharmaceutical
Technology
Energy
Oilfield Services
Real Estate
Automotive
Industry Experience
Quarterly Industry Reports Q2 2025
Agriculture
Dealerships
Engineering & Construction
Food & Beverage
Healthcare Services
Manufacturing
Oilfield Services
Technology
* Data Sources are listed in the downloadable report
Divestitures
+
Acquisitions
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Financing
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Due Diligence
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Transaction Advisory Services
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Learn more about our services
View our transactions
*Does not include due diligence engagements
Select Q2 2025 M&A Transactions - Canada
Sector
Return
1.36
Q3'24
Q4'24
Q1'25
Q2'25
4.3%
3.3%
2.8%
2.75%
2025F
1.5%
Q3'24
Q4'24
Q1'25
Q2'25
2.4%
2.1%
2.2%
0.0%
2024
1.6%
Year
Canada
Real GDP Growth (QoQ % change)
2025F
6.9%
Q3'24
Q4'24
Q1'25
Q2'25
6.6%
6.7%
6.6%
6.9%
2024
6.4%
Year
Canada
Unemployment Rate (QoQ % change)
2025F
249
Q3'24
Q4'24
Q1'25
Q2'25
238
248
223
280
2024
245
Year
Canada
Housing Starts ('000s)
2025F
2.0%
Q3'24
Q4'24
Q1'25
Q2'25
2.0%
1.9%
2.3%
1.8%
2024
2.4%
Year
Canada
Consumer Price Index (YoY % change)
Canadian M&A transaction count declined to 307 this quarter, down from 382 in Q3 2024. The materials and industrials sectors led the way in Q4, with 77 and 55 transactions, respectively. The utilities sector saw the fewest transactions — with only one deal in Q4 2024, decreasing from the five recorded in Q3 2024.
The Bank of Canada cut interest rates in October and December 2024 in response to easing inflation and slower-than-expected economic growth. However, M&A activity notably declined this quarter as companies adopted a more cautious approach, influenced by expectations of further rate cuts and uncertainties regarding proposed U.S. tariffs.
Canada's Middle Market M&A Update – Q1 2025
View last quarterly report
Healthcare
(3.1%)
Information Technology
14%
Consumer Discretionary
12.5%
Industrials
7.4%
Financials
10.6%
Communication Services
5.2%
Energy
4.3%
Consumer Staples
6.0%
Utilities
2.9%
Materials
7.9 %
Q2 2025 Sector Performance
Sector
Return
Quarterly Industry Reports Q2 2025
Agriculture
Dealerships
Engineering & Construction
Food & Beverage
Healthcare Services
Manufacturing
Oilfield Services
Technology