First off the mark: How marketers can predict the next big thing in sports before anyone else
Amelia Kinsinger
“It’s part heart, it’s part science,” one brand exec said.
June 25, 2024
Much like the weather in the spring or the next big brand collab, sports are unpredictable.
Caitlin Clark, who was the hottest ticket in sports sponsorships ahead of this year’s March Madness, wasn’t always a brand darling. The NWSL, which saw commercial revenue skyrocket last season, had only a handful of sponsors a few years ago. And who would have thought that San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy, the 2022 NFL Draft’s Mr. Irrelevant, would go on to sign with brands like Toyota and Alaska Airlines (and lead his team to the Super Bowl), or that a sport like pickleball would have sponsors in seemingly every category?
For sports marketers, getting in early with the right athletes, teams, or leagues can pay dividends in the long run, but they can’t predict the future (not even using AI…yet).
“Everybody wants to be the first mover,” Harry Poole, VP of marketing solutions at Excel Sports Management, told us. “They want to attach themselves to something that’s not at its peak, and something that’s on the way up…where the investment still is relatively palatable and low.”
While there’s a certain level of science and data that brands and agencies can apply to their sports sponsorship strategies, several execs said landing a deal with an athlete before they go mainstream can be as much about gut feelings and personal experiences than anything else.
Crunch the numbers
Excel Sports Management, which reps current and retired athletes including Clark, Tiger Woods, Derek Jeter, and both Peyton and Eli Manning, often gets client requests to help predict the next big thing in the sports world, Poole said. In order to deliver, he said employees spend hours each day doing “desk research,” like reading about sports trends in trade publications.
In order to deliver, he said employees spend hours each day doing “desk research,” like reading about sports trends in trade publications.
The agency also has a “data-driven process” to pair brands with athletes based on custom scorecards that start by comparing a brand’s target audience to the audience of potential athlete partners, Poole said.
In October 2021—the early days of NIL deals—Excel worked with Outback Steakhouse to select a roster of college football players for the brand that included the second pick in the 2023 draft and offensive rookie of the year C.J. Stroud, 2023 fourth overall pick Anthony Richardson, and 2022 tenth overall pick and offensive rookie of the year Garrett Wilson, all before they went pro.
To do it, Poole’s team developed a scorecard based on Outback’s top 25 designated market areas, then compared them with the top college football programs in those areas to target players from Ohio State, the University of Michigan, and the University of Florida. After that, the team looked at on-field talent, off-field presence like media interviews, and any potential red flags. The process resulted in a small list of athletes that the team felt confident would perform on the field and off, Poole said.
On the pro-sports side, Ally Financial has made a name for itself as an early mover in the women’s sports space, having signed on as an NWSL sponsor a year before the league’s record-breaking championship viewership in 2022 and broader brand interest in women’s sports. That deal came together because Ally CMO Andrea Brimmer played collegiate soccer—and because the brand looks at audience alignment, shared values, budget, and potential activations before signing with any new league, Stephanie Marciano, head of sports and entertainment marketing at Ally, said.
“It’s part heart, it’s part science. The heart piece comes from the fact that so many of us are former athletes, and we know what’s hot. We know the levers that we have to pull.”
—Stephanie Marciano, head of sports and entertainment marketing at Ally
Ahead of its NWSL deal, the Ally marketing team found “tremendous audience alignment,” she said. Plus, the global potential for soccer that’s now being realized by more brands and proven performance of the US Women’s National Team helped solidify the decision to partner up.
“It’s part heart, it’s part science,” Marciano said. “The heart piece comes from the fact that so many of us are former athletes, and we know what’s hot. We know the levers that we have to pull.”
Vibe check
Personal experience with sports, either as an athlete or a fan, can be a big factor for many marketers making sponsorship decisions, execs told Marketing Brew. The Excel Sports Management team includes people who “eat, sleep, and breathe” sports, Poole said, which gives the agency the ability to glean insights and information from people who are heavily engaged with the space.
“For me, so much of it comes down to being consistently in touch with what’s happening in the world around us, and staying close, and also getting outside of your comfort zone and learning about new things,” he said. “If you just think about the main leagues as the only opportunities, then you’re going to miss out on the majority of the opportunities.”
“Set yourself up…to have 30 minutes a week of talking to people who are doing culturally relevant things in sports,” Nortman said. “Ask them their ‘why,’ and understand it. I think that’s where you get the instinct. I do think it’s anecdotal.”
—Kara Nortman, managing partner of the women’s sports investment fund Monarch Collective and co-founder of Angel City FC
Long-term industry relationships don’t hurt, either, he added. Because of Ally’s reputation as a supporter of women’s sports, newer organizations like the Professional Women’s Hockey League have proactively reached out to the brand with opportunities, Marciano said. Kara Nortman, managing partner of the women’s sports investment fund Monarch Collective and co-founder of Angel City FC, said she looks at team ticket sales and community engagement to help gauge success, but she also relies on sports enthusiasts to point her in the right direction.
“Set yourself up…to have 30 minutes a week of talking to people who are doing culturally relevant things in sports,” Nortman said. “Ask them their ‘why,’ and understand it. I think that’s where you get the instinct. I do think it’s anecdotal.”
Ally sometimes looks to the athletes it sponsors to help guide its future investments, Marciano said. BodyArmor, which is “always looking at who the next big thing is,” likes to get to know players beyond their resumes, CMO Tom Gargiulo said. Before the brand partnered with Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young, Gargiulo said he and his team met Young’s family, which helped them feel like the partnership was a good fit. State Farm did the same before it signed Caitlin Clark, the company’s chief agency, sales, and marketing officer told Marketing Brew in April.
Risk it
While there’s no way to remove all risk when partnering with an up-and-coming league, team, or athlete, Nortman suggested that the more risk-averse could start with smaller investments in more emerging sports, which tend to be more affordable and less cluttered anyway, Poole said.
That being said, investing in a sport beyond the league level can work out well for brands, according to Marciano. For instance, Ally partnered with the NWSL Players Association and several individual athletes in addition to its deal with the league. It might cost more, but marketers in the space should be willing to take on at least a little bit of risk, Marciano said.
“Be okay jumping in early, and be okay living with some of that risk,” she said. “One of the bigger things, too, is to invest long term. You can’t just do one-year deals. I think there’s a lot of brands that will sometimes just dip their toe in, and that might be safer…but the returns will come if you stick around and you invest.”