Merritt Morris - Writer | Tim Marrs - Illustartions | Nov. 4, 2022
Why You Won’t Own an Autonomous Car
The challenges of a self-driving future will put a huge emphasis on vehicle safety and stability, possibly meaning an end to today’s ownership model.
When it comes to vehicle replacement parts, there are two camps of people who will argue ad nauseum on the internet. One side believes original equipment manufacturer (OEM) parts direct from the automaker are the only way to go. The other thinks aftermarket parts are the more sensible option―one that doesn’t come with a premium tacked on to cover the cost of the satellite TV and Keurig coffee machine in the dealership service department lounge.
Both arguments have their merits, but the OEM part is the design intent and fully validated component, which spent months undergoing robustness testing and other validation before being released to production. That kind of rigor adds cost to a part. But no matter what side of the debate you’re on, it’s one that will potentially come to an end with the rise of fully autonomous vehicles. Because as vehicles begin to drive us, today’s traditional vehicle ownership model will almost assuredly become a thing of the past.
Freedom of Choice Will Come With Consequences
Traditionally, an individual’s choice about how they maintain their vehicle has only impacted themselves or those who directly interact with it. For example, they might find that although an aftermarket alternator won’t last as long as the original, the economics make sense because multiple aftermarket alternators could be purchased for the price of one OEM replacement. By the time the car needs another, it will be on to a second owner anyway.
But what happens when a vehicle is heavily automated or Level 5 fully autonomous? Will a vehicle owner get to make their own decisions about replacement options for safety-critical sensors? Specifications for cameras alone can vary wildly. Latency, field of view, vibration resistance and UV resistance are properties specific to an application and mounting location. Autonomous systems will rely on the fact that the components within the system have well-defined performance characteristics for the intended vehicle life span. Replacement with an off-the-shelf component won’t ensure optimum vehicle performance and could potentially lead to catastrophic consequences.
Validation testing for vehicle manufacturers and component suppliers takes many months and involves the passing of accelerated durability life tests with statistical significance, along with numerous individual tests to address environmental risks and system interactions. The higher the risk factor of any component failure or feature degradation, the more extensive the testing necessary from the individual component level up to the full vehicle before it is released into production.
Systems related to vehicle autonomy are carefully calibrated through life conditions as a sensor and vehicle feature package. If elements of a vehicle’s characteristics change, such as, say, a tire’s rolling radius or a brake pad’s friction surface, it can throw off the programmed parameters of those various control systems.
Safety Is Too Critical to
Leave to Others
“Right to Repair” adds another complicating factor, which should also prompt an increased shift away from the traditional vehicle ownership model as levels of automation increase. From laptops to tractors, the right to repair has pushed manufacturers to be more open with diagnostic tools, software updates, and independent mechanic servicing. Mainstream automakers have continually made arguments against providing open systems, stating that maintaining explicit control is safety-critical.
Safety-critical components and systems are those that ensure occupant safety as well as operational safety and regulatory compliance. Failures or abnormalities within a safety-critical system require a vehicle to have measures such as redundant backups, operator warnings, restrictions to limited performance ranges, etc. Any potential design flaw related to safety-critical systems can also lead to extremely costly recall campaigns, such as the Takata airbag fiasco, which impacted numerous manufacturers and tragically led to the loss of lives. Even OEM and related parts can and will fail, despite all of the testing that goes into them.
The risk of compromising a safety-critical function of an autonomous vehicle—and the potential consequences—should turn off many shade-tree mechanics. The burden will fall on the OEMs to be responsible for service training, deployment, and necessary preventative maintenance campaigns.
Subscribe to a Car, Someday
Already, a significant number of automakers offer a period of free maintenance included with every new vehicle purchase. Additionally, the popularity of leasing, which typically comes with included maintenance through the duration of the lease period, has also given rise in recent years to a new type of leasing known as vehicle subscription services, which have experienced varying degrees of success thus far.
Luxury automakers have been at the forefront of recent experiments with subscription offerings, which roll vehicle registration, insurance, and maintenance into one monthly fee. Subscription models also don’t normally lock consumers into one particular vehicle, though there are usually certain conditions attached. One of the most successful subscription programs to date has been Volvo’s Care By Volvo, which bills itself as “the flexible way to lease a car.” For instance, while Care By Volvo’s base 24-month subscription term allows you to change your subscription to another vehicle, you’re only able to do so after 12 months.
It’s the ability to switch vehicles, whether a customer desires to try something new or is provided with an immediate replacement vehicle if they experience a service issue, that could turn out to be a powerful incentive if handled correctly. Indeed, subscription models offer a potential glimpse into how automobile usage could be structured to meet an autonomous future, assuming that the significant logistical hurdles of fleet management and maintenance can be worked out.
To many, the loss of the freedom tied to vehicle ownership is a soulless, miserable future to contemplate, though it’s one that’s as many as 20–30 years away or more, depending on which prognosticator you believe. It’s the inevitable (*wink*) march toward the automobile becoming nothing more than a large appliance that turns off so many who still love to own and drive their cars.
There’s no question that automobile ownership helped shape America. It brought mobility to the masses. But the trouble is, as those masses age, their reflexes slow, their vision clouds, and their hearing fades. A fully autonomous future with the increasing rise of new mobility solutions has the ability to offer unprecedented freedom of movement and transfer of goods between places and individuals.
The trade-off is that the second most expensive purchase (a home being the first) that an individual has traditionally made in their life will go away, replaced by yet another subscription service instead. Depending on your point of view, that could either be a good or a bad thing, but one thing’s for sure, it won’t be a decision anyone will be facing anytime soon.
There’s a learning curve to owning and driving an electric car, and although it can’t be circumvented entirely, it can be flattened. Ask yourself the following questions before you buy your first EV, and you’ll have a better chance of ending up with a car that fits your driving habits and reduces the teething pains that frustrate many new EV drivers.
Eric Tingwall - Writer
Tim Marrs - illustrations | Sept 19, 2022
Looking to Buy an EV? 3 Questions You Need to Answer Before You Do
Think seriously about your answers to these questions, and you’ll be on your way to a smoother EV ownership experience.
It’s a classic Goldilocks problem: Buy an EV with too little range, and you’ll be frustrated by how often you need to plug in. Buy an EV with too much range, and you’ll be paying for more car than you really need, since the battery pack is the most expensive part of a battery-electric powertrain. How do you find the electric car, SUV, or truck with the just-right amount of range for you?
Start by thinking of your longest day of driving during a typical week. Now double that number. That’s your starting point. Have a 75-mile round-trip commute? A car with an official EPA range of at least 150 miles ensures you’ll have enough of a buffer to go about your day without worrying about how much range you have left.
There’s a reason we suggest buying more range than you think you’ll need. An electric car’s official range number is based on laboratory testing that mimics a combination of city and highway driving. Hitting that number in the real world, though, is often impractical, as an EV’s range drops with sustained highway speeds, aggressive acceleration and braking, elevation changes, or extreme temperatures.
You may want more range if you plan to regularly take long trips with your electric car. It’s possible to cross the country or travel between any two major cities today using the fast charging stations along interstates and major state highways, although for most drivers, there’s a practical limit to how far you’d want to drive in an EV based on how long it takes to charge. We find that a single charging stop in the middle of a long drive is refreshing, but multiple charging stops in one day can prove tedious.
How many miles is the longest trip you plan to take with your EV? Take that number and divide by 1.4 if you’re willing to make one charging stop. (400 miles divided by 1.4 suggests an EV with at least 285 miles of range will comfortably do the trip.) Willing to make two stops en route to your destination? You can divide your trip distance by 2 for a ballpark estimate of how much range you need. (400 miles divided by 2 suggests that a 200-mile EV will suffice.)
If that’s too much math, there’s another way to visually see how an EV will fit into your travels. Visit A Better Route Planner or download the mobile app, select the EV you’re considering, and enter the departure point and destination for a long-distance trip you intend to take with your EV. ABRP works much like Google Maps, but it details where you should stop to charge and for how long. If the proposed itinerary looks too onerous, repeat the process using a vehicle with more range.
How Much Range Do You Really Need?
Traditionally, an individual’s choice about how they maintain their vehicle has only impacted themselves or those who directly interact with it. For example, they might find that although an aftermarket alternator won’t last as long as the original, the economics make sense because multiple aftermarket alternators could be purchased for the price of one OEM replacement. By the time the car needs another, it will be on to a second owner anyway.
But what happens when a vehicle is heavily automated or Level 5 fully autonomous? Will a vehicle owner get to make their own decisions about replacement options for safety-critical sensors? Specifications for cameras alone can vary wildly. Latency, field of view, vibration resistance and UV resistance are properties specific to an application and mounting location. Autonomous systems will rely on the fact that the components within the system have well-defined performance characteristics for the intended vehicle life span. Replacement with an off-the-shelf component won’t ensure optimum vehicle performance and could potentially lead to catastrophic consequences.
Validation testing for vehicle manufacturers and component suppliers takes many months and involves the passing of accelerated durability life tests with statistical significance, along with numerous individual tests to address environmental risks and system interactions. The higher the risk factor of any component failure or feature degradation, the more extensive the testing necessary from the individual component level up to the full vehicle before it is released into production.
Systems related to vehicle autonomy are carefully calibrated through life conditions as a sensor and vehicle feature package. If elements of a vehicle’s characteristics change, such as, say, a tire’s rolling radius or a brake pad’s friction surface, it can throw off the programmed parameters of those various control systems.
Freedom of Choice Will Come With Consequences
“Right to Repair” adds another complicating factor, which should also prompt an increased shift away from the traditional vehicle ownership model as levels of automation increase. From laptops to tractors, the right to repair has pushed manufacturers to be more open with diagnostic tools, software updates, and independent mechanic servicing. Mainstream automakers have continually made arguments against providing open systems, stating that maintaining explicit control is safety-critical.
Safety-critical components and systems are those that ensure occupant safety as well as operational safety and regulatory compliance. Failures or abnormalities within a safety-critical system require a vehicle to have measures such as redundant backups, operator warnings, restrictions to limited performance ranges, etc. Any potential design flaw related to safety-critical systems can also lead to extremely costly recall campaigns, such as the Takata airbag fiasco, which impacted numerous manufacturers and tragically led to the loss of lives. Even OEM and related parts can and will fail, despite all of the testing that goes into them.
The risk of compromising a safety-critical function of an autonomous vehicle—and the potential consequences—should turn off many shade-tree mechanics. The burden will fall on the OEMs to be responsible for service training, deployment, and necessary preventative maintenance campaigns.
Safety Is Too Critical to
Leave to Others