Business Confidence Monitor
Every quarter we take the pulse of business confidence across the UK by speaking to 1,000 business leaders across a range of economic sectors, regions and company sizes. Discover how confidence across regions has changed since 2007 and the key moments that influenced those changes. Navigate through quarterly snapshots of various regions' performance.
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Every quarter we take the pulse of business confidence across the UK by speaking to 1,000 business leaders across a range of economic sectors, regions and company sizes. Discover how confidence across regions has changed since 2007 and the key moments that influenced those changes. Navigate through quarterly snapshots of various regions' performance and use your mouse to hover over the map to discover how that region has changed over the year.
-29 to -20
-19 to -10
-9 to 0
1 to 10
11 to 20
21 to 30
>30
<-30
Business Confidence Scale
UK Average
4.8
Q3
Navigate by year and quarter
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Details
Map
East England
7.4
East Midlands
7.1
London
1.5
Northern England
6.7
North West
12.8
Scotland
-1.7
South East
4.3
South West
2.7
Wales
-1.2
West Midlands
6.3
Yorks & Humber
Key Moments from 2007 Q3
Slowdown in the US housing market had a detrimental effect on the rest of the world.
Interest rates increased twice by Bank of England.
2007
Key moments from 2007 Q3
Change over time
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Select by year
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
-4.0
-5.1
2.9
-5.2
-12.5
-0.5
-9.5
-8.6
-11.2
11.7
Key Moments from 2007 Q4
Financial disturbance spread from the US to Europe and elsewhere, which caused financial shock to global credit markets.
Inter-bank rates were decoupled from official central base rates, which increased the cost of capital for the banks and other financial intermediaries.
Q4
Economic growth slowed down due to the credit crunch, the impact of a slowing housing market and high-base interest rate.
Key moments from 2007 Q4
-6.2
-6.3
-19.3
-17.4
1.0
-7.4
-5.7
2.1
0.6
-12.2
Key Moments from 2008 Q1
US housing slump and financial sector defaults persisted into 2008, which increased the odds of a US recession and ongoing financial market turmoil.
UK economy entered a housing and consumer deceleration viewed as likely to have a significant impact on economic growth.
Q1
Key moments from 2008 Q1
-18.5
-14.8
-8.8
-24.5
-17.0
-33.9
-25.0
-23.4
-15.3
-24.8
-8.1
-8.0
Key Moments from 2008 Q2
In April 2008, UK house prices recorded the first annual fall since 1996.
Bear Stearns collapse in the US was seen as one of the most severe manifestations of the credit crunch in April 2008.
Q2
Key moments from 2008 Q2
-25.6
-20.1
-25.4
-29.7
-17.7
-24.0
-30.0
-21.1
-29.6
-27.8
-38.2
Key Moments from 2008 Q3
Consumer price index inflation rose to 4.4% in July and 5.2% in September.
Sterling depreciated by 11.6% in July compared with a year earlier.
Key moments from 2008 Q3
-36.8
-46.4
-27.2
-38.0
-31.3
-32.9
-22.6
-58.1
-52.2
-32.8
-31.5
Key Moments from 2008 Q4
Unprecedented 1.5% cut in base rate by the Monetary Policy Committee in November 2008
Preliminary figures from government statisticians suggested that the UK economy shrank by 0.5% in the third quarter compared with the previous quarter; the largest quarterly contraction since late 1990.
Unprecedented 1.5% cut in base rate by the Monetary Policy Committee in November 2008.
Key moments from 2008 Q4
-45.5
-38.4
-56.6
-52.5
-42.0
-41.6
-38.5
-38.7
-42.6
-50.1
-57.0
-42.9
Key Moments from 2009 Q1
Unemployment rose by 213,000 over the final quarter of 2008 and was expected to rise further.
Base rate was at its lowest level since the Bank of England’s foundation in 1694.
In January, UK policymakers announced details of an Asset Purchase Facility that would allow the Bank of England to purchase assets with the hope of ending credit market atrophy.
Key moments from 2009 Q1
-28.2
-31.9
-24.1
-36.2
-38.8
-7.8
-26.2
-37.5
-19.7
-34.1
Key Moments from 2009 Q2
The Bank of England’s quantitative easing programme helped to lower the cost of borrowing for corporations, which slowed the rate of decline across the economy and reduced the threat of deflation.
Mortgage approvals rose, contributing to some pick-up in housing market activity.
Spreads on interbank lending rates fell, reflecting a reduction in financial sector stresses.
Key moments from 2009 Q2
7.6
3.5
-1.1
11.6
15.9
-0.6
13.1
16.9
-0.1
Key Moments from 2009 Q3
August’s Monetary Policy Committee expanded the Bank of England’s planned asset purchases from £125bn to £175bn.
The combined force of financial sector interventions, steep cuts in the Bank Rate by the Bank of England, fiscal policy and quantitative easing helped the economy to emerge from recession.
Key moments from 2009 Q3
24.1
31.2
22.3
25.6
28.6
21.9
35.2
24.0
22.0
17.7
14.4
Key Moments from 2009 Q4
The latest offcial data on industrial output showed production rose by 1.5% in September 2009.
Bank lending structurally below pre-recession levels. The latest Bank of England data showed that net lending to the private sector fell in five of the six months up to September 2009.
Key moments from 2009 Q4
33.3
14.0
28.2
27.2
24.3
27.5
19.3
28.7
26.7
27.9
Key Moments from 2010 Q1
Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply Purchasing Managers’ Indices showed the service sector recorded growth in each of the eight months to December 2009, while the manufacturing index was at a two-year high
In December 2009 claimant count unemployment fell by the largest number since April 2007.
Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply Purchasing Managers’ Indices showed the service sector recorded growth in each of the eight months to December 2009, while the manufacturing index was at a two-year high.
Key moments from 2010 Q1
25.2
27.6
25.3
28.1
28.0
30.6
29.8
27.7
25.7
Key Moments from 2010 Q2
Possibility of contagion spreading through the eurozone following the IMF bailout of Greece in May 2010.
Growth in average earnings reached the strongest level since December 2008 – up 2.2% over the three months to February 2010 compared to a year earlier.
Key moments from 2010 Q2
21.2
23.9
23.8
25.9
5.5
18.9
35.6
9.7
22.4
23.0
Key Moments from 2010 Q3
Public sector cuts outlined by the new government and consequent reduction in public sector demand was expected to have a significant downward effect on growth.
The ONS preliminary estimate of quarterly economic growth in Q2 2010 was 1.1%, considerably higher than expected. This was partly explained by the effects of restocking as well as a boost in construction activity.
Key moments from 2010 Q3
11.4
10.6
8.2
17.5
8.8
18.1
25.8
2.3
12.4
3.4
Key Moments from 2010 Q4
Preliminary estimates from the ONS that showed the economy grew at 0.8% quarter-on-quarter by Q3 2010, suggesting economic recovery was more resilient than initially feared.
There was ongoing uncertainty about the implications of the government’s spending cuts and the strength of the nascent recovery.
Preliminary estimates from the ONS showed that the economy grew at 0.8% quarter-on-quarter by Q3 2010, suggesting economic recovery was more resilient than initially feared.
Key moments from 2010 Q4
8.3
5.1
20.6
7.8
4.4
17.1
10.2
-4.1
-6.7
11.0
Key Moments from 2011 Q1
January VAT rises and short-term volatility in world commodity markets drove inflation.
Snow at the end of 2010 had a negative impact on output.
Key moments from 2011 Q1
13.8
12.9
12.2
15.2
11.2
13.3
8.4
5.4
4.6
26.6
24.9
Key Moments from 2011 Q2
Inflation fell back and clear downside risks remained for continued economic growth.
The UK economy returned to growth in Q1 2011, cancelling out the weather-induced decline in Q4 2010 and leaving the economy roughly where it was in Q2 2006.
Key moments from 2011 Q2
8.1
-3.5
8.9
6.4
17.6
16.5
Key Moments from 2011 Q3
The European sovereign debt crisis escalated and spread beyond Greece, Ireland and Portugal to Italy and Spain.
Alongside the US sovereign debt rating downgrade, equity markets suffered large declines in early August.
Key moments from 2011 Q3
-9.1
-7.2
-9.7
-10.3
-7.7
-10.5
-14.1
-13.5
-9.4
-9.2
-4.6
-3.4
Key Moments from 2011 Q4
Q3 experienced the steepest quarterly fall in the FTSE 100 in nine years, as concerns over the eurozone debt crisis mounted.
Global growth slowed in the second half of 2011, and growth in 2012 was expected to be lower than in 2011.
Key moments from 2011 Q4
-8.2
-13.2
4.1
-11.0
-18.4
-18.6
1.1
-0.9
Key Moments from 2012 Q1
Official data confirmed that the UK economy shrank in the final quarter of 2011 by 0.2%, and reignited fears of a double-dip recession.
Decline and stagnation in output was broadbased, with most sectors affected by the slowdown seen in the final quarter of 2011.
Key moments from 2012 Q1
12.5
7.0
28.4
12.0
16.6
5.7
19.2
Key Moments from 2012 Q2
The economy shrank in the first quarter of 2012, and took the UK into the first double-dip recession since the 1970s.
Factors such as April’s heavy rain and the Jubilee bank holiday also placed downward pressure on economic output.
UK gradually rebalanced its exports away from Europe and towards faster-growing economies, with non-EU exports accounting for 47% of total UK exports in 2011.
Key moments from 2012 Q2
2.6
3.6
8.7
-2.1
7.5
3.1
10.8
-5.5
-7.3
2.4
Key Moments from 2012 Q3
The economy shrank in the second quarter of 2012 for the third consecutive period, and took the UK deeper into recession.
Sector data from the ONS showed output shrunk across the economy.
Key moments from 2012 Q3
5.2
5.3
2.0
9.0
1.7
-0.2
10.3
Key Moments from 2012 Q4
The economy grew in the third quarter of 2012 for the first time since Q3 2011, taking the UK out of technical recession.
Figures were boosted by distorting factors including Olympic ticket sales, and underlying growth in the economy was much slower.
Key moments from 2012 Q4
15.7
11.1
12.3
20.0
20.1
6.5
Key Moments from 2013 Q1
High profile retail collapses including Jessops and HMV.
Snow in January expected to have beared down on economic output.
Largest oil field in the North Sea saw a longer than usual shutdown period for maintenance in the final three months of 2012.
Key moments from 2013 Q1
16.7
15.6
19.9
19.7
9.1
15.4
15.0
15.5
10.4
21.3
Key Moments from 2013 Q2
Ongoing economic crisis in the eurozone, with a further contraction expected for 2013.
The UK economy expanded in the first quarter of 2013, avoiding a fall into triple-dip recession. While the economy grew, this was not felt equally across all industries and there were continued risks to recovery.
Key moments from 2013 Q2
24.5
35.9
18.2
32.5
21.7
16.1
Key Moments from 2013 Q3
ONS data showed that economic growth in Q2 2013 was relatively broadbased, with all major industry sectors – Agriculture, Production, Services and Construction – expanding in the quarter.
Recession across much of the eurozone and economic slowdown in China expected to limit the potential for an export-led recovery in the short term.
Intended capital spending growth remained weak, meaning that investment would play a limited role in driving growth.
Key moments from 2013 Q3
31.9
37.7
30.5
32.6
24.6
28.5
38.8
31.7
23.7
41.1
Key Moments from 2013 Q4
Increasingly likely that the UK unemployment rate would fall to 7.0% – the threshold at which the Bank of England will consider raising interest rates – before 2016.
Consumer confidence indicator showed optimism increased for 10 consecutive months to October 2013, boosted by a strengthening housing market and perceived increases in job security.
Key moments from 2013 Q4
36.7
29.0
25.1
40.0
45.5
34.5
38.0
40.3
31.3
30.9
42.2
46.6
Key Moments from 2014 Q1
In January, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) increased its growth forecast for the UK economy in 2014 to 2.4%, up from a previous forecast of 1.9%.
Concerns about the sustainability of the economic recovery, particularly with respect to exports.
Key moments from 2014 Q1
37.3
37.5
40.9
39.9
35.8
35.3
34.6
29.2
39.2
36.6
Key Moments from 2014 Q2
In April, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) upwardly revised its forecast for UK output growth in 2014 to 2.9%, from a previous estimate of 2.4%.
UK economy expanded at its fastest rate year-on-year since the end of 2007, just before it started to tip sharply into recession.
ONS data pointed to a broadbased recovery emerging.
Key moments from 2014 Q2
31.8
27.0
41.8
35.1
28.3
27.8
15.1
41.7
24.2
42.1
31.5
Key Moments from 2014 Q3
Skills shortages an issue for many businesses and a lack of appropriately trained staff.
June retail sales data from the ONS showed a continued slowdown in spending growth.
Key moments from 2014 Q3
30.7
34.0
33.2
21.8
36.0
Key Moments from 2014 Q4
Export increases weakened markedly alongside a struggling eurozone economy.
Uncertainty surrounding the outcomes of the UK general election as well as the EU elections started to emerge.
Key moments from 2014 Q4
18.0
22.2
19.8
18.4
27.4
Key Moments from 2015 Q1
Fragility in the eurozone led the European Central Bank to announce an injection of more than €1 trillion of quantitative easing cash into the economy.
Inflation rate projected to reach near the zero mark, providing a significant boost to household spending power.
Tensions in Russia and Ukraine affected international trade.
Key moments from 2015 Q1
17.3
12.6
16.2
20.8
14.6
20.2
22.9
Key Moments from 2015 Q2
The UK general election caused uncertainty over the stance towards private sector enterprise that different potential governments could have taken.
Concerns over a British exit from the EU or a Greek exit from the eurozone started to create uncertainty.
Key moments from 2015 Q2
21.1
25.0
17.0
26.4
22.8
19.5
Key Moments from 2015 Q3
The end of the uncertainty caused by the UK general election and the rapid formation of a majority government meant businesses had a clearer idea of how the political landscape would look over the next five years.
With inflation around the zero mark, consumers saw significant gains to their real incomes and discretionary spending power.
Key moments from 2015 Q3
13.6
18.8
19.4
0.3
Key Moments from 2015 Q4
Relatively buoyant growth performance reported and economic growth rose by 0.5% in Q3 2015, which helped to boost employment levels and household spending power.
Global growth prospects appeared weaker than previously thought.
Inflation expected to rise to less-supportive levels in 2016.
Key moments from 2015 Q4
13.4
13.0
15.3
9.5
3.0
Key Moments from 2016 Q1
Continued concerns over China’s slowing economy.
Challenging political developments, including war in the Middle East and the consequent refugee crisis.
2015 ended with reports of a large deterioration in the UK’s trade balance, which widened from £4.7bn in Q3 2015 to £8.7bn in Q4 2015.
Key moments from 2016 Q1
-0.3
-5.3
3.3
-7.0
-4.5
Key Moments from 2016 Q2
The Chancellor’s March Budget created various concerns. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) revised down its growth forecasts and raised its borrowing projections.
Date of the Brexit referendum announced, bringing the issue to the forefront and increasing uncertainty for many businesses.
Key moments from 2016 Q2
-10.2
-13.1
-13.7
-13.0
3.9
-16.4
-11.4
-14.0
Key Moments from 2016 Q3
UK economy slowed with GDP growth moderating from 3.1% year-on-year in Q2 2014, to 2.2% in Q2 2016.
The balance of trade made no significant or lasting improvement, hindered during much of 2016 by an unfavourable exchange rate, the slowdown in China and sluggish European demand.
The UK public voted to leave the European Union on 23 June and, in the subsequent week, share prices fell and sterling weakened from €1.3 to €1.2.
Key moments from 2016 Q3
-16.6
-11.9
-2.0
Key Moments from 2016 Q4
The UK Government indicated that it would be relaxing its fiscal policy rules, to help to maintain growth in domestic demand.
Companies concerned about future trading arrangements within and beyond Europe and the availability of skilled and unskilled labour if migration flows are restricted due to Brexit.
Key moments from 2016 Q4
-17.9
-2.4
0.5
-14.4
-16.9
Key Moments from 2017 Q1
The Monetary Policy Committee indicated that it would not expect to raise interest rates in the near term.
2017 started from a higher level of GDP than many feared after the Brexit vote.
Key moments from 2017 Q1
6.8
2.8
4.9
5.6
4.5
Key Moments from 2017 Q2
News published showed that GDP growth remained steady during the second half of 2016, rather than turning negative after the EU referendum.
Unemployment rate continued to edge down to a record low (4.7% in the three months to February 2017).
Key moments from 2017 Q2
-10.1
-9.9
-6.4
-4.9
-7.5
-6.8
Key Moments from 2017 Q3
Inconclusive general election result, followed by a period of negotiations over the formation of a new government.
Official statistics for trade and industrial production showed weak growth in Q2 2017.
Key moments from 2017 Q3
-1.9
0.7
-6.5
5.8
9.8
-0.7
Key Moments from 2017 Q4
Concerns rose about the likelihood of a ‘hard’ Brexit due to the slow rate of progress in talks between the UK Government and EU negotiators.
The Governor of the Bank of England signalled that conditions were edging towards requiring an increase in interest rates.
Key moments from 2017 Q4
Consumer price inflation climbed to 3% in September, a five-and-a-half year high.
0.8
2.5
-12.0
-5.4
-2.5
8.0
-1.0
Key Moments from 2018 Q1
Reduced fears of a 'hard Brexit' as negotiators willing to open up discussions on a possible trade agreement.
Disagreements within the UK Government about what its objectives were due to the absence of a clear parliamentary majority.
Key moments from 2018 Q1
6.2
14.9
6.1
Key Moments from 2018 Q2
Progress was made with Brexit negotiations in March as details of the proposed transition period were announced.
Improved sales growth with domestic sales 3.9% higher than the previous year.
Bad weather in late February and March had a negative impact on activity, particularly in consumer-facing sectors and construction.
Key moments from 2018 Q2
0.4
-3.7
9.9
-3.3
Key Moments from 2018 Q3
Preliminary estimate of Q1 GDP showed an increase of just 0.1%, the weakest rise since 2012.
Inflation failed to decline as quickly as expected, limiting increases in real spending and reviving fears of an interest rate rise.
Several retailers announced that they were closing some or all of their stores.
Key moments from 2018 Q3
-7.9
-18.3
-8.4
-19.4
-16.7
Key Moments from 2018 Q4
Brexit anxieties increased due to a lack of progress in negotiations following the Prime Minister's meeting with other EU leaders in Salzburg.
Concerns continued over the threat of global trade wars, with relations between the US and its allies getting worse.
Key moments from 2018 Q4
-15.5
-27.0
-20.3
-10.9
-12.3
-13.9
-24.9
Key Moments from 2019 Q1
Reported problems in the retail sector with some high street chains ceasing to trade.
Several major eurozone economies experienced slowdowns in economic activity at the end of 2018.
Industrial production fell by 0.8% in the three months to November 2018.
Key moments from 2019 Q1
-22.2
-2.6
-21.3
-17.6
-15.6
-17.2
-22.1
-21.9
Key Moments from 2019 Q2
Absence of a resolution to Brexit uncertainties.
Global economic uncertainty, particularly related to China, international trade, and the European slowdown.
Weakness in the property market, which also impacted on construction activity.
Key moments from 2019 Q2
-8.5
-6.1
-20.9
-21.6
Key Moments from 2019 Q3
Evidence accumulated of a global slowdown, with not only Europe and Asia showing signs of slowdowns, but increasingly the US as well.
International political anxieties increased, particularly with regard to Iran.
Political uncertainty at home, partly as a result of main party setbacks in local and European elections, followed by the Prime Minister’s announcement that she planned to resign. Both factors increased the possibility of a ‘No Deal’ Brexit on 31 October.
Key moments from 2019 Q3
-20.6
-19.0
-23.7
-22.8
-22.4
-22.3
-29.1
-23.2
Key Moments from 2019 Q4
Political situation explained why the rate of decline had become steeper. For example, Parliament being prorogued on 10 September.
Slow sales growth, with exports looking particularly weak. Germany’s manufacturing problems had been significant.
Download the 2019 Q4 report
Key moments from 2019 Q4
1.3
-1.6
-2.7
5.0
-10.4
Key Moments from 2020 Q1
The General Election in December 2019 resulted in a majority government in parliament, putting an end to three years of political deadlock and Brexit uncertainty.
Politicians pledged to end austerity and increase investment in infrastructure and the regions.
Download the 2020 Q1 report
Key moments from 2020 Q1
