Our Framework
(Re)Globalization
Global Debt Sustainability
Artificial Intelligence
1
Emergence
Change builds gradually, often below the market’s line of sight.
Acceleration & Adoption
Capital, policy, and investor expectations begin moving together, supporting and accelerating adoption.
2
Maturity & Stabilization
The megatrend becomes part of the market structure, creating a new baseline for portfolios.
3
TIME
We Are Here
We are at an inflection point in how countries weigh national security, access to resources, and global collaboration
Inflection Point
COVID 19 pandemic, U.S.-China rivalry, Russia-Ukraine war, chip shortages
Efficiency and cost savings were prioritized in the old trade playbook: offshoring, just-in-time inventory management, and trade liberalization.
Countries and companies are prioritizing supply chain resilience, security, and access. Re-shoring, nearshoring, and more transactional trade partnerships define this shift.
Greater redundancy in global supply chains, particularly for critical minerals, energy, technology, and health, are likely to become a durable feature of global trade relationships.
Past debt crises prompted fiscal austerity, a secular period of lower interest rates, and greater central bank intervention.
Interest burdens rise, capital flows become more selective, and bond markets put greater pressure on fiscal choices and central bank policy.
Governments realign spending, taxes, and debt management around growth, inflation, or financial repression.
AI develops through research, models, and early infrastructure.
Capital flows into AI infrastructure, including chips, data centers, energy capacity; adoption spreads rapidly across government, corporate, and individual use cases.
Productivity gains, automation, and AI-enabled business models reshape costs, labor, and sector leadership.
