Outlook:
Negative
Watch
western US
SOUTHERN
EUROPE
southern canada
Overview
SOUTHERN
australia
CURRENT SITUATION
WORST YEAR
outlook
Exposure
Highest risk region in the world due to:
Fire Activity
Expenditure
California today has 4.5 million homes in the WUI that are highly vulnerable to fire
Increasing area burned and greater numbers of megafires:
Annual cost: Approaching $2 billion
Rate of increase: Over 5% annually over the last decade
2018
Economic losses: $24 billion
Fatality: Over 100 people
Exposure
Fire Activity
WUI expansion expected to continue:
Climate change expected to significantly increase fire activity, such that by 2039:
Overview
CURRENT SITUATION
WORST YEAR
outlook
Wildfires burn 2.5 mega hectares in an average year
Overview
CURRENT SITUATION
WORST YEAR
outlook
Overview
CURRENT SITUATION
WORST YEAR
outlook
Exposure
Fire Activity
Expenditure
Canada has a pronounced urban sprawl
Increasing area burned and greater numbers of mega fires:
Annual cost: Estimated between C$500 million and C$1 billion
2016
Economic losses: $10 billion
Fatality: 0
Exposure
Urban sprawl expansion expected to continue due to:
Climate change is expected to increase fire activity significantly, such that by end of the century :
Fire Activity
The Mediterranean region accounts for around 85% of burned area in Europe
Exposure
High population density and significant WUI exposures are found near the coastal and tourist areas.
Large megafires becoming more common in the Mediterranean countries
Expenses mostly on detection and suppression
Fire Activity
Expenditure
2017
Exposure
Relatively low population growth and urbanization expected across Southern Europe :
Climate change expected to increase wildfire activity in the Mediterranean
Fire Activity
5
1
2
3
4
6
7
9
8
Wildfire risk most severe in southern areas
Exposure
Victoria state accounts for around half of Australian bushfire-related economic losses and two-thirds of fatalities
Lengthening of fire season with significant increase in number of extreme fire weather days
Fire Activity
10
11
12
2007 (Black Saturday Fires)
Exposure
Urban sprawl expansion expected to continue due to
Number of severe fire days annually to triple by the end of the century
11
10
Fire Activity
13
Since 2000, 35% of burnt area in California are within the WUI
Climate change estimated to increase 2X the area burned since the 1980s
Lengthened fire season by almost 3 months since the 1970s
Large fires almost 7X more frequent than 30 years ago, areas burned increase by 12X
Rising housing costs
Growing population in western US states
Increasing levels of undeveloped, privately held land in the WUI
More than 2X area burned in California’s Sierra Nevada, Oregon and Washington,
More than 4X area burned in parts of Montana, Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona
Majority of fuel exposure concentrated in the south, accounting for 80% of fire management expenditures
6
Total wildland interface occupies more than 20% of the wildland fuel area
Lengthened fire season by two weeks since last century
Annual area burned 3X since the middle of the last century
Rate of increase: Approximately C$120 million a decade
Cause severe air pollution for nearby urban populations
Fires often occur in remote areas, threatening forestry and extractive industries
Small number of large fires responsible for nearly all the area burned
Continued shrubland encroachment presents more challenges than urban expansion.
Notable areas of urban expansion expected in Portugal, Spain, Italy, and France.
1.5°C warming could lead to a 40% increase in area burned by 2030
Models indicate 2X area burned by the end of the century
Economic losses average around €3 billion annually
Fatality over 700 people since 2000
But areas burned in the region have been decreasing since the 1980s, except Portugal
Annual cost (such as Greece, France, Italy, Portugal, and Spain): €2.5 billion
Severe fire weather results in problems of land abandonment, flammable tree species, and encroachment of shrubland
Annual burned area fluctuates between 0.3 and 0.7 mega hectares
Wildfire-related economic costs to double to A$378 million annually
Rapid population growth (e.g. New South Wales and Victoria)
Catastrophic fire may occur every few years instead of every few decades
Fire danger forecasted to increase significantly
Sydney’s peripheries present high exposure to bushfires and continue to sprawl outward
Melbourne’s WUI among the world's most vulnerable interfaces
Bushfire frequencies across Australia increased by 40% in the past 5 years
Especially in Victoria and New South Wales
Wildfire activity also pervasive across vegetated areas
Extreme fire weather and dry fuels
Overview
CURRENT SITUATION
WORST YEAR
outlook
Overview
CURRENT SITUATION
WORST YEAR
outlook
Overview
CURRENT SITUATION
WORST YEAR
outlook
Overview
CURRENT SITUATION
WORST YEAR
outlook
WUI expanded by 60% since 1970
High levels of accumulated fuel and
California is the epicenter of US fire risk where top 10 costliest wildfires in the US happened here.
High levels of exposure at the wildland urban interface (WUI)
Climate change.
Rising urban living costs
Population growth
Frequency of large fires increase by 2-3X
Area burned increase to by 2-4X
Region: Portugal, Spain, Italy (800,000 hectares)
Economic losses: €10 billion
Fatality: 115 people
Region: Victoria (450,000 hectares)
Economic losses: A$4.4 billion
Fatality: 173 people
Outlook:
Negative
Watch
SOUTHEASTERN US
NORTHEASTERN US
WESTERN SOUTH
AMERICA
EASTERN EUROPE
CENTRAL ASIA
china
Overview
Urban Sprawl
Climate Change
Forest restoration efforts
Overview
Urban Sprawl
Climate Change
Overview
Climate Change
Overview
Overview
Urban Sprawl
Overview
Urban Sprawl
Forest restoration efforts
Approximately 400,000 hectares burned each year in the southeastern US
In 2016, 14 people killed throughout Tennessee, Georgia, and North Carolina.
In 1998, fires in Florida burned 200,000 hectares, forced evacuations and caused $600 million of damages
Population and housing growth in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) extent is among the highest in the US
1
Climate change forecasted to increase fire risk.
Potential for very large fires may increase 5X by mid-century
2
Areas burned may be offset by deforestation and the creation of fuel breaks
Future fire risk shaped by complex patterns of land-use change and urban expansion
By mid-century, significant increases in area burned for Florida (16%) and Louisiana (30%), and reductions for Arkansas, Kentucky, and Tennessee
3
Future forest cover extent a key uncertainty
Lower projections of burned areas as urban sprawl assumed to reduce forest cover
Fire risk may increase if reforestation is promoted while limiting deforestation
High threats of fire at the New Jersey pinelands
500,000 hectares of highly flammable vegetation
Houses half a million people
Fires break out regularly in the region, but mostly contained
4
In 1963, fires broke out between Long Beach and Atlantic City, killing seven people and destroying 400 buildings
Since the 1960s, population has more than 3X
Climate change forecasted to increase fire risk in New Jersey
Potential for very large fires increase by 4X by mid-century
2
Chile's recent events raise serious concerns about the wildfire outlook
The most severe 2017 wildfire recorded after prolonged drought
Highlighted the vulnerability of the extensive eucalyptus and pine forests
Climate change forecasted to increase fire risk
Expecting higher temperatures and reduced rainfall expected
Resulting in hotter, dryer conditions more conducive to fire
Marked increase in fire probability along western coast within next two decades
Models predict Eastern Europe may emerge as a new center of wildfire activity, with significant increases in burned area
5
Models predict climate change to result in more pronounced fire activity in the central Asian steppes
6
Low population exposure in the region today
7
Future urban expansion expected in regions of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan
China’s most severe wildfires occur in the mountainous northeast and southwest regions.
In 2019, a wildfire in a remote area of Sichuan province killed 31 firefighters
In 1987, the Black Dragon Forest Fire burned over 7 mega hectares of forest into Russia
Wildfire risk outlook depends on urban sprawl extent
Urban expansion throughout the country expected among the top in the world especially along the eastern coastline
Models predict increase in burned areas in the south due to the effect of urbanization on patterns of fire activities
7
6
Currently witnessing the most aggressive afforestation program worldwide
Between 1990 and 2015, more than 35 billion trees were planted to combat desertification
Now covers almost 80 mega hectares of planted forest
Mainly monoculture plantations raising concerns about the resilience of new forests to wildfire under climate change
Overview
Urban Sprawl
Climate Change
Forest restoration efforts
Overview
Urban Sprawl
Climate Change
Overview
Climate Change
Overview
Overview
Urban Sprawl
Overview
Urban Sprawl
Forest restoration efforts