Source: Oliver Wyman analysis
Note: HNW wealth is measured across households with financial assets greater or equal to US$ 1 million. Financial assets include investable assets (deposits, equities, bonds, mutual funds and alternatives), excluding assets held in insurance policies, pensions and direct real estate or any other real assets. Numbers for all years were converted to US$ at the year-end 2017 exchange rates to exclude the effect of currency fluctuations.
2022E
...
2017
2016
+5%
+7%
5%
7%
2%
7%
4%
8%
5%
8%
8%
4%
8%
1%
8%
4%
17-22E'
CAGR
16-17'
GR
1
1
2
4
3
3
4
3
3
4
5
4
10
10
12
14
15
22
36
29
85
66
61
27
North America
APAC
Middle East & Africa
Western Europe
Japan
Latin America
Eastern Europe
Global private high net worth (HNW) wealth by major region
2016-2020E, US$ TN
-2
-3
92
...
2020E
2017
2016
2015
Europe-based
Wealth Managers
North America-based
Wealth Managers
Percent
100
99
98
98
97
97
96
95
94
93
93
92
91
91
90
89
89
88
87
86
2014
Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Oliver Wyman analysis
2014-2020E, %, indexed to 100, sample of leading Wealth Managers
Fee margin of Europe-based vs. North America-based Wealth Managers
Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Oliver Wyman analysis
154
126
109
116
108
82
52
84
95
Percent
Wealth Management valuation
Total market cap (excl. Wealth Management valuation)
250
200
150
100
50
225
205
53
192
184
180
135
143
153
103
74
0
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
71
2009
2008
2007
2007-2017, %, indexed to 100, sample of leading Wealth Managers, sum of parts analysis
Equity market value development of overall bank vs. Wealth Management unit
Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Oliver Wyman analysis
Projected revenue drop applying a 2008 scenario on 2017 revenue composition
F&C income development
NII
development
Trading income development
Observed revenue drop in 2008 market downturn for a sample of leading Wealth Managers
12
1
0
3
15
% of revenues, sample of leading Wealth Managers
Expected revenue decrease of Wealth Managers in a market downturn and change in the share of individual components in the total decrease
Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Oliver Wyman analysis
-53 bps
-20 bps
Gross margin
Pre-tax margin
14
34
69
122
"Broad waterfront" peers
Pioneers
2017, bps, sample of leading Wealth Managers
Average gross margin and pre-tax profit - Pioneers vs.
”Broad waterfront” peers