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After the U.S. 10-year yield averaged 6.0% over the prior 10 years, PGIM Fixed Income calls for a long-term 10-year yield average of 3.5% in “Economic Recovery Creates Opportunities in Bonds.”
Mid-December 2003 to
Mid-September 2013
Avg. 10-Year Yield:
3.51%
DECEMBER 2003
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In “The Low Ranger”, PGIM Fixed Income updates its 10-year yield projection to 3.0%, adding that “the 10-year yield may remain lower than 3.0% over a medium-term horizon.”
Mid-September 2013 to Mid-December 2015
Avg. 10-Year Yield:
2.38%
SEPTEMBER 2013
In “The Totally Mad World of Low Rates,” PGIM Fixed Income lowers its long-run forecast for the 10-year Treasury yield to 2.5%, while indicating that the central tendency may be “around 2.25% or less over the next several months, if not quarters or years,” and the yield subsequently drops to 1.35% by July 2018.
Mid-December 2015 to Mid-May 2019
Avg. 10-Year Yield:
2.46%
DECEMBER 2015
With a new U.S. administration in place, PGIM Fixed Income publishes “The Bond Bull’s Twain Moment.” It calls for a 10-year yield of 2.5% “for the time being,” while acknowledging that a policy surprise could push rates over 3.0%. It provides a long-term 10-year yield forecast below 2.5%. The 10-year yield drifts sideways at 2.5% before reaching 3.25% in November 2018.
Mid-April 2017 to
Mid-August 2019
Avg. 10-Year Yield:
2.57%
APRIL 2017
With the U.S. 10-year yield exceeding 3% and market forecasts calling for a 3.14% yield in 2019, PGIM Fixed Income publishes “Lower Range to Drive Stealth Bull Market in Bonds,” which set a 2.5% central tendency for the 10-year yield.
Mid-October 2018 to Mid-August 2019
Avg. 10-Year Yield:
2.52%
OCTOBER 2018
As the equilibrium level of rates continues to decline, PGIM Fixed Income publishes “Countdown to Zero,” which calls for a long-term 10-year central tendency of 2.00%-2.25% and real rates of close to zero.
Avg. 10-Year
NOMINAL Yield:
2.06%
MAY 2019
Mid-May 2019 to
Mid-August 2019
0.31%
Avg. 10-Year
REAL Yield (TIP):
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Note: 10-year constant maturity rate data is sourced from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate [DGS10], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, as of August 31, 2020.
December 2003
September 2013
December 2015
April 2017
October 2018
May 2019
DEC
2003
SEPT
2013
DEC
2015
APR
2017
OCT
2018
MAY
2019
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