Venture capital
Private debt
Infrastructure
Natural resources
Real estate
Private equity
Private equity
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Venture capital
Real estate
Hedge funds
Infrastructure
Natural resources
Private equity has delivered strong returns to investors over the long-term, outperforming public indices such as the S&P 500 TR Index and MSCI World TR Index by a considerable margin. But performance was expected to dip, trailing the downturns in public markets. The first signs of this were in PE buyouts, where there was a -1.8% correction, driven mainly by declines in the performance of deals in information technology and healthcare. However, with IT buyouts down by 5.8% compared with -28.8% for comparable ETFs, the correction was yet to be fully realized in private markets.
Hedge funds
Private debt
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Venture capital fund managers found it harder to raise capital in 2022. A total of $162bn was raised by Q3 2022, against a targeted total of $400bn. Even allowing for an increase in closings in the fourth quarter, the 2.47x multiple for capital targeted versus raised was the highest for a decade. Investors favored established managers, with 73% of the total capital raised by managers with four or more generations of funds. The proportion of capital raised by the 10 largest funds increased from 16% in 2021 to 26% in 2022 YTD.
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There were strong headwinds to the global real estate outlook in 2022. Rising interest rates and valuation concerns were likely to hit both fundraising and deal activity. Against this backdrop, investors were selective in their commitments to the asset class. Value added strategies were taking an increasing share of a smaller pool of capital, accounting for 35% of aggregate fundraising, far above the long-term average of 27%. The $102bn raised in the first three quarters of 2022 was equal to 46% of the full year total in 2021 and, with a pessimistic outlook, an end of year jump looked unlikely.
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Hedge funds played a defensive role in the market once again and guarded investors in 2022, though Preqin’s all-hedge-funds benchmark declined 9.3% to September (-12.2% annualized). Although losing money should never be celebrated, hedge funds did offer some protection. Across the asset class, outflows and negative performance led to a 4.1% decline in AUM to $4.1tn in the first nine months of 2022. Strategies that delivered positive performance, including CTAs and macro, experienced inflows in every quarter, while North America-based managers benefited from historic outperformance over other regions and experienced a net inflow of +$534bn.
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2022 was a record year for unlisted infrastructure fundraising, with the $139bn raised globally in the first three quarters already $10bn more than full year 2021. The standout story was the boom in the US, with North America-focused funds pulling in 68% of the total capital raised in 2022, far above the 42% average between 2011 and 2021. President Biden’s Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (2021) and the Inflation Reduction Act (2022) had aimed to deliver a once in a generation investment program with upwards of $1.6tn committed over 10 years.
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Investors continued to allocate to private debt in 2022. The $172bn raised in the first three quarters of 2022 was 80% of 2021’s record amount, while Preqin was tracking 837 private debt funds in the market that sought to raise a further $297bn. Private debt was firmly established in many investors’ portfolios, offering a degree of inflation and interest rate protection and a compelling balance of risk and return. We expected private debt to be one of the fastest growing alternative asset classes over the next five years, with AUM predicted to grow to $2.3tn by December 2027, a CAGR of 10.8%.
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Natural resources were at the top of the performance table across alternatives, riding on the back of the strong commodities rally. The asset class posted a one-year rolling IRR of 34.6% through March 2022, ahead of Real Estate at 33.0%, and private equity at 29.3%. Despite the exceptional performance, pure natural resources funds raised just $3.8bn in the year to September, well down on the $13bn raised in 2021, as investors focused on funds in infrastructure, private equity, and venture capital with exposure to renewables and cleantech.
Value added share of real estate fundraising (aggregate capital raised)
Quarterly hedge fund asset flows ($bn)
Proportion of aggregate capital raised by the largest venture capital funds closed
Private capital: rolling one-year horizon IRRs by asset class
Private debt assets under management ($bn), 2010-2027F
North America-focused share of global infrastructure fundraising
(aggregate capital raised)
PrEQIn Index: private equity strategies vs. public markets
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Proportion of aggregate capital raised by the largest venture capital funds closed
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Index return (Rebased
to 100 as of Dec 31, 2007)