Commodities are facing an unclear near-term future as investors weigh up geopolitical risks versus greater U.S. oil supply. With real bond yields likely having peaked, REITs are facing a much brighter outlook.
Alternatives provide important diversification against traditional equities and fixed income.
Rate cuts failing to materialize may drive extended U.S. Treasury disappointment in 1Q. Higher-quality credit should perform better than lower-quality credit as the economy slows, and as the maturity wall becomes more pressing.
Fixed income credit spreads are very tight going into an economic slowdown.
Falling bond yields have driven a sharp market rally, but this can only be sustained if earnings deliver. An economic slowdown in H1, coupled with slightly later than expected rate cuts, suggest some volatility.
Equities will likely see volatility in H1 followed by a rally in H2 as policy easing arrives.
Economic growth is now cooling as global monetary tightening gradually takes its toll. U.S. recession risk has diminished, although consumer headwinds are rising. China and Europe are likely to see another year of tepid growth.
Global growth is coming off the boil.
Click the arrows to scroll through the key themes.
Key themes
1Q 2024
Global Asset Allocation Viewpoints
The last mile.
Get our perspective
Read our perspectives regarding recent developments impacting global markets.
Further concerns, or crisis
01
02
03
04
Global Asset Allocation Viewpoints
The last mile.
01
02
03
04