Tense Transition
Trust-Based Transformation
Turbulent Times
Trust-Based Transformation
In this scenario, the integration and responsible use of advanced technologies enables widespread productivity growth and job creation while supporting sustainable solutions and innovation. Frameworks for trust (including global standards and cooperation) are part of this picture. The economic benefits of AI would exceed the stranded asset costs associated with decarbonisation, leading to economic growth rates higher than baseline expectations, even after adjusting for climate-related economic damages.
Headlines from this tomorrow
‘WTO announces agreement on cross-border data flows’
‘Drones break ground on moon’s first lithium mine’
‘Mass reforestation lifts South America’s GDP growth to 6%’
Overview
Data breakdown
Data breakdown
Overview
Tense Transition
Trust-Based Transformation
Turbulent Times
Tense Transition
It’s easy to imagine a world where national and regional interests take centre stage; where sustainability efforts aren’t maximised; and where technology is more fragmented, less trusted and less able to deliver on the productivity potential of AI. Growth would be status quo at best, with AI gains and climate costs largely cancelling each other out, and the energy transition proceeding slowly, setting the stage for larger physical climate risks in the future.
Headlines from this tomorrow
‘Privacy mandates curtail social media use—texting coming back in vogue’
‘“At least our air is clean”: World Cup fans taunt rivals over pollution’
‘AI-controlled canal system keeps Venice from going under’
Overview
Data breakdown
Data breakdown
Overview
Tense Transition
Trust-Based Transformation
Turbulent Times
Turbulent Times
Conflicts, instability and ever-greater uncertainty may converge to erode trust in technology and its economic benefits; AI takes away more work than it creates; and sustainability measures are neglected at the cost of the future. Growth in this scenario could dip below the baseline projections.
Headlines from this tomorrow
‘Pollinators wanted: Bee collapse triggers farm hiring wave’
‘PE firm raises $75 billion fund for education deals’
‘Country’s last bowling alley closes amid VR entertainment boom’
Overview
Data breakdown
Data breakdown
Overview
