Our latest quarterly video provides a review of financial market performance in 2025 and outlines expectations for 2026.
Learn more about our speaker and access a transcript below.
This webinar is for information only and should not be taken as a recommendation or advice on how any specific market is likely to perform. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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Ronelle Hutchinson: Looking back on 2025, it was a strong year for risk assets across the board.
Commodities, specifically gold, had a stand out year as investors rushed to safe have assets amidst the tariff uncertainty and geopolitical risks.
Equities in the rest of the world, that is Europe, emerging markets and the UK outperfomed up over 20% in pounds exceeding the returns from the S&P 500 up 9% which was weighed down by dollar weakness. The dollar depreciated 7% vs the pound and UK gilts ended up close to 6% with falling inflation and lower interest rates offsetting the fiscal risks that plagued bonds over the year.
Overall a positive year for equities supporting high nominal returns for clients invested in multi-asset portfolios.
For avid market followers, one of the most surprising outcomes of 2025 has been the extent to which global economy has weathered the US tariff shock. Global GDP data in the chart on the left shows an outlook of slower but resilient growth. In the chart on the right, we show the new manufacturing orders from the global purchasing manager indices which has rebounded sharply after the dip in the first quarter.
For the full year, 2plan models have delivered strong returns with high nominal returns ranging from 7% - 14% that investors will no doubt appreciate.
Video transcription
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Relative to our peers however, our lower risk models that is defensive to moderately cautious has marginally lagged the peers, while our higher risk models, balanced and adventurous have outperformed.
Going into 2026, we are mindful of elevated valuations as well as earnings expectations in the US, outside of the US, the UK & Europe reflect better value however, following the strong returns in 2025, the market will be anticipating a recovery in economic growth to support this outlook for improved earnings.
On the other hand the US market is unusually concentrated by past standards, with the largest 10% of stocks by market capitalisation now making up over 75% of the total US market. Positive performance over recent years has been reliant on the results of a small number of constituents driving the majority of returns.
The chart on the right-hand-side illustrates this. Less than 30% of the stocks in the S&P 500 have beaten the index in 2023 and 2024. 2025 has seen a very slight broadening out but this is still very much a narrow market by historical standards.
From an asset allocation perspective, we retain our neutral equity position following the strong returns in 2025. We maintain our overweight the exposure to fixed income and alternatives, this is largely because of the risks emanating from exuberant sentiment what we’re seeing reflected in low credit spreads and the overweight retail investor positioning, not to mention the heightened geopolitical risks that continue.
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Learn more about our speaker
Ronelle Hutchinson
Senior Investment Director
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Investment Director
Andrea Yung
Senior Investment Director
Ronelle Hutchinson
I am a Senior Investment Director at Rathbones.
I have over 20 years of industry experience. Most recently as a portfolio manager in Investec Wealth & Investment's South African office managing a range of multi-manager funds for our private clients. I am responsible for overseeing Rathbones' Managed Portfolio Service on platforms. My focus is to ensure that we deliver consistent investment performance & a proactive service to our advisory clients.
I am responsible for the portfolio management of Rathbones' MPS on Platforms service. Using a structured and disciplined investment framework, our primary focus is delivering outcomes that align with the objectives and risks associated with each MPS strategy.
Investment Director
Andrea Yung
2plan Wealth Management is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. It is entered on the Financial Services Register (www.fca.org.uk) under reference 461598. Registered address: 3rd Floor, Bridgewater Place, Water Lane, Leeds, LS11 5BZ. Registered in England and Wales Number: 05998270
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pdf • 2.46MB
Download the slides from the video
pdf • 2.46MB
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