4Q19 MMI

MIDDLE MARKET INDICATOR AT A GLANCE

EMployment growth

revenue growth

REVENUE GROWTH

SHORT TERM INDEX

economic confidence

CAPITAL INVESTMENT

SUMMARY VIDEO

SUMMARY video

SUMMAry video

Growth rates recover

After a sharp decline last quarter, the rate of year-over-year revenue growth climbed back to 7.5%. Looking ahead, companies continue to have muted expectations for future revenue growth.

Employment numbers inch back

Employment numbers recovered to finish the year, but numbers remain off the higher rates seen over the past two-and-a-half years. The expected rate of employment growth over the next 12 months is up from last quarter, but still below previous year projections.

5.0%

48%

3.5%

Growth over the past 12 months

Next 12 months projection

of middle market companies reported employment growth over the past 12 months

Compared to 55% in 4Q'18

73%

4.9%

7.5%

Next 12 months projection

Growth over the past 12 months

of middle market companies report increased revenue over the past 12 months

Compared to 79% in 4Q'18

Confidence rebounds

More than four out of five middle market leaders say they are confident in the state of economic affairs in the United States and in their own local economies. And global economic confidence increased most from last quarter.

The middle market's cautious approach to cash management reversed this quarter as the proportion of leaders willing to put an extra dollar to work in their businesses rebounded to 70%.

Investment appetites resurge

The Short Term Index bounced back notably this quarter from 49 to 70. Coupled with rebounding confidence and more willingness to invest, this signals that leaders are more optimistic about the future than they have been in the past six months.

Three-month outlook improves

Will Invest

Compared to 56% in 3Q'19

70%

1Q'19

2Q'19

3Q'19

4Q'19

89%

Local Economy

3Q'19 | 81%

83%

National Economy

3Q'19 | 76%

68%

Global Economy

3Q'19 | 55%

Performance Improves, But Caution Bell Still Tolls