2024 Commercial Real Estate Report

Strong population growth and housing supply issues have prompted a significant shift in the Canadian commercial real estate market as builders and developers adopt an “all-hands-on deck” approach to solving Canada’s housing shortage.

real estate report

2024

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Shifting demand in commercial market being driven by housing crisis, population growth and need for greater density.

40 MILLION RESIDENTS (and growing)

real estate report

2024

According to Statistics Canada’s Quarterly demographic estimates, provinces, and territories; Interactive dashboard, Canada's population reached 40,769,890 as of January 1, 2024, with net international migrations in 2023 topping 1.2 million (1,240,769).

“The overwhelming need for shelter, combined with the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s (CMHC) Apartment Loan Program that has incentivized builders and developers with low interest rates, favourable terms, and 50-year amortization periods, have created the perfect storm in today’s high interest rate environment,” says RE/MAX Canada President Christopher Alexander. “Unfortunately, with Canada’s population surpassing 40 million people this year, even the current upswing in residential construction continues to fall short of the thousands of units required in most major markets.”

Incentivized builders and developers respond to the call for multi-family purpose-built rentals RE/MAX Canada examined 12 markets across the country and found the push for intensification in the first quarter of 2024 has gained greater momentum as builders and developers from coast to coast turn their attention to purpose-built rental construction—some at the expense of new residential condominiums, and to a lesser extent, commercial builds. All 12 markets surveyed identified multi-family and industrial real estate as the top-performing asset classes in their market, followed by retail, with eight out of 12 markets (66.7 per cent) reporting strength. Farmland in Saskatchewan also topped the list of high-performing asset classes, with one of the strongest years on record, while demand for hotels and strip plazas also proved popular.

“Density, population growth and the housing crisis remain significant factors influencing market activity, but a variety of drivers will have an ongoing impact on the Canadian commercial real estate market moving forward,” says Alexander. “This includes economic performance; interest rates; incentives and development policies, processes and fees; tax policies; construction costs, land costs and servicing; labour shortages; housing affordability and availability; revitalization efforts and hybrid/remote work policies; social issues and more. Diverse market dynamics exist, but overall improvement is expected to characterize conditions and demand as 2024 progresses.”

“Cautious optimism is growing with the likely end to quantitative tightening expected in the latter half of the year. Confidence levels are expected to rise, sparking renewed activity in the market. Supply issues are expected to persist for the most sought-after segments as purchasers view to strengthen their investment portfolios with an evolving mix of assets."

“In the longer term, the underpinning of the Canadian commercial real estate market appears positive," Alexander adds. "Residential housing needs and a swelling population are anticipated to be the root and catalysts of growth in most commercial segments. Inevitably, as communities expand, so too does the need for all types of services, prompting greater business development and increasing requirements of operations and infrastructure. Simply put, growth begets growth, and the ripple effect is already evident.”

Christopher Alexander, President, RE/MAX Canada

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Commercial real estate markets in Western Canada are expected to remain strong, with Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba bolstered by a positive economic outlook in 2024. The energy and mining sectors have also contributed to strong activity in Newfoundland and Labrador, while interprovincial migration, immigration, and travel and tourism have buoyed economic prospects in the Halifax Regional Municipality. While cost-prohibitive major urban centres such as Toronto and Vancouver have experienced some moderation in demand, more affordable markets in surrounding areas have picked up the slack, particularly in the industrial segment. Case in point would be strong industrial activity outside of the Greater Toronto Area, including Halton to Niagara Regions and London, while Calgary and Edmonton continue to draw activity from the Greater Vancouver Area.

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real estate report

2024

13 trends characterizing the commercial real estate market in 2024

Multi-family construction continues unabated across Canada.

High-density and mixed-use development is on the rise.

Capital gains tax—the government giveth and taketh away.

Industrial real estate continues to experience strong demand.

Bricks and mortar retail stores still hold their appeal.

Luxury retail brands continue to expand their presence.

The hospitality industry has roared back to life.

Record commodity prices contribute to expansion in Saskatchewan.

Established businesses experienced strong activity in Saskatoon.

#10

Real Estate Investment Trusts are re-examining existing portfolios.

Adaptive reuse is gaining momentum nationwide.

#12

The office sector in the downtown core continues to struggle.

#11

Vendor take-back financing is key to some land development deals.

#13

Multi-family construction continues unabated across Canada. Purpose-built rentals are the primary focus in every major urban centre analyzed, with student housing and seniors’ residences following in lockstep, thanks to the CMHC and the federal government’s decision to cancel the GST on new residential builds. Seven markets including Vancouver, Calgary, Regina, Winnipeg, London, Ottawa and Halifax had vacancy rates at or below 1.8 per cent in 2023, according to CMHC’s Rental Market Report released in January 2024.

High-density amd mixed-use development is on the rise. With land being a finite product and continued population growth in major urban centres, many mall/strip plaza landlords have come to realize that the best use of their properties means increasing density. As a result, a greater number of malls and shopping centres are exploring a residential component, with a clear trend toward future mixed-use developments.

Capital gains tax — the government giveth and taketh away. Smaller investors are particularly hard hit by the increase in the capital gains tax inclusion rate, from 50 per cent to just over 66 per cent, as outlined in the 2024 Budget announcement. While a handful of investors were scrambling to get their properties sold prior to the June 25 deadline, most pulled back on listing their properties for sale.

Industrial real estate continues to experience strong demand. Tight inventory is impacting several markets across the country (including Hamilton and the region spanning Halton to Niagara, Newfoundland-Labrador, Halifax Regional Municipality.) Despite an uptick in availability in many areas due to an influx of new space, demand remains steady. End users are most active in the market, with warehousing, manufacturing and flex space most sought after. Affordability is a growing factor, especially in larger urban centres, prompting some businesses to consider industrial property on city outskirts. In Vancouver, where large tracts of unused industrial land are almost non-existent, some business owners are looking east to Alberta (rail access) and south to the US seaboard (access to ports).

Bricks and mortar retail stores still hold their appeal. This, despite the huge e-commerce presence in markets across the country. Neighbourhood retail is performing well, with busy retail avenues experiencing a shift from more traditional retailers selling goods such as clothing or jewellery to service-related retail, especially within the health and wellness industries and storefront medical offices. Many malls continue to expand and redevelop in an effort to perfect the tenant mix. Several markets are experiencing increased demand for daycare facilities, given significant population growth.

Luxury retail brands continue to expand their presence. Yorkville, the Bloor Street ‘Mink Mile,’ and Yorkdale Shopping Centre in Toronto, as well as Vancouver’s Alberni Corridor and Oakridge Park continue to attract global luxury retailers.

Record commodity prices have contributed to an expansion in Saskatchewan. Many farmers are sitting on pent-up-cash reserves. Farmland throughout Saskatchewan is being gobbled up by large farming corporations, sending values skyrocketing to new heights. The province led the country in terms of percentage increase in the price per acre of farmland in 2023, according to the FCC Farmland Values Report released in March 2024, with a 15.7-per-cent gain year over year. Percentage increases were even higher in Saskatchewan’s East Central region, where values rose by 20.8 per cent. Supply of farmland remains exceptionally tight in areas outside Regina and Saskatoon, with the lowest number of properties listed for sale in years. In fact, few farms make it to the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) because most are selling through word of mouth. The vast majority of deals are cash purchases and are not dependent on financing.

The hospitality industry has roared back to life in many parts of the country. In Halifax, room rates have tripled, existing hotels are expanding, and a growing number of prominent hotel chains are entering the market, including Moxy Halifax Downtown, part of Marriot Bonvoy’s portfolio. Interprovincial investors are now vying for hotel properties in markets such as Saskatoon.

REITs are re-examining existing portfolios. An eye on changing the mix has resulted in an increase in divestment of certain assets – usually older office or residential buildings, while purchases of other assets are occurring, typically newer construction in office and retail.

Established businesses saw strong activity in Saskatoon. The market, which has experienced a significant influx of interprovincial investors over recent years, as well as increased population growth, has noted unprecedented demand for existing businesses such as grocery stores, gas stations and restaurants.

The office sector in the downtown core continues to struggle. Availability rates climb in almost all markets across the country, with B and C class buildings most impacted. Conversions are helping to take excess space off the market, but it’s not a fix-all solution. Conversions are complex and most buildings are not suited to the process. Business Improvement Areas (BIA) and municipal plans to revitalize downtown areas and attract foot traffic will play a role in reviving core areas. Residential development is certainly helping and improving demand for retail/services as a result.

Adaptive reuse is gaining momentum nationwide. Calgary—with the highest rate in the country, is lowering its availability rate through the adaptive re-use of commercial office buildings. Seventeen residential conversions are either completed, underway or planned in the city to date. Winnipeg has several conversions completed and another four planned. Halifax Regional Municipality and Ottawa are making headway with five and seven converts underway respectively. While Edmonton, Toronto and Vancouver have been slow on the uptake, the first downtown conversions are now planned. Lower downtown office vacancy rates in the Greater Vancouver Area are likely behind the lack of conversion projects to date. The need for density has not only bolstered office conversions, but adaptive re-use of other types of buildings as well, including hotels and underutilized schools. Municipalities are getting more creative in finding solutions to the housing crisis and as such, re-zoning is occurring and likely to intensify.

Vendor take-back financing is key to some land development deals. While elevated interest rates have impacted land development in many markets, some sellers in the Greater Toronto Area and Halifax Regional Municipality are offering buyers vendor take-back mortgages on land purchases to close the deal.

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Market-By-Market Analysis: 2024 Canadian Commercial Real Estate Trends

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2024

Despite hesitation among some commercial real estate investors amid growing concerns over how current conditions will play out, cautious optimism exists. Recovery has been slow from last year’s pull back, but tides are expected to turn in the Greater Vancouver Area, including Squamish to Chilliwack, with the Bank of Canada’s first rate cut. Last year was one of the softest years on record in terms of commercial real estate in the Greater Vancouver Area and industry leaders had hoped for a return to more normal levels of activity in 2024. There was a slight uptick in the number of investors looking at available properties in the first quarter, but the swell was quashed by the federal government’s April announcement raising capital gains taxes to 66 per cent. Sellers immediately pulled back on listings. Cap rates are up on industrial, retail and office product as a result, while multi-family has remained relatively stable due to low vacancy rates in the city. The multi-family asset class has proven to be a safe and secure investment, but some investors avoid multi-family because of the provinces’ Residential Tenancies Act that makes it more difficult for landlords to keep up with inflation.

Want to discuss commercial real estate in the Greater Vancouver Area? Contact Charles Wiebe RE/MAX Commercial Advantage 778.549.8555 charles@cdwandassociates.com cdwandassociates.com

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With population growth rising by just over 200,000 in the province in 2023, the demand for housing has never been greater in Calgary. Multi-family purpose-built rentals in the city are the top-performing asset, with vacancy rates sitting at a tight 1.4 per cent in October of 2023, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The influx of interprovincial migration and immigrants is challenging the city’s housing stock, with vacancy rates at the lowest level in a decade. More than 3,000 new units came on stream in the city in 2023, with newly completed units available the Beltline, Downtown and the North Hill areas. Purpose-built rental apartment starts have overtaken condo starts for the first time in 2023. The CMHC was instrumental in the shift, offering low interest rates, nominal down payments, and long amortization periods to builders and developers who answered the call in abundance, especially after the federal government cancelled the Goods and Services Tax (GST) on new builds.

Want to discuss commercial real estate in the Calgary area? Contact: Darryl Terrio RE/MAX Complete Realty 403.930.8555 Darrylterrio1992@gmail.com

Calgary

Greater Vancouver Area

Edmonton

Unprecedented immigration and interprovincial migration into the province have contributed to a strong economic performance over the past year, underpinning vigorous commercial expansion in both the multi-family and industrial asset classes throughout Edmonton and the surrounding areas. Demand for rental housing is front and centre given the city’s current supply crunch. Multi-family apartment construction is gaining ground after a soft 2023, when apartment starts declined significantly as developers grappled with increased costs, labour shortages and supply chain issues. Housing starts in Alberta hit a new record in April 2024 at 1,636 units, with Edmonton up 64 per cent compared to year-ago levels for the same period. Preferred rates, higher loan-to-value ratios and extended amortization periods offered by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s (CMHC) Apartment Construction Loan Program are behind the push for purpose-built rentals that may not have otherwise moved forward. Vacancy rates dropped to 2.4 per cent in October of 2023 (4.3 per cent in 2022), despite close to 3,000 rental units coming on stream in the Edmonton CMA last year, with most located in the downtown core, West, and Mill Woods, according to the CMHC’s Rental Market Report. CMHC’s mortgage loan insurance for multi-unit student housing has also attracted capital investment from outside the province, with several large student housing projects underway near the University of Alberta, MacEwan University, Concordia University and NorQuest College.

Want to discuss commercial real estate in the Edmonton area? Contact: Shiva Narayan/Don Patterson RE/MAX Excellence 780.804.0296/780.243.1767 Shiva.n@everred.ca Don.patterson@remaxexcellence.com

Regina

An optimistic local and provincial outlook has underpinned strong commercial activity in Regina and the surrounding areas in the first four months of 2024, with a 50 per cent uptick in sales over year-ago levels for the same period. Twenty-four commercial properties have been sold year to date on the city’s Multiple Listing Service (MLS), with larger sales contributing to a 68 per cent increase in average price year over year. Economic expansion is underway in the Queen’s City, with its labour market “firing on all cylinders.” Approximately 10,000 more people are working in the region yet demand for skilled workers is ever growing. International and interprovincial migrants continue to accelerate population growth and drive demand for housing. According to Regina’s recent economic report card, the unemployment rate hovered at 3.4 per cent in March of this year, while non-residential building permits soared 18 per cent as of February year to date, compared to year-ago levels. Recent investment in the city includes the first phase of SaskPower’s new logistics warehouse, which was completed earlier this year, with the second phase expected to open by 2026. The company has also wrapped up its head office refurbishment and the purchase and renovation of a nearby building, which would bring its overall investment in Regina to more than $400 million.

Want to discuss commercial real estate in the Regina area? Contact: Mack MacDonald RE/MAX Crown Real Estate 306.539.6806 saskcommercial@gmail.com

Saskatoon

Saskatoon’s commercial market continued to experience strong demand for multiple asset classes in the first quarter of the year, with transaction volume for existing businesses, hotels and farmland on the upswing as local and interprovincial investors enter the market. More conventional multi-family, industrial and retail categories remain solid year over year, with some upward pressure on values. Positive economic growth in key sectors of the provincial economy have set the stage for a vibrant commercial real estate market in 2024. The province is growing at rates not seen for more than a century, and the economy continues to accelerate with record private capital investment and GDP growth, according to a May 7th press release from the provincial government. The latest GDP numbers for Saskatchewan show GDP reached an all-time high of $77.9 billion in 2023, surpassing year-ago levels by 1.6 per cent–well above the national average of 1.2 per cent. Private capital investment is projected to reach $14.1 billion this year, an increase of 14.4 per cent over 2023. Business sales and acquisitions for well-established retail franchises, convenience and grocery stores, restaurants and gas stations have soared this year, despite incredibly tight lending practices. Limited inventory levels have hampered sales to date, especially for gas stations, but buyers continue to wait patiently in the background.

Want to discuss commercial real estate in the Saskatoon area? Contact: Jeff Chapple, Commercial Specialist & Associate Broker, RE/MAX Bridge City Realty, Realtor® chappleremax@gmail.com www.jeffchapple.ca (306) 740-7161

Winnipeg

While the high cost of construction continues to impede development of Winnipeg’s top-performing asset class, the influx of just over 400,000 sq. ft. of industrial space over the past two quarters has brought some-much needed inventory to this exceptionally tight market. Vacancy rates for industrial have edged slightly higher as a result, now sitting at 3.1 per cent, but space is expected to be absorbed as demand from national tenants continues unabated. Notwithstanding the recently completed inventory, limited availability remains. Additional construction is underway in Winnipeg’s Northwest and Southwest quadrants. Lease rates for industrial space are relatively stable at present, despite the increase in supply. Winnipeg’s “post-pandemic hangover” continues to impact the city’s downtown office segment. A vibrant redevelopment plan for the former Hudson’s Bay building and Portage Place, combined with the conversion of under-utilized office space to residential apartments and hotels will reduce office inventory and should breathe new life into the urban centre in coming years. To date, several offices have been converted to residential, including the top 10-floors of 433 Main St. and the retrofit of 175/85 Carlton St. Hyatt Hotels announced late last year that the six-storey empty office space at 325 Broadway will be converted to a Hyatt Centric, a 140-room boutique hotel. The True North Real Estate Development Plan and the Southern Chiefs’ Economic Development Organization’s vision for Portage Place and the Bay moving forward would be a boon for the city.

Want to discuss commercial real estate in the Winnipeg area? Contact: Joe Banfield RE/MAX Professionals 204.955.6831 jbanfield@jbanfield.com

London

London’s commercial market remains relatively unchanged from year-ago levels, but activity is expected to gain momentum later this year as interest rates move downward. The city’s rapid growth and close proximity to major transportation routes and the US border have bolstered demand for commercial real estate in recent years. Industrial, multi-unit residential purpose-built rentals, and retail remain the strongest asset classes, while office leasing continues to struggle in the city’s core. Demand for industrial properties has remained consistent with year-ago levels, although a lack of available product has hampered sales. Demand is largely driven by end users, many in the fabrication, distribution, warehousing and construction industries, looking for product ranging in size from 5,000 sq. ft. to 20,000 sq. ft. Leasing is also a popular option but space is limited, which has contributed to upward pressure on the price per square foot. Industrial space now rents out for between $10 to $12 per sq. ft., almost triple prices paid seven to eight years ago. With few serviced lots expected to come on stream in the near future, continued upward pressure on prices and lease rates will likely persist.

Want to discuss commercial real estate in the London area? Contact: Mel Vetero RE/MAX Centre City Realty Inc. 519.872.1319 melvetero@rogers.com

Hamilton (Halton to Niagara)

Beds and sheds continued to dominate commercial activity on the north shore of Lake Ontario, between Halton and Niagara Regions in the first quarter of 2024. Multi-family, purpose-built rentals have been the top-performing asset class so far this year, with transactions up 25 per cent across the regions in the first quarter, compared to year-ago levels for the same period. Despite the delta between construction/financing costs and returns, CMHC incentives including 50-year amortization periods and the federal government’s elimination of the Good and Services Tax (GST) have created a more hospitable environment for developers. Many builders have shelved their plans for condominiums, turning to purpose-built rentals to accommodate rapid population growth in the region. Vacancy rates hovered at 2.1 per cent for purpose-built rentals in Hamilton in October of 2023, remaining near historical low levels, according to the CHMC Rental Market Report. In St. Catharines-Niagara, vacancy rates sat at 2.8 per cent, with “the increase in supply helping to offset some of the impacts of increased demand from prospective homebuyers delaying purchases” in today’s high interest environment.

Want to discuss commercial real estate in the Hamilton, Halton and Niagara area? Contact: Conrad Zurini, RE/MAX Escarpment (905) 719-3033 conrad@rmxemail.com

Greater Toronto Area

While growing optimism has nudged some long-term developers off the sidelines in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) with regards to land sales, there continues to be an overall impasse between commercial buyers and sellers. Price remains the primary sticking point in negotiations, with seller expectations more in line with 2021/2022 values and buyers underestimating current values. That said, several larger asset sales have occurred in the first quarter of the year, with multi-family and industrial the most favoured asset classes, followed by retail plazas with an upside for development. Multi-family continues to resonate with investors given incentive programs offered by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) that include more favorable financing rates and longer amortization periods. Rising immigration levels and the current supply crunch ensure that multi-family and apartments remain a solid long-term strategy for both larger institutional investors and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). According to Urbanation’s Q1-2024 Rental Market Results, rental construction starts over the past 12 months were up 174 per cent from 2022 lows. While vacancy rates edged higher for purpose-built rentals, sitting at 2.6 per cent in Q1, the figure is still representative of an undersupplied market. Smaller investors have been active in the market, scooping up four and six-plex apartments throughout the GTA. However, the 16 per cent increase in capital gains tax effective June 25, that will bring tax on gains over $250,000 to 66 per cent may have an impact on the smaller investor moving forward. Several have already listed their investment properties, hoping to sell before the new tax kicks in.

Want to discuss commercial real estate in the Greater Toronto Area? Contact: Michael Davidson, Senior Sales Rep, RE/MAX Realtron Realty Inc. (416) 831-7108 www.TorontoCommercial.Realestate

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Ottawa

While stability characterized first-quarter activity in Ottawa’s commercial real estate market this year, improvement has been noted in the second quarter as investor appetite for commercial properties grows. Industrial continues to be the city’s top-performing asset class, with demand outpacing supply in key areas of the city. Rapid growth is underway in Ottawa and surrounding areas as the region transitions into a distribution hub for Eastern Canada and, to a smaller extent, the Eastern US seaboard. Availability rates for industrial in Ottawa were the lowest of all major Canadian centres in the first quarter of the year, sitting at 3.8 per cent, just slightly ahead of year-ago levels for the same period, according to Altus Group. Many industrial property owners are not interested in selling. Tenants are expanding operations at record pace. Smaller industrial space is extremely limited, with scant availability in central Ottawa at present. Owner-users tend to seek out smaller buildings while single tenants are usually in older, stand-alone buildings. Four very large, new projects with spaces of 20,000 sq. ft. and up are in the final stages of construction with vacancies filling fast for large users and distributors. Lease rates on new buildings with high ceilings currently hover at $18 per sq. ft. (net). Only five industrial buildings are “officially” on the market at present, with pricing that ranges from $300 to $400 per sq. ft.

Want to discuss commercial real estate in the Ottawa area? James A. Palmer CCIM, Broker, Commercial Sales and Leasing RE/MAX Hallmark Realty Group "In Ottawa" 344 O'Connor Street, Ottawa, ON K2P 1W1 office 613 563 1155 or 613 238 5356 cell: 613 698 5356 palmjam1@rogers.com www.jamespalmer.com

Halifax

Interprovincial and foreign investors continue to play a substantial role in Halifax’s commercial real estate market, sparking demand for the city’s industrial, multi-family, retail and to a lesser extent, office properties in the first quarter of the year. The city’s unexpected population growth in recent years has amplified the need for housing and services, which has prompted the municipality to push for greater density, increased investment in infrastructure and healthcare, as well as the reconfiguration and improvement of access routes into Halifax, freeing up acres of land for future commercial and residential developments in the process. Through the Cogswell Interchange Exchange district, a $122 million joint initiative between the province and municipality that will connect downtown with the north end and waterfront, more than 16 acres of road infrastructure will be converted into a mixed-use neighbourhood, including new residential and commercial developments. Industrial remains the top performer in 2024 with vacancy rates falling under one per cent. Demand remains greatest for flex space, warehouses, and stand-alone buildings from single-tenants and owner-operators, many of whom are distributing products throughout Atlantic Canada. Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) such as Skyline have also been active in the market, with projects like the multiphase, net zero development currently underway that will bring more than 400,000 sq. to Bayers Lake Business and Industrial Park by the third quarter of this year.

Want to discuss commercial real estate in the Halifax area? Contact: RE/MAX Nova Craig Snow: 902-499-7886 Brigitte Teleu: 902-830-1841 snowteleu@remaxnova.ca www.remaxnova.com

Renewed provincial optimism has contributed to a significant uptick in demand for commercial properties in the Greater St. John’s area as expectations for economic growth rise in Newfoundland and Labrador for 2024. Commercial transactions in the city are up almost 14 per cent in the first four months of the year, with 25 properties changing hands year to date, compared to 22 sales for the same period in 2023. The government is “working towards a strong, smarter self-sufficient and sustainable province,” according to the province’s Budget 2024 press release. In its economic outlook section, the province reported Real GDP is expected to climb 5.1 per cent in 2024, in large part due to a rebound in oil and nickel production, while opportunities in the green energy, low carbon oil, mining and aquaculture industries are expected to further bolster economic activity. Population growth is forecast to climb almost one per cent year over year, on the heels of a strong 2023. Few jurisdictions can match the abundance of resources of the Newfoundland and Labrador area, given its hydrogen gas, oil, minerals, windmill, and energy projects. Approximately $12.4 billion in major capital spending is underway, with mining and oil and gas leading the province.

Want to discuss commercial real estate in the St. John's area? Contact: Jim Burton, Broker/Owner and Founder of RE/MAX Infinity 709.682.8663 vjamesburton@gmail.com www.infinitynl.ca

St. John's

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Edmonton

Regina

Saskatoon

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