2024 Fall Housing Market Outlook

National overview

Consumer sentiment

REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS

Find an Agent

With the long-anticipated decline in interest rates finally starting to materialize, early indicators from RE/MAX brokers and agents across Canada suggest steady housing market activity this fall, with average sale prices across all housing types expected to increase between one and six per cent in most regions by year’s end. Ahead of the next Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate announcement on September 4, two in 10 Canadians (16 per cent) said they will feel more comfortable engaging in the real estate market once they see there is more than a 100-basis-point cut to the BoC’s lending rate between now and the end of the year, according to a Leger survey commissioned by RE/MAX.

Steady fall market anticipated in majority of regions across Canadian housing market

Ahead of further anticipated interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada, it seems that even the mere prospect of lower rates has boosted confidence among first-time homebuyers, with one-quarter of Canadians (25 per cent) actively saving for a home purchase and confident they will be able to buy soon (with the majority being younger Millennials and Gen Zs aged 18-24, at 35 per cent). On the flipside, dropping interest rates now may prove too little, too late for some current homeowners, with 14 per cent saying they need to renew their mortgage soon, and with the current higher interest rate, they may need to sell their home.

When it comes to financial savings, the Leger survey revealed that while a home purchase is listed among the top three priorities for 25 per cent of Canadians, it has taken a back seat to day-to-day expenses such as utilities and food (58 per cent), and travel (45 per cent). In the search for affordability, one-quarter of Canadians say that they are considering moving to another country (28 per cent) and 25 per cent say they are reconsidering whether to have children or start a family due to housing affordability challenges.

2024 Price Outlook

2024 Sales Outlook

Leger is the largest Canadian-owned full-service market research firm. An online survey of 1,540 Canadians aged 18 years or older, was completed between August 9th and 11th, 2024, using Leger’s online panel. Leger’s online panel has approximately 400,000 members nationally and has a retention rate of 90 per cent. A probability sample of the same size would yield a margin of error of +/-2.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

Green Shoots Sprout This Fall, Amid Lower Interest Rates and Prospects of More Cuts Ahead

According to RE/MAX brokers’ insights, 33 per cent of housing markets are expected to be seller’s markets, but this may shift as competition increases and market conditions evolve.

Consumer Sentiments Going Into the Fall Market

Regional Highlights

RE/MAX brokers and agents across Canada were asked to share an analysis of activity in their local market between January and July 2024, and offer a year-over-year comparisson. These are their findings, and estimated outlooks for fall 2024.

82 per cent or regions surveyed saw the number of listings increase between 2.3 and 34.7 per cent between January and July (2023 – 2024). The number of sale transactions also increased between 3.1 and 7.4 per cent in Atlantic Canada, 3.4 to 30.9 per cent in Western Canada, and between 0.6 and 14.8 per cent in Ontario, except for some larger Ontario markets like Toronto, Brampton, Durham Region, Mississauga, Peterborough, and York Region, where sales trended downward.

blog.remax.ca

Browse Listings

blog.remax.ca

View and download the data table

2024 Fall Housing Market Outlook

Explore the report

Nearly eight in 10 Canadians believe the steps taken by municipal, provincial and federal governments are not enough to solve the housing affordability crisis.

77%

The fall market is usually a good early indicator for activity as we look ahead to early 2025, and we’re headed toward more healthy territory. With interest rates starting to ease, buyers are beginning to come off the sidelines,” says Christopher Alexander, President, RE/MAX Canada. “That’s not to say the fall market will be in full swing according to historic standards. Consumers will drive that trend, so we’ll need to see a bigger move by the Bank of Canada for that to happen.”

While average prices are likely to rise in most markets analyzed, there are some outliers where prices are anticipated to be flat or decline, including Toronto, Hamilton, Burlington, Kitchener-Waterloo, Charlottetown, North Bay and London.

+1-6%

National residential sale price expected to increase in 76% of regions this fall.

RE/MAX brokers note that conditions may shift as interest rates continue to fall, potentially prompting more competition in the market. The remaining regions are anticipated to be a mix of balanced, buyer’s, seller's/balanced and buyer's/balanced.

One-third of housing markets analyzed are expected to be seller’s markets this fall.

Seller's Markets

Sixty per cent of Canadians believe the key to solving housing supply challenges lies in building more diverse housing types.

6 in 10

Two in five Canadians say the high cost of living and housing costs have forced them to change their housing plans for the next six to 12 months.

38%

Less than two in 10 Canadians agree that the rising cost of living has not deterred their home-buying plans.

16%

Due to current higher interest rates, 14 per cent of Canadians who are renewing their mortgage say they may need to sell their home.

14%

Twenty-eight per cent of Canadians said they are considering moving to another country for greater affordability.

1/4

One-quarter of Canadians said they are reconsidering whether to have children or start a family due to housing affordability challenges.

25%

Those who immigrated to Canada (vs. those born in Canada) are more likely to say that buying an investment property is a priority to them.

VS.

Three in 10 Canadians don’t pay attention to the Bank of Canada’s interest rate announcements, and 27 per cent said they don’t understand basis point cuts at all.

28%

Survey Says...

View & download this data table

The Prairies continue to skew towards a seller’s market (Edmonton, AB; Calgary, AB; Saskatoon, SK) which is consistent with 2023, except for Winnipeg, which is a balanced market. On the other hand, in Western Canada, inclusive of the Greater Vancouver Area, BC, and Kelowna, BC, a mix of balanced and buyer’s markets are anticipated. Heading into the fall, prices are forecasted to increase by two to six per cent in regions like the Greater Vancouver Area, BC; and Kelowna, BC; Calgary, AB; Edmonton, AB; Saskatoon, SK; and Winnipeg, MB. Sale transactions are anticipated to increase by five to 15 per cent in the Greater Vancouver Area, BC; Edmonton, AB; and Winnipeg, MB; and a decrease of one per cent in Saskatoon, SK due to inventory shortages, while Calgary, AB anticipates sales will remain flat. RE/MAX broker feedback in Regina, SK indicates that many factors will dictate how the market pans out for the remainder of the year, including government election cycles, The Bank of Canada interest rate announcements and inventory levels. Historically, Regina, SK sees the markets cool from mid-September through the end of the year. All markets in Western Canada and The Prairies – apart from the Greater Vancouver Area, BC - continue to experience supply challenges, with increased activity in the market, as consumers benefit from recent interest rate cuts. Lower mortgage rates have bolstered consumer confidence in the market but paired with low supply, RE/MAX brokers and agents in the region are reporting aggressive offers in conjunction with sellers raising asking prices for residential homes.

Market-By-Market Overview

Western Canada

Despite The Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts, low housing supply continues to impact multiple markets across Ontario, keeping prices high. However, some buyers are gaining more confidence as mortgage rates decrease and are slowly re-entering the market heading into fall, keeping prices relatively stable in comparison to the year prior. Housing supply is expected to become a larger issue once further interest rate cuts motivate buyers on the sidelines to re-enter the market and spark more competition. Although some homebuyer confidence is starting to return, buyers in Toronto remain hesitant as affordability continues to be a challenge, especially for first-time homebuyers. Across Ontario, 12 regions are expecting average residential prices to remain flat or increase modestly heading into the fall. Increasing markets include Timmins, Sudbury, Brampton, Mississauga, Thunder Bay, and Barrie (each rising five per cent), Peterborough, York Region and Kingston (rising three per cent), Niagara (up two per cent), Durham Region and Ottawa (up one per cent), and London (rising a nominal 0.5 per cent). The outliers to this upward trend are Toronto, Kitchener-Waterloo, Hamilton, and Burlington, which are expecting a price decrease. In Ontario, seven markets are expected to experience balanced conditions this fall, while four are anticipated to be seller’s markets, and five are buyer’s markets. Four markets are expecting a mix, with three buyers/balanced conditions, and one sellers/balanced market.

Ontario

Like other regions across the country, Montreal’s housing shortage coupled with interest rates have resulted in a seller’s market, with buyers making multiple offers on properties to remain competitive or opting to wait on the sidelines. Pricing and marketing are crucial for sellers looking to attract hesitant buyers. Echoing similarities to other regions across Canada, Atlantic Canada is also reporting low inventory supply and increased competition when it comes to buyer activity. Buyers are competing aggressively on affordable housing and new listings, causing prices to spike. This is likely a result of current supply challenges and an increase in out-of-town buyers from Western and Central Canada. Unlike in 2023, average residential prices in Atlantic Canada are expected to increase for the remainder of year, by five per cent in Truro and Colchester, NS, one per cent in Halifax, NS, 1.5 per cent in St. John’s Metro, NL, and two per cent in Fredericton, NB, while Charlottetown, PEI is anticipated to remain flat. All markets in Atlantic Canada with the exception of Charlottetown - which is a buyer’s market - are considered to be seller’s markets.

Quebec & Atlantic Canada

Browse listings

Scroll and click through the carousel to explore 30+ cities across Canada.

“Despite some consumer confidence starting to return to the market this season, the reality is Canadians are still grappling with some serious housing affordability challenges rooted in lack of supply. Yes, borrowing is becoming less expensive, but this won’t make housing affordable in the long run,” says Alexander. “Markets ebb and flow, and as buyers re-enter the market and absorb inventory, we’ll see more upward pressure on price.

“Ultimately, for the long-term health of Canada’s housing market, we need a national housing strategy developed in collaboration between all levels of government, that’s more strategic and visionary in how we can use existing lands and real estate to boost supply. In the meantime, buyers would be wise to work with an experienced real estate agent to help navigate those cyclical market ups and downs that often accompany this push and pull of supply and demand.”

One-third of Canadians said they are relying on their home as their only financial plan for retirement.

32%