2024 Hot Pocket Communities Report
detached market Overview
Top Trends
REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS
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Greater Toronto Area, Greater Vancouver & Fraser Valley
Detached Home Trends in Greater Toronto, Greater Vancouver & Fraser Valley
With first-time buyers locked out of the country’s most expensive housing markets, move-up/down buyers and investors have been fuelling detached home-buying activity in the first six months of 2024 in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Greater Vancouver Area (GVA) and Fraser Valley. RE/MAX surveyed 83 communities across the GTA, the GVA and the Fraser Valley, and found that 30 per cent reported an upswing in the number of detached housing sales in the first half of the year (25/83), while close to 40 per cent of markets (33/83) reported an increase in values.
Toronto detached homes led the other regions in rebounding sales momentum, with just over 34 per cent of neighbourhoods in the 416 experiencing stability or growth in buying activity — ahead of the 905, Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley.
Meanwhile, detached price appreciation was led by Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, driven by limited inventory levels. Fraser Valley took the lead, with 83.3 per cent (5/6) of local areas noting an upswing in average price, followed by Greater Vancouver, which saw median values increase in 70.6 per cent of neighbourhoods.
Detached home values climb in over 80% of Fraser Valley communities; 70% of Greater Vancouver; and 40% of the GTA’s 905 areas
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“While affordability remains the top obstacle for first-time homebuyers, more experienced buyers and investors are taking advantage of softer housing values, making their moves ahead of the Bank of Canada’s end to quantitative tightening,” says RE/MAX Canada President Christopher Alexander. “Pent-up demand continues to build, with an estimated 20,000 to 25,000 buyers currently lying in wait in the GTA, and another 5,000 buyers in the Greater Vancouver area ready to pull the trigger. The first interest rate cut in June did little to incentivize buyers, but early indications show the second may have struck a nerve.”
To illustrate, the 10-year average for sales in the Greater Toronto area is just over 92,000 annually. Given the drop to 66,000 sales in 2023, and just over 75,000 homes sold in 2022, the region’s real estate market has seen a shortfall of 43,000 sales during the past two years alone. The same argument can be made for the Greater Vancouver Area, where annual sales have typically averaged over 33,000 during the past decade. Over 26,000 homes sold in 2023, while close to 29,000 homes sold in 2022 – a shortfall of about 11,000 transactions.
92,000
Annual Home Sales
2023
66,000
2022
75,000
Greater Toronto Housing Sales
Greater Vancouver Housing Sales
In the Greater Toronto real estate market, pockets that posted notable percentage gains in home-buying activity include Dufferin Grove, Little Portugal, Trinity-Bellwoods, Palmerston-Little Italy, Niagara, University, Kensington-Chinatown, Bay St. Corridor, Waterfront Communities (C01); Oakwood Village, Humewood-Cedarvale, Yonge-Eglinton, Forest Hill South (C03); Rosedale-Moore Park (C09); Leaside, Thorncliffe Park, Flemingdon Park (C11); Rockcliffe-Smythe, Keelesdale-Eglinton West, Caledonia-Fairbank, Corso Italia-Davenport, Weston-Pelham Park (W03).
“Vibrant downtown/midtown communities remain a perennial favourite among purchasers in Toronto, who are vying for detached properties in coveted blue-chip neighbourhoods such as Rosedale-Moore Park, Forest Hill South, the Kingsway, Leaside, and The Beaches, as well as gentrified areas including Trinity-Bellwoods, Palmerston-Little Italy, and Corso Italia-Davenport,” says Alexander.
Experienced buyer & investor bump in key detached housing markets signals watershed moment
"The ongoing evolution of Toronto's blue-chip neighbourhoods continues to prop up demand, as buyers at all price points are drawn to their attractive walkability scores, entertainment and amenities, including parks, restaurants, trendy shops and cafes," says RE/MAX Canada President Christopher Alexander.
“Buying intentions slowed, while new household formation, lifecycle events, immigration and population growth have continued,” says Alexander. “The right conditions will undoubtably unleash demand. Meantime, certain neighbourhoods have proven stronger than others.”
In the Greater Vancouver real estate market, detached home sales were led by Bowen Island, which experienced a 36.8-per-cent upswing, followed by West Vancouver/Howe Sound at 8.7 per cent; Sunshine Coast at 6.7 per cent; Port Coquitlam at three per cent; and Maple Ridge/Pitt Meadows at 2.7 per cent. North Delta was the only market in the Fraser Valley to report an increase in detached home sales, rising 6.4 per cent over year-ago levels for the same period.
“Recreational communities are represented in the top markets in the GVA, with many buyers seeking to combine the joy of nature with access to the city. Areas such as the Sunshine Coast and Squamish in particular are experiencing a strong uptick in recent years that is also lifestyle driven,” explains Alexander, adding that Bowen Island has increased in popularity, but is only accessible by ferry, making it a true recreational destination.
Detached Home Sales Swing in Greater Toronto Housing Market
Price Gains Led by Fraser Valley & Vancouver Housing Markets
Fraser Valley and Greater Vancouver detached homes stood out in terms of median values the first half of the year, with increases reported in Squamish (+14.2 per cent to $1,570,000), Burnaby (+10.8 per cent to $2,160,000), and Port Coquitlam (+8.6 per cent to $1,465,000). Other pockets reporting rising median prices included North Vancouver (+8.3 per cent to $2,275,000), Richmond (up five per cent to $2,100,000), Vancouver East (+4.6 per cent $1,974,950); and Whistler-Pemberton (+3.4 per cent to $2,350,000). In the Fraser Valley, more nominal increases were posted in Abbotsford, Mission, White Rock/South Surrey, Langley, North Delta, and the City of Surrey, ranging from 0.08 to 3.3 per cent.
In the Greater Toronto Area, 40 per cent of communities in the 905 reported an upswing in average price, with the highest gains reported in Scugog in Durham Region (9.3 per cent to $1,090,069) and Stouffville in York Region (six per cent to $1,641,821). Upward trending, albeit more moderate, was also reported in detached house values in York Region—Aurora (2.6 per cent to $1,707,177), Newmarket (1.7 per cent to $1,362,331), Richmond Hill (0.8 per cent to $2,009,410); Durham Region—Brock (0.2 per cent to $766,933), Uxbridge (4.6 per cent $1,433,054); and Halton Region—Burlington (2.2 per cent to $1,480,854), Halton Hills (1.7 per cent to $1,230,986), and Oakville (0.7 per cent to $2,042,863).
In Toronto Proper, almost 29 per cent (10/35) of markets registered upward momentum in detached housing values. Toronto’s West End led in terms of rising housing values, with five of 10 neighbourhoods experiencing an upswing in average price. The highest increase was noted in the Kingsway South, Princess-Rosethorn, Edenbridge Humber Valley, Islington-City Centre West, Etobicoke-West Mall, Markland Wood, and Eringate-Centennial-West Deane (W08) where detached values rose 9.1 per cent to $1,824,330, followed by High Park North, Junction Area, Runnymede-Bloor West Village, Lambton-Baby Point, Dovercourt-Wallace, and Emerson Junction (W02) at 7.8 per cent to $1,751,504. The Beaches, Woodbine Corridor and East-End Danforth (E02) rounded out the top three markets in the 416, jumping 6.3 per cent to $1,897,167.
"Many purchasers in today’s market are first-time trade-up buyers, moving from semi-detached homes, townhomes, or link dwellings to detached housing,” says Alexander. “This cohort has been fortunate in the sense that the entry-level price range has been relatively sheltered from downward pressure and has made the step up to a single-detached ownership less onerous than in past years. While affordability remains top of mind, first-time trade-up buyers were active in various pockets and price points.”
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to detached homes on small lots in the GTA’s east end. A joint report on investor losses, from Urbanation and CIBC Economics, found that on average, condo investors who closed on their newly completed units in 2023 saw negative cash flow of close to $600 per month. Given that statistic, it’s not that surprising that investors are revisiting their investment options.
Disenchanted condominium investors have shifted their attention
—many with attached two-car garages on good sized lots—for future use and renting them out in the interim.
Empty nesters and retirees in Halton Region are buying bungalows
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in Leaside, Rosedale, and the Kingsway, compated to year-ago levels. The Beaches and Vancouver West experienced an uptick in detached values year-over-year.
Blue-chip neighbourhoods remain robust, with buying activity up
3
and midtown areas are experiencing healthy demand, with multiple offers a frequent occurrence. Unlike 2021 and 2022, accepted offers were rarely over list price.
Chronically undersupplied micro-markets in Toronto’s downtown
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to an anticipated uptick in housing values as the Bank of Canada (BoC) winds down its quantitative tightening mandate.
An influx of buyers into West Vancouver/Howe Sound is attributed
5
in the GTA, with average prices under $1 million in multiple communities. Softer housing values north of the GTA have sparked an increase in demand in more affordable areas including Newmarket and Stouffville.
Durham Region is the most affordable area for detached homes
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take the next step in home ownership, especially in the top end of the GTA. Detached housing sales over the $5-million price point in the Greater Toronto Area are up close to 19 per cent, with 127 detached sales reported in the GTA in the first six months of the year, compared to 107 sold during the same period in 2023.
Trade-up buyers are taking advantage of lower housing values to
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both residents and non-residents are faced with the city’s empty house tax. On a vacant $1.5-million property that is not a principal residence, the 3.5 per cent rate would bring the annual tax bill to $52,500 (3 per cent city/0.5 per cent province). The cost would be even greater for a foreign owner or satellite family.
Taxes remain an obstacle, particularly in Greater Vancouver, where
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in lieu of purchasing investment properties to circumvent the recently implemented capital gains increase.
Some investors in the GVA are upscaling their principal residences
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Trend-spotting
Trend-spotting:
Buyers In Search of Affordability
10-year avg.
100K
90K
80K
70K
60K
50K
40K
30K
20K
10K
0
Annual Home Sales
10-year avg.
2023
100K
90K
80K
70K
60K
50K
40K
30K
20K
10K
0
2022
29,000
26,000
33,000
Affordable housing options remain sought after throughout the GTA, GVA and Fraser Valley. The top five housing markets identify communities where home ownership is a possibility for first-time buyers with prices below the $1-million benchmark. Durham, Dufferin and York, as three of the fastest-growing regions in the GTA’s 905, are home to the top four most affordable neighbourhoods, offering detached housing options under $1 million. The Sunshine Coast in Greater Vancouver with a median price of $945,857 rounds out the top five.
“On the whole, while home-buying activity is down, a slow recovery is underway,” says Alexander. “Sidelined buyers are expected to make their way back into housing markets, albeit cautiously for now. Improving fundamentals in the months ahead should stimulate greater momentum into the fall and through the beginning of 2025. While improving interest rates will help, it’s undeniable that some first-time buyers are up against considerable challenges likely to temper momentum at the entry level.”
There are still some policy levers that could remove barriers to affordable homeownership. Recently announced government intervention in terms of longer amortization periods (30 years) for insured resale home purchasers, similar to what’s been introduced for new construction, will enable more buyers to enter the market. However, given high housing values in major markets in Ontario and British Columbia, it may not prove enough. Extending the same option to resale homes over $1 million should be considered in order to alleviate some of the country’s current housing crisis to a greater extent.
"All boats rise with the tide – once the first-time buyers segment gains greater traction, we should see a ripple effect," says Alexander. "We’re not there quite yet, but the tide is beginning to turn."
“Overall home sales in the GTA in July, for example, were up 3.3 per cent compared to July 2023. Meanwhile, sales in the first six months of 2024 are down just four per cent compared to this same period one year ago. It’s a sign that the gap is closing amid growing buyer confidence. The only dark cloud on the horizon is the possibility of a U.S. recession given stock market volatility that recently culminated in a Black Friday/Black Monday. While a rebound followed, a disappointing U.S. jobs report in July, combined with the U.S. Feds decision to hold interest rates once again, has dampened the outlook of some analysts. With closely tied economies, Canada is not insulated, so expect buyers to stay tuned to any possible economic headwinds.”
Median values for detached housing in Vancouver Proper were buoyed by supply shortages at affordable price points in the first half of 2024, according to Elizabeth McQueen of RE/MAX Select Properties, based in Vancouver. While sales fell just short of last year’s levels in Vancouver East, down 0.6 per cent from the same period in 2023, median price climbed 4.6 per cent to $1,974,950. In Vancouver West, sales fell by 5.4 per cent to 439 units, but values rose 1.6 per cent to $3,557,500. West Vancouver/Howe Sound was the one outlier, posting an 8.7 per cent uptick in homebuying activity, with detached sales rising to 213, up from 196 in 2023.
Market-by-Market Overview
Vancouver Proper
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Low inventory levels continue to support detached housing values in both the Greater Vancouver Area (GV) and the Fraser Valley, with median prices up in almost 71 per cent of markets in the GVA and just over 83 per cent of market in the Fraser Valley in the first six months of 2024, according to Tim Hill of RE/MAX All Points Realty based in Vancouver. Home-buying activity, however, has gradually slowed in both areas, after a strong start to the year.
Fraser Valley/Vancouver
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Halton Region was one of the top-performing regions in the Greater Toronto Area in the first six months of the year, with overall average price for detached housing up just over one per cent to $1,627,858 and sales falling just short of 2023 levels for the same period, according to Conrad Zurini, owner of RE/MAX Escarpment Realty.
Halton Region
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While affordability continues to be a monumental challenge for first time buyers in York Region, existing homeowners with equity are cautiously entering the market, according to Cam Forbes of RE/MAX Realtron Realty. Opportunities exist throughout the region at present, with the most affordable communities including Newmarket and Stouffville experiencing some upward pressure on values.
York Region
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Unlike markets in the 905-area code, communities in the central core are smaller, more established, and are typically undersupplied in terms of listing inventory – some registering single digits when it comes to detached listings, according to Tim Syrianos, owner of RE/MAX Ultimate Realty. Serious buyers continue to fuel demand in these blue-chip areas, sparking multiple offers on homes priced at fair market value, yet rarely exceeding list price. Overall buyers remain skittish, with countless stories of purchasers abandoning their search after viewing 30, 40 and 50 properties. The nominal decline in the overnight rate of 0.25 basis points in June did little to re-invigorate the market. Despite further interest rate relief announcement in late July, many buyers are choosing to take the summer off and return to their home search in September, when interest rates are expected to fall further.
Toronto – Central Core
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Detached housing sales in Toronto’s east end remained tight in the first six months of the year, with local communities characterized by low inventory levels and high sales-to-list price ratios, according to Steve Tabrizi, owner of RE/MAX Hallmark. Strong demand has fuelled upward momentum in average price in perennial favourites such as the Beaches, Woodbine Corridor and East-End Danforth (E02), Birchcliffe-Cliffside, Oakridge (E06) and Highland Creek (E10) in the first six months of 2024, while homebuying activity rose in Riverdale, Leslieville, and Blake-Jones (E01), Wexford, Maryvale, Clairlea-Birchmount, and Dorset Park (E04) and Highland Creek, West Hill and Scarborough Rouge (E10). With an average of 12.6 listing days on market in June, the East End, and more specifically, established neighbourhoods near the waterfront, remains exceptionally popular with young buyers and those with families. Overall, sales were down a modest 3.4 per cent in East Toronto neighbourhoods in the first half of the year.
Toronto – East End
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