2023 Fall Housing Market Outlook
CONSUMER TRENDS
EXPERT INSIGHTS
REGIONAL MARKET TRENDS
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WESTERN CANADA
ONTARIO
QUEBEC
ATLANTIC canada
The island of Montreal experienced a decrease in prices by 5.8 per cent between January – June 2022 and 2023, as well as an 18.2 per cent decrease in number of sales. Conversely, number of listings increased by 63.7 per cent in the same period. Unlike other regions, the area has properties available, however, mostly renovated, and well-priced homes are moving. The region is also seeing a new trend of assuming sellers’ mortgages, transferring mortgage, or paying in cash, primarily among high-end buyers. RE/MAX brokers reported an increase in these practices as a way for buyers to combat rising intertest rates and mortgage payments.
Quebec
If the fall market is an early indicator for 2024 activity, we may see a very active first quarter as buyers and sellers take advantage of easing prices into the earlier part of next year.
While we wait for governments to implement a tangible national housing strategy to boost Canada’s supply of both affordable and diverse housing, the market is starting to ease in some regions. This is bringing some much-needed relief from the sky-high prices we’ve experienced over the past couple of years.
The Canadian housing market has historically given homeowners great returns and solid financial security. We believe in the long-term health of Canada’s housing market, but in order to protect it, we need to acknowledge and address the housing supply shortage in every city, town, and neighbourhood across the country.
Christopher Alexander
President,
RE/MAX Canada
Expert Insights
Consumer Trends
Based on RE/MAX broker and agent insights, 44% of housing markets in Canada are expected to be sellers’ markets in 2023, while the rest are anticipated to experience a market mix between balanced, buyers, sellers/balanced and buyers/balanced, depending on location in the specific region.
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1 in 10
Canadians are planning to buy a home in the next 12 months.
Regional Market Trends
Listings declined from 1.2% to 40%. The number of sales transactions in all regions surveyed as part of the report experienced declines year-over-year, from a decrease of 4.1% to upwards of 39.6%.
74.1% of regions analyzed experienced a decline in listings from January through July year-over-year (2022 and 2023).
More on this trend, here
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•Average residential price is softening; outliers include larger markets where prices are expected to rise, such as Greater Toronto Area, (+2.5%), Calgary (+4.5%) and Sudbury (+5%).
•33% of Canadians interested in buying/selling a home in the next 12 months will wait and see how interest rate changes play out.
•Lack of affordable housing inventory leading 55% of Gen Zs and 49% of Millennials to change their housing plans.
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While Canada grapples with the highest interest rates it’s seen in decades, RE/MAX Canada brokers and agents across the country are reporting that both the interest rate climate and lack of inventory are likely to result in a softer market this fall. The national average residential sale price across all home types is expected to remain flat, with no change anticipated between now and the end of the year.
RE/MAX Canada network expects residential sale prices to remain flat this fall
Affordable housing
55% of Gen Zs and 49% of Millennials are changing their housing plans due to lack of affordable housing inventory.
33%
of Canadians who want to buy and/or sell a home in the next 12 months will wait and see how interest rates play out.
51%
of Canadians say further interest rate increases this year will not change their financial situation or their plans to buy or sell a home.
Timing the market
Younger Canadians (47% of Gen Zs and 52% of Millennials) are more likely to rely on Bank of Canada interest rate announcements to determine the best time to buy or sell a home.
Elton Ash
Executive
Vice-President,
RE/MAX Canada
Ontario is a diverse mix of average residential sale price estimates heading into the fall, with seven regions reporting a decrease expected including Hamilton, ON, Ottawa, ON, Windsor, ON (two per cent), North Bay, ON (three per cent), Kitchener-Waterloo, ON (four per cent), Durham Region, ON, Peterborough, ON (five per cent), while Thunder Bay, ON, and Peel Region, ON are likely to remain relatively flat (zero per cent) this fall. Regions that are anticipating an increase in average residential sale price estimates this fall include; Burlington, ON (one per cent), Lakelands West, ON, Oakville, ON (two per cent), York Region, ON (2.2 per cent), Greater Toronto Area (GTA), ON (2.5 per cent), Sudbury, ON (five per cent).
In Ontario, 53 per cent of markets are likely to be sellers markets this fall, while 40 per cent are anticipated to be balanced, and seven per cent buyers. Across Ontario, the simultaneous impact of inventory shortages and rising interest rates has influenced markets throughout 2023 and will continue to do-so heading into the fall. Lack of inventory is the most pressing factor influencing activity this fall in regions such as Sudbury, ON, Peel Region, ON, and Ottawa, ON, while other markets reported both being major contributors to market activity this fall.
Ontario
While rising interest rates throughout 2023 has created some consumer reluctancy to enter the market in some regions, by comparison, buyers in regions like Hamilton and Burlington were actually aided by rising interest rates this year.
In regions, like the GTA, it’s important to note that while inventory will continue to be a challenge in the long-term, in the short-term as we look ahead to the fall, interest rates are likely to be the most pressing factor influencing the market. Regions such as Hamilton-Burlington are also likely to be most heavily impacted by interest rates heading into the fall.
Contrary to other regions across the country, in Western Canada and the Prairies, the majority of markets are anticipating average residential sale prices to increase this fall by 0.7 per cent – 4.5 per cent in regions such as Calgary, AB, Edmonton, AB, Winnipeg, MB, Red Deer, AB. On the flip side, regions such as Greater Vancouver Area (GVA), BC, Kelowna, BC, are expecting sales to soften by five per cent.
The mix of outlooks is also reflective of the estimated market type heading into the fall, with the majority of regions reporting a mix of sellers/balanced depending on the price point, property type, location in the specific region.
Western Canada
Keeping with the trend across the country, all markets in Atlantic Canada surveyed reported low inventory in tandem with rising interest rates which have adversely affected the market, especially for buyers with lower price points (Halifax, NS, Charlottetown area, PEI), or first-time homebuyers (St. John’s, NF).
In Atlantic Canada, average residential prices are expected to decline between one and two per cent in Halifax, NS and Charlottetown Area, PEI for the remainder of 2023 and increase by three per cent in Moncton, NB. Average residential prices are expected to remain flat in St. John’s, NF for the back-half of 2023. Most markets in Atlantic Canada are considered sellers’ markets (St. John’s, NL, Halifax, N.S and Moncton, NB) apart from the Charlottetown area, PEI, which is considered balanced.
Atlantic Canada
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WESTERN CANADA
ONTARIO
QUEBEC
ATLANTIC canada
Based on RE/MAX broker and agent insights, 44% of housing markets in Canada are expected to be sellers’ markets in 2023, while the rest are anticipated to experience a market mix between balanced, buyers, sellers/balanced and buyers/balanced, depending on location in the specific region.
Search for Listings
More on this trend, here
74.1% of markets analyzed experienced a year-over-year decline in listings between January and July.
Listings declined from 1.2% to 40%. The number of sales transactions in all regions surveyed as part of the report experienced declines year-over-year, from a decrease of 4.1% to upwards of 39.6%.
Regional Market Trends
Elton Ash
Executive Vice-President
RE/MAX Canada
Christopher Alexander
President,
RE/MAX Canada
Expert Insights
The Canadian housing market has historically given homeowners great returns and solid financial security. We believe in the long-term health of Canada’s housing market, but in order to protect it, we need to acknowledge and address the housing supply shortage in every city, town, and neighbourhood across the country.
If the fall market is an early indicator for 2024 activity, we may see a very active first quarter as buyers and sellers take advantage of easing prices into the earlier part of next year. In the meantime, the market is starting to ease in some regions, bringing much-needed relief from sky-high prices.
Sign Up for Our Newsletter
Timing the market
Younger Canadians (47% of Gen Zs and 52% of Millennials) are more likely to rely on Bank of Canada interest rate announcements to determine the best time to buy or sell a home.
51%
of Canadians say further interest rate hikes this year will not change their financial situation or plans to buy/sell a home.
33%
of Canadians who want to buy and/or sell a home in the next 12 months will wait and see how interest rates play out.
Affordable housing
55% of Gen Zs and 49% of Millennials are changing their housing plans due to lack of affordable housing inventory.
1 in 10
Canadians are planning to buy a home in the next 12 months.
Consumer Trends
While Canada grapples with the highest interest rates it’s seen in decades, RE/MAX Canada brokers and agents across the country are reporting that both the interest rate climate and lack of inventory are likely to result in a softer market this fall. The national average residential sale price across all home types is expected to remain flat, with no change anticipated between now and the end of the year.
residential sale prices expected to remain flat this fall
2023 Fall Housing Market Outlook
•Residential sale prices expected to decrease XX% this fall
•51% of RE/MAX brokers and agents say inventory will be a more pressing factor in fall housing market activity than fluctuating interest rates
Read the report
Contrary to other regions across the country, in Western Canada and the Prairies, the majority of markets are anticipating average residential sale prices to increase this fall by 0.7 per cent – 4.5 per cent in regions such as Calgary, AB, Edmonton, AB, Winnipeg, MB, Red Deer, AB. On the flip side, regions such as Greater Vancouver Area (GVA), BC, Kelowna, BC, are expecting sales to soften by five per cent.
The mix of outlooks is also reflective of the estimated market type heading into the fall, with the majority of regions reporting a mix of sellers/balanced depending on the price point, property type, location in the specific region.
Western Canada
Ontario is a diverse mix of average residential sale price estimates heading into the fall, with seven regions reporting a decrease expected including Hamilton, ON, Ottawa, ON, Windsor, ON (two per cent), North Bay, ON (three per cent), Kitchener-Waterloo, ON (four per cent), Durham Region, ON, Peterborough, ON (five per cent), while Thunder Bay, ON, and Peel Region, ON are likely to remain relatively flat (zero per cent) this fall.
Regions that are anticipating an increase in average residential sale price estimates this fall include; Burlington, ON (one per cent), Lakelands West, ON, Oakville, ON (two per cent), York Region, ON (2.2 per cent), Greater Toronto Area (GTA), ON (2.5 per cent), Sudbury, ON (five per cent).
In Ontario, 53 per cent of markets are likely to be sellers markets this fall, while 40 per cent are anticipated to be balanced, and seven per cent buyers.
Across Ontario, the simultaneous impact of inventory shortages and rising interest rates has influenced markets throughout 2023 and will continue to do-so heading into the fall. Lack of inventory is the most pressing factor influencing activity this fall in regions such as Sudbury, ON, Peel Region, ON, and Ottawa, ON, while other markets reported both being major contributors to market activity this fall.
While rising interest rates throughout 2023 has created some consumer reluctancy to enter the market in some regions, by comparison, buyers in regions like Hamilton and Burlington were actually aided by rising interest rates this year.
In regions, like the GTA, it’s important to note that while inventory will continue to be a challenge in the long-term, in the short-term as we look ahead to the fall, interest rates are likely to be the most pressing factor influencing the market. Regions such as Hamilton-Burlington are also likely to be most heavily impacted by interest rates heading into the fall.
Ontario
The island of Montreal experienced a decrease in prices by 5.8 per cent between January – June 2022 and 2023, as well as an 18.2 per cent decrease in number of sales. Conversely, number of listings increased by 63.7 per cent in the same period. Unlike other regions, the area has properties available, however, mostly renovated, and well-priced homes are moving. The region is also seeing a new trend of assuming sellers’ mortgages, transferring mortgage, or paying in cash, primarily among high-end buyers. RE/MAX brokers reported an increase in these practices as a way for buyers to combat rising intertest rates and mortgage payments.
Quebec
Keeping with the trend across the country, all markets in Atlantic Canada surveyed reported low inventory in tandem with rising interest rates which have adversely affected the market, especially for buyers with lower price points (Halifax, NS, Charlottetown area, PEI), or first-time homebuyers (St. John’s, NF).
In Atlantic Canada, average residential prices are expected to decline between one and two per cent in Halifax, NS and Charlottetown Area, PEI for the remainder of 2023 and increase by three per cent in Moncton, NB. Average residential prices are expected to remain flat in St. John’s, NF for the back-half of 2023. Most markets in Atlantic Canada are considered sellers’ markets (St. John’s, NL, Halifax, N.S and Moncton, NB) apart from the Charlottetown area, PEI, which is considered balanced.
Atlantic Canada
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EXPERT INSIGHTS
REGIONAL MARKET TRENDS
CONSUMER TRENDS
Download Data Table
