National Market Trends
A look back at real estate activity in 2022 and what to expect in the year ahead.
Amid rising interest rates, and a looming recession, RE/MAX Canada is anticipating a modest decline of 3.3 per cent in average residential sales prices across the country in 2023. The estimates are based on surveys of RE/MAX brokers and agents from coast to coast.
In sharp contrast to 2022, most regions analyzed in the report will experience more balanced conditions in 2023 – a trend that’s already starting to materialize as a result of current economic conditions.
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Consumer data was sourced by Leger through an online survey of 1,544 Canadians, completed between November 4-6, 2022, using Leger’s online panel. Leger is the largest Canadian-owned full-service market research firm. Leger's online panel has approximately 400,000 members nationally and has a retention rate of 90 per cent. A probability sample of the same size would yield a margin of error of +/- 2.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
About the RE/MAX 2023 Canadian Housing Market Outlook Report
Historical values are sourced from CREA or Local Board statistics. Estimates and forecasts are based on the opinion of independent RE/MAX broker/owners and affiliates. For More information visit REMAX.ca. Each RE/MAX office is independently owned and operated. Your use or reliance on the information above is at your own risk. The information is provided without any warranties of any kind, either express or implied. Neither RE/MAX nor any person associated with RE/MAX makes any warranty or representation with respect to the completeness, quality, or accuracy of the information. To the fullest extent provided by law, RE/MAX hereby disclaims all warranties of any kind, whether express or implied,statutory, or otherwise, including but not limited to any warranties of non-infringement and fitness for particular purpose. RE/MAX also disclaims any responsibility for the content, the materials, the accuracy of the information, and/or the quality of the information provided.
highlights
The biggest price declines are expected to occur in Ontario and Western Canada.
National average price expected to decrease 3.3%
The trend has already started to materialize due to current economic conditions.
55% of regions likely to shift to balanced or buyer's markets
This trend is more prominent in Ontario, where 11/21 regions analyzed could see more sales in 2023.
sales expected to increase in 34% of markets analyzed
EXPERT EVALUATION
We expect that market activity will return to a more-regular pace, as economic conditions stabilize toward the second half of 2023.
Christopher Alexander, President
Canadians are understandably hesitant to engage in the market early in 2023. Despite this, more Canadians see real estate as a solid long-term investment when compared to this time last year. Governments must collaborate to address supply challenges, to make home ownership feasible for those who want it.
2023
RE/MAX experts give an overview of the national housing market and their insights into 2023
Canadian Housing Market Outlook
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RE/MAX Canada
Elton Ash, Executive Vice President
RE/MAX Canada
Canadian Consumer Trends
We surveyed Canadians for their sentiments on the 2022 housing market, and their expectations for 2023.
Western Canada
In Nanaimo, BC, the Greater Vancouver Area, BC, Kelowna, BC and Winnipeg, MB average residential sale prices are expected to decline by 5-10%
Victoria, BC, Calgary, AB, Edmonton, AB, and Saskatoon, SK are all expected to see average residential sale prices increase between 2-7%
67% of regions in Western Canada are considered balanced markets, including Victoria, BC, GVA, BC, Calgary, AB, Edmonton, AB, Regina, SK and Winnipeg, MB.
Nanaimo, BC and Kelowna, BC are both buyer’s markets, while Saskatoon, SK is categorized as a seller’s market for single-detached properties and a buyer’s market for condominiums.
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of Canadians surveyed said they currently own their home.
60%
of Canadians do not currently own a home, but expect to in the future.
17%
of Canadians do not own a home and never plan to own one.
4%
of Canadians believe home ownership is the best long-term investment they can make. This is up from 49% in 2021.
73%
(84%) and more affluent households (79%) are more likely to agree that home ownership is the best investment.
Homeowners
of Canadians are aware of home price forecasts. 51% of them said varying forecasts make them more confused or worried.
50%
of Canadians believe measures like the two-year ban on foreign buyers and the foreign buyer’s tax will increase supply of affordable housing for local buyers.
54%
2022 in Review
2023 Outlook
of Canadians are concerned that further interest rate increases will impact their ability to buy or sell a home in 2023.
aren't confident in their financial situation, especially those earning under $60K, and and non-home owners.
38%
of Canadians don't plan to buy a home in early 2023, and 62% don't plan to sell, due to market conditions.
67%
of Canadians believe a 2-year ban on foreign buyers will increase the supply of affordable housing for locals.
54%
of Canadians are considering moving to another province in 2023 to find more affordable housing.
15%
Ontario
In London, Kitchener-Waterloo, Barrie, the GTA, Durham, and Lakelands West (Georgian Bay area) average residential sale prices are expected to decline by two to 15 per cent in 2023.
Sudbury, Hamilton-Burlington, Oakville, Brampton, Ottawa, Mississauga, Muskoka, Niagara, Windsor, York Region, Haliburton, Peterborough and The Kawarthas, and Kingston are all expected to see average residential sale prices increase between two to eight per cent in 2023.
40 per cent of regions in Ontario Canada are balanced markets, including London, Kitchener-Waterloo, Oakville, Barrie, Toronto, Windsor, Lakelands West and Kingston.
Hamilton-Burlington, Brampton, Mississauga and Niagara are buyer’s markets, while Sudbury, Muskoka, Durham York Region, Haliburton, Ottawa and Peterborough and the Kawarthas favour sellers.
Atlantic Canada
In Moncton, NB, Saint John, NB and Fredericton, NB, average residential sale prices are expected to decline between 3.5 and five per cent in 2023.
Halifax, NS and St. John’s, NL are both expected to see average residential sale price increases in 2023, rising eight and four per cent respectively, while sale prices are anticipated to remain unchanged in Charlottetown, PEI.
With the exception of St. John’s, NL (a balanced market), all regions in Atlantic Canada are considered to favour sellers.
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Quebec
In Quebec City, average residential sale prices are expected to decline by 10 per cent respectively.
The region of Montreal is a seller’s market, while Quebec City is a balanced market.
Based on insights provided by RE/MAX brokers and agents, 60 per cent of housing markets in Canada are expected to be balanced in 2023, impacted by modest price declines and easing demand.
Get regional market insights by clicking the map icons.
Housing market conditions can change quickly, and they often do. If you're planning to buy or sell a home in 2023, stay up to speed on the latest trends and listings as they become available.
Calgary
Edmonton
Vancouver
Kelowna
Nanaimo
Regina
Saskatoon
Victoria
Winnipeg
Fredericton
Saint John
Moncton
Halifax
Charlottetown
St. John's
Greater Montreal Area
Quebec City
Barrie
Brampton
Durham Region
Grand Bend
Greater Toronto Area
Haliburton
Hamilton-Burlington
Kingston
Kitchener-Waterloo
London
Lakelands (West)
Mississauga
Muskoka
Atlantic Canada
All of Atlantic Canada’s regions analyzed are currently seller’s markets, with potential for average sale prices to increase between 5-20%
Due to this spike in demand, much of the region has experienced increasing competition, especially among single-family detached homes and condos in some cities
Seller’s market conditions are expected to prevail across the region in 2022, with the exception of Charlottetown and Southern Nova Scotia
Quebec
In Quebec City, average residential sale prices are expected to decline by 10 per cent respectively.
The region of Montreal is a seller’s market, while Quebec City is a balanced market.
Greater Montreal Area
Quebec City
Ontario
Market activity across the province is anticipated to remain steady in 2022, with continued average price growth, although at widely varying degrees
When it comes to price appreciation year-over year, there are a few regions that stood out in 2021 for their exponential increases across all property types
Niagara
Oakville
Ottawa
Peterborough- Kawarthas
Sudbury
Thunder Bay
York Region
Windsor
RE/MAX brokers and agents in Canada were asked to provide an analysis of their local market in 2022 and share their estimated outlook for 2023. Based on their insights, 60 per cent of housing markets in Canada are expected to be balanced in 2023, impacted by modest price declines and easing demand.
Get regional market insights by clicking on the icons and links below.
of Canadians said they feel confident that their financial situation will remain stable in 2023.
54%
are concerned that further interest rate hikes will impact their ability to buy or sell a home in 2023.
aren't confident in their financial situation, especially non-homeowners and lower-income households.
38%
of Canadians don't plan to buy a home in early 2023, and 62% don't plan to sell in that period, due to current market conditions.
67%
of Canadians believe a two-year ban on foreign buyers will increase the supply of affordable homes for local buyers.
54%
of Canadians are considering moving to another province in 2023 for more affordable housing. Non-homeowners are twice as likely to relocate.
15%
of Canadians surveyed said they currently own their home.
60%
of Canadians do not currently own a home, but expect to in the future.
17%
of Canadians do not own their home, and never plan to own one.
4%
of Canadians believe home ownership is the best long-term investment they can make. This is up from 49% in 2021.
73%
(84%) and more affluent households (79%) are more likely to agree that home ownership is the best investment.
homeowners
of Canadians are aware of home price forecasts. 51% of them said varying forecasts make them more confused or worried.
50%
2022 in Review
2023 Outlook
aren't confident in their financial situation, especially non-homeowners and lower-income households.
38%
45%
45%
of Canadians said they feel confident their financial situation will remain stable in 2023.
54%