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Heat Mapping of Seerist’s 26 ‘War’ VEs in Iran on 28 Feb 2026
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Middle East Conflict Updated 18 Mar 2026
Iranian Drone & Missile Attacks on Oil & Gas Facilities in the Middle East
48-hour Update
Ongoing Commercial Travel Disruptions in the Middle East
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12-Hour Timeline of Conflict Evolution
Escalating US-Israel-Iran Military Confrontation
Iran’s Threat to Block the Strait of Hormuz
Escalating Middle East Conflict: Iran, Israel, Lebanon, 3 Mar 2026
Strait of Hormuz Closure Triggers Global Shipping Disruptions
4-day Update
New Supreme Leader Likely to be Selected
Global Unrest and Protests
6-Day Update
Targeting of Critical Infrastructure in the Middle East
10-day Update
Mining of Strait of Hormuz remains unconfirmed
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10-Day Update
Iran’s Cyber Threats During the 2026 Middle East Conflict
14-day Update
18-day Update
Middle East: Key Developments
Control Risks Analysis - Absence of intent to engage in negotiations to sustain hostilities in Middle East Israel on 17 March claimed it killed Ali Larijani, head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, in a strike on Tehran overnight; Iran has not confirmed Larijani’s death. In the absence of mutual intent to engage in negotiations or seek a truce, the US and Israel’s war with Iran will continue, sustaining hostilities in the region.
Posted 17 March 2026
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Key developments Iran: Also on 17 March, Israel said it targeted Gholamreza Soleimani, the head of the Basij volunteer paramilitary force, which is affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Israel: Israel on 17 March announced its defence systems were intercepting missiles launched by Iran. Tehran’s Tasnim News Agency quoted the Iranian military as claiming that cyber technology centres and weapons manufacturing facilities belonging to the Israeli police had been targeted. UAE: The General Civil Aviation Authority (GCAA) on the morning of 17 March announced the reopening of UAE airspace after it was closed during the night as an “exceptional precautionary measure”. Falling debris from a ballistic missile interception killed a Pakistani national in Abu Dhabi’s Bani Yas area, bringing the total number of fatalities in the UAE as a result of Iranian strikes to eight. Authorities said a fire caused by a drone attack at the Shah oil and gas field, which is one of the largest gas fields operated in the world, was brought under control. Operations at the facility, which is operated by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), have been suspended and the damage is being assessed; no injuries were reported. Meanwhile, Reuters on 17 March reported that an attack caused a fire in the port of Fujairah, a key export terminal where oil loading by ADNOC has been halted. Saudi Arabia: Authorities reported intercepting and destroying three drones in the Eastern province, which is home to the Shaybah oil field, hours after more than a dozen drones were downed in the province. Other Arab Gulf countries: Qatar intercepted missiles on 17 March with debris from the interception resulting in a fire in an industrial zone, though no injuries were reported. Kuwait also reported missile and drone interceptions, with authorities stating that falling debris injured two medics in an ambulance. Kuwaiti authorities reported the arrest of 16 individuals – 14 Kuwaitis and two Lebanese – accused of affiliation with the Iran-backed Lebanese Shia movement Hizbullah. Iraq: Iran-backed paramilitary groups carried out several attacks across Iraq on 17 March. Three drones and four rockets were reportedly fired at the US embassy in the capital Baghdad. The Financial Times quoted two security officials as stating that shrapnel from intercepted drones hit the embassy. The attacks were the most intense to target the diplomatic mission since the beginning of the US and Israel’s war with Iran on 28 February. Earlier in the day, Al-Rasheed Hotel, which is also located in Baghdad’s International Zone, was also targeted.
Source: Seerist Verified Events, Control Risks Analysis
Zooming In: Lebanon and Hizbullah
Control Risks Analysis: Conflict in Lebanon to intensify in coming weeks, oil and gas remains Iran’s key target in Gulf Arab region The IDF on 16 March announced it had begun “limited and targeted” ground operations in southern Lebanon. The operation is likely to last several weeks at a minimum as Israel looks to further counter Lebanese Shia movement Hizbullah. The IDF carried out air strikes in the early hours of 15 March in southern Lebanon, including in Sidon, where at least four people were reported killed.
Verified ‘War’ Events in Lebanon, 14 – 17 March
Verified ‘War’ Events in Lebanon since the onset of conflict
Source: Seerist Verified Events, Control Risks Analysis, DiscoverAI
DiscoverAI: Escalating Rocket Attacks from Hizbullah to Israel Operational Developments Israeli forces have expanded ground operations in southern Lebanon, advancing into Lebanese territory and targeting Hizbullah rocket launchers and infrastructure. [2][3][20] Israeli airstrikes have damaged civilian infrastructure in Lebanon, including hospitals and residential buildings, contributing to significant civilian casualties and displacement. [21][22][23][24][25] Israel has targeted civilian trucks suspected of transporting Hizbullah arms, disrupting supply lines and causing economic hardship in southern Lebanon. [25] Outcome Impact Assessment Israeli ground and air operations have degraded Hizbullah's rocket capabilities but have not halted rocket fire into Israel, indicating ongoing conflict persistence. [3][5][11] The displacement of over one million Lebanese civilians and destruction of infrastructure have created a severe humanitarian crisis in Lebanon. [27][28] The elimination of key Iranian leaders has escalated the conflict, provoking retaliatory attacks and complicating prospects for negotiation or ceasefire. [16][17][18][19][39] What to Watch For Potential expansion of Israeli ground operations in Lebanon beyond current limited incursions, possibly including broader territorial control or prolonged presence. [5][10][20] Iranian and proxy retaliatory attacks targeting Israel, Gulf states, and U.S. interests, including missile and drone strikes, with risk of escalation. [12][13][14][39] Further targeting of Iranian leadership and infrastructure by Israeli and U.S. forces, and Iran's internal political response to leadership losses. [15][16][18][19][36]
Analyst’s Note Over the past three days, the conflict in Lebanon remained intense, characterized by a relentless campaign of Israeli airstrikes, artillery shelling, and drone strikes across the country. The military activity is heavily concentrated in the southern governorates of Nabatieh and South Lebanon, while simultaneously maintaining a severe bombardment of the Mount Lebanon governorate, specifically targeting Beirut's southern suburbs (Dahiyeh) such as Haret Hreik, Burj El Brajneh, and the Jamous neighborhood. International peacekeepers have also been caught in the crossfire. On March 15, patrols belonging to the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) came under gunfire from unidentified attackers in three separate incidents in Qalaouiye, Deir Kifa, and Yater. No UNIFIL casualties were reported in these specific incidents.
Sectors targeted since onset of conflict
Zooming In: Impacts to Israel
Analyst’s Note Over the last three days, Israel continued to face daily Iranian missile barrages predominantly targeting the densely populated Tel Aviv and Central districts. However, when viewed in the context of the broader conflict that began on February 28, the nature of the impacts has shifted. While the threat remains constant, the lethality has decreased, with the primary hazard transitioning from direct missile impacts to injuries and property damage caused by debris falling from successful interceptions. Because Israeli air defenses are reportedly intercepting the vast majority of incoming Iranian projectiles, the primary impact on the ground has been large amounts of shrapnel and debris falling on urban areas. Over the last three days, intercepted debris has fallen on Holon, Or Yehuda, Ness Ziona, Lod, and Tel Aviv city, frequently causing widespread disruption and infrastructure damage The tactical impact of Hizbullah's campaign over the duration of the conflict has functioned primarily as localized harassment. By consistently launching sporadic drones and rockets, they are forcing northern Israeli communities into shelters and flexing Israel's air defense resources. Attacks originating from Lebanon have almost exclusively targeted Israel's Northern District and Haifa District . The strikes have been concentrated in areas such as the Galilee region, towns near the Lebanese border, and the city of Haifa.
Source: Seerist Verified Events
Verified ‘War’ Events in Israel since the onset of conflict
Asset types targeted in Israel since onset of conflict
Composition of attack types
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Middle East: The Last 3 Days
Control Risks Analysis’ - Hostilities continue across the region Hostilities across the region continued on 12 March as Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian outlined three conditions from Iran to end the war. The announcement came as Iran struck two oil tankers near al-Faw port in Iraq overnight on 11-12 March, prompting the suspension of operations at two Basra oil export terminals. Gulf Arab states and Israel continued to intercept the majority or all Iranian projectiles late on 11 March and overnight into 12 March. Comments on 11 March by the spokesman of Iran’s unified command and control body threatening US- and Israel-linked “economic interests” should be considered credible even though intended for a domestic audience. The conflict is likely to remain in its current phase of attritional, multi-theatre hostilities for the coming week at minimum.
Posted 13 March 2026
Verified ‘War’ Events in the Middle East, 11 – 13 March
Outlook The three conditions Pezeshkian outlined are: recognition of Tehran’s nuclear rights, payment of war reparations and firm international guarantees against future aggression. Pezeshkian’s conditions are unlikely to be taken seriously by the US or Israel. Although a prominent advisor to the UAE president, Anwar Gargash, has intimated that a diplomatic breakthrough between Iran and the Gulf Arab states may be imminent, any potential pause or cessation of hostilities is unlikely to be agreed on the basis of Pezeshkian’s stated conditions. US President Donald Trump’s messaging on ending the war has been mixed: in an interview with Axios on 11 March, he said the war would end “soon” as there was “practically nothing left to target” but later told reporters at the White House that the US was “not finished yet”. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz on the same day said that the operation would continue without any time limit until all objectives were achieved, pointing to a disconnect between Washington and Israel on the war’s timeline. Ebrahim Zolfaghari, spokesman for Khatam al-Anbiya (the unified command and control center for Iran’s military, which is influenced by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), reportedly told Iranian domestic press outlets on 11 March that US and Israeli “economic interests and banks” in the Middle East region were at risk of targeting. Although intended for a local audience, Zolfaghari’s comment should be seen as credible. The conflict is likely to remain in its current phase of attritional, multi-theatre hostilities for the coming week at minimum.
Source: Seerist Verified Events and Control Risks’ Analysis
Two Week Review: Analyzing Higher Confidence Conflict Data
Analyst’s Notes Airstrikes account for 49.1% of all attack types, with military drone operations (17.6%) and missile/rocket fire (10.9%) comprising the bulk of the remainder. This air-dominant profile is consistent with a campaign designed to suppress Iranian air defenses and degrade military capacity. 766 events, nearly half the total, were recorded in Lebanon, driven by continued Israel Defense Forces-Hizbullah clashes. The Baalbek-Hermel governorate remains the primary hotspot, with a higher severity event on 7 March killing 41 people in Nabi Chit. Lebanese activity volume highlights Israel’s sustained suppression campaign running in parallel with the Iran strikes. The geographic overlap between proxy-active countries and US military basing (Bahrain NAVCENT, Kuwait Camp Arifjan, Iraq Erbil/Baghdad) is not coincidental. Iranian proxy doctrine treats US forward presence as a valid target in the conflict.
Heatmap of Verified ‘War’ Events from 28 February to 13 March
Verified ‘War’ Events in the Middle East by country from 28 February to 13 March
Asset Types Targeted, 28 February – 13 March
Sectors Targeted, 28 February – 13 March
Attack Type, 28 February – 13 March
Executive Summary The conflict between Israel and Hizbullah has entered a phase of attritional, multi-theatre hostilities, with Israeli airstrikes on March 12, 2026, targeting Beirut's coastline and southern regions while the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported intercepting all incoming ballistic missiles. [1][2] Israeli leadership formalized a shift toward a long-term engagement on March 11, 2026, as Defense Minister Israel Katz announced the military operation would continue without a time limit, while army commanders warned on March 12, 2026, that the war "will not be short." [1][3] The humanitarian crisis intensified on March 12, 2026, with displacement figures reaching between 816,000 and one million people following IDF orders for residents to evacuate 40km away from the border to areas north of the Zahrani river. [1][4][5]
Verified ‘War’ Events in Lebanon, 8 – 10 March
Verified ‘War’ Events in Lebanon, 11 – 13 March
Operational Developments An Israeli drone strike on a car at the Ramlet al-Baida seafront in Beirut killed eight people and wounded 31 on March 12, 2026, according to analyst reporting from that day. [1] Israeli airstrikes targeted several towns in Nabatieh and the southern suburbs of Beirut throughout March 12, 2026, while the IDF reported reinforced northern border positions in preparation for a "potentially prolonged engagement," news sources describe. [2][9] The Iranian army claimed on March 12, 2026, to have attacked Israel's military intelligence headquarters and a naval base in Haifa, though non-Iranian sources have not confirmed these hits, according to analyst reporting. [1] Diplomatic and Political Strains Lebanese President Joseph Aoun accused Hizbullah of endangering the 'collapse' of the state on March 12, as the government attempts to form a comprehensive negotiation delegation to seek de-escalation via the US and EU. [2][12][14] Ongoing hostilities forced the postponement of parliamentary elections in Beirut as of March 12, according to news sourcing. [17]
Analyst's Note As shown on left, the volume of Verified ‘War’ Events in Lebanon since the onset of conflict has remained steady. Maps above highlight the consistent focus over time on the southern suburbs of Beirut and areas south of the Litani River.
What to Watch For Analysts warn in March 2026 that an Israeli ground invasion remains a credible risk as the IDF intensifies strikes north of the Litani River and continues to mobilize for a prolonged confrontation. [15][20][21] The March 30, 2026, planned nationwide protests in neighboring Morocco may serve as a barometer for regional anti-Israel sentiment and solidarity with the Lebanese front, March 2026 analyst reports suggest. [22]
Exploring Unrest Landscape Specific to Iran- Middle East Conflict
Overview Governments in North America and Europe are expected to employ security measures similar to those used during the Israel-Hamas conflict, increasing protection around diplomatic sites. Stricter protest controls enacted since 2023 in countries like the UK, France, Germany, and the US are expected to help manage demonstrations more efficiently. However, authorities' responses may spark further protests if perceived as limiting free speech.
Insight: In the US, protests against the Iran conflict occurred in major cities like New York, Washington D.C., and Los Angeles, organized by left-wing groups and attracting hundreds of participants.
Source: Seerist, AskAnna NLQ output, Control Risks’ Analysis
News & Social Protest and Unrest Monitor in the United States over the Past 30 Days
News & Social Protest and Unrest Monitor in Europe & CIS over the Past 30 Days
Insight: Across Europe, protests erupted both in support of and opposition to the Iranian regime following US and Israeli strikes. In the UK, hundreds of pro-regime activists gathered in London, while anti-regime demonstrations took place in areas with large Jewish populations. Celebratory gatherings and anti-regime protests also occurred in Berlin, Madrid, and Stockholm. While immediate protests were largely peaceful, there is an increased likelihood of civil unrest and clashes with law enforcement if the conflict continues, particularly from left-wing or pro-Iranian regime groups.
Control Risks’ Analysis on Diaspora Mobilization
Insight: Muslim-majority countries, countries with high numbers of Iranian diaspora and Western countries with established anti-war movements, such as the UK, Germany and the US, will remain hotspots for future protests both in support of and opposition to US and Israeli actions. Businesses associated with Western interests in the Middle East, North Africa and Asia will face elevated risks of unrest. Although most actions will take the form of peaceful protests and marches, smaller radical activist campaigns increase the risk of direct action. Mirroring pro-Palestinian actions since October 2023, companies perceived to support the Israeli or, in this case, US military will face elevated activist scrutiny, and therefore higher risks of direct action, as seen in the UK in recent years. Some existing anti-war movements will gain traction.
Mining of Strait of Hormuz remains unconfirmed; confirmed mining would significantly prolong shipping disruption
Control Risks Analysis Posted: Mar 11, 2026
Countries: Bahrain,Iran,Iraq,Israel,Kuwait,Qatar,Saudi Arabia,United Arab Emirates,United States Risk Tags: Maritime, Security, Operational, War (maritime), War US Central Command (CENTCOM) on 10 March announced that it had destroyed 16 alleged Iranian mine-laying vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. Anonymously sourced reporting in US media outlets claimed that Iran is laying sea mines. The anonymously sourced commentary in US media does not constitute clear evidence that Iran is planning to or has already released mines around the Strait of Hormuz, but the threat is credible. Iran’s intent to lay sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz is likely to increase as the conflict continues, particularly in retaliation for damage to its energy infrastructure. Mines would pose an indiscriminate and lingering threat to all shipping, including that serving Iran. If mine-laying is confirmed, it would almost certainly delay resumed Hormuz transits under naval escort, likely by several weeks. US statements The CENTCOM announcement, with accompanying footage of US air strikes on the alleged vessels, followed two Truth Social posts from US President Donald Trump. The first post warned that “If Iran has put any mines in the Hormuz Strait, and we have no reports of them doing so, we want them removed, IMMEDIATELY”. He added that, if Tehran removes “what may have been placed, it will be a giant step in the right direction”. In a follow-up post, Trump announced US strikes on ten “inactive mine laying boats and/or ships”, lower than the later CENTCOM figure of 16. Earlier in the day, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine told a press conference that the US is also targeting mine storage facilities. The precise number of Iranian sea mines is unknown, but reported pre-conflict estimates were in the thousands. Multiple US news outlets on 10 March, citing unnamed sources, reported that Iranian forces had operated from small craft to plant a small number of mines in recent days. No confirmation but credible threat Anonymously sourced commentary in US media outlets does not constitute clear evidence that Iran is planning to or has already released mines around the Strait of Hormuz, but the threat is credible. Mines would pose an indiscriminate threat to shipping, including those vessels that serve Iran and continue to transit the Strait, as well as to all Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) supply chains that rely on Gulf ports. The Strait is shallow enough for sea mine planting to be effective. Despite the US strikes on alleged mine-laying vessels and storage facilities, Iran highly likely retains both a substantial quantity of sea mines of various types and the means to deploy them surreptitiously in shipping channels. These include Ghadir-class mini-submarines, mine-laying vessels, retrofitted dhows and speedboats, each loaded with a small number of mines. Attacks on shipping continue Separately, Iranian attacks against shipping continue. On 11 March, at least three vessels were attacked with unspecified weapons: the bulk carrier Mayuree Naree while eastbound in the Strait; the containership One Majesty while anchored approximately 60 nautical miles south-west of the Strait; and bulk carrier Star Gwyneth as it sailed in the Middle East Gulf. Outlook: sea mining scenarios We assess that Iran’s intent to lay sea mines is likely to increase as the conflict continues, and as its stocks of ballistic missiles and armed drones are depleted. In addition, US and Israeli attacks on Iran’s energy production and export infrastructure, such as oil fields, storage facilities and terminals, would increase its intent to retaliate by mining the Strait. Sea mining would represent a major escalation by Iran and indicate that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – or at least elements within it – seeks to force an end to the conflict. Confirmation: Sea mine laying could be proved by confirmed mine contact incidents in the Strait (distinct from strikes by missiles or drones), verified visual or satellite imagery of mine-laying activities, or mine sighting reports from crews relayed to regional maritime reporting bodies. Definitive statements by the US or Iran that mines have been laid – even in the absence of confirmed incidents – would also be sufficient to deter shipping and trigger response measures. The suggestion that mines have been placed – irrespective of how many – will now be an additional factor in the decision-making of ship owners and operators considering transiting the Gulf under any prospective naval escort as the mines are an indiscriminate threat. There is little that can be done to reduce the catastrophic impact to hull and cargo from a mine strike. Shipping implications: Sea mines would deter shipping and further delay the beginning of any gradual reopening of the Strait to commercial traffic by at least one-to-two weeks and likely longer. Any shortening of this time frame would depend on factors such as that the number of planted mines is low, their precise location is broadly known, and the US and allied forces can immediately deploy mine clearance capability with the narrow aim of establishing a transit corridor rather than attempting to completely eradicate the presence of mines. The mine-clearing operations would likely need to be maintained indefinitely alongside active defence against repeated Iranian mine-laying. Only when US and allied forces assess that the mine risk had been countered would they likely begin the process of escorting vessel convoys out of and, later, into the Gulf. Given lingering mine risks, convoys would likely be restricted to daylight hours initially, limiting overall transit. US and allied mine counter-measure (MCM) assets, comprising mine-clearing vessels and helicopters, are highly limited and not currently positioned to respond immediately. The UK and US together had four mine-hunting vessels based permanently in the Gulf, but all were recently relocated and/or decommissioned. There are other possible sources, such as from among the 47 nations that are part of the Combined Maritime Forces coalition, but states may be reluctant to redeploy assets and place them in the middle of active hostilities with Iran. Sources: @CENTCOM, X “Iran begins laying mines in Strait of Hormuz, sources say”, CNN “Iran signaling it may deploy mines to disrupt Strait of Hormuz, U.S. sources say”, CBS News Control Risks’ maritime incident database
Middle East: Status of the Conflict
Big Picture series: A war of stockpiles – Iran’s missiles and drones vs. regional interceptors The scale and pace of Iranian missile and drone launches suggest the conflict will remain defined by Iranian attacks aimed at overwhelming air defense systems and imposing economic and logistical costs on defenders. Iran’s remaining missiles combined with its large drone inventories mean it can likely sustain high intensity strikes for at least several more weeks. Sustained saturation attacks by Iran would likely begin to strain the US, Israel and their regional allies’ defensive munition inventories within three to four weeks at current launch rates. The trajectory of the conflict will largely depend on whether US, Israeli and regional air defenses can maintain sufficient interceptor stocks, as well as Iran’s capability to maintain the pace of its attacks. Source: Control Risks’ Analysis
10-day Update Posted 10 March 2026
(6 – 9 March) Verified ‘War’ Events in the Middle East Region
Escalating US-Israel-Iran Conflict Operational Developments The IDF announced on March 5, 2026, that it had destroyed 300 Iranian missile launchers since the start of the conflict, an effort to slow the campaign as Iran's remaining missile stocks diminish. [1][12] Iranian drone production capacity is believed to allow for the manufacture of thousands of units annually, potentially allowing the drone-led phase of the conflict to persist for months, March 2026 assessments indicate. [1] US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed on March 4, 2026, that additional bombers and precision-guided munitions were arriving in the region to intensify strikes against Iranian launch and manufacturing sites. [13] Global Defense Resource Strain The intense consumption of air defense munitions in the Middle East is jeopardizing the supply of American weapons to European nations and Ukraine, March 2026 news reports warn. [7][14][15] Western officials noted a sharp decline in Iranian missile and drone launches by March 6, 2026, which may suggest that Iran is also facing difficulties in sustaining its high operational tempo. [16] One former US official stated on March 3, 2026, that "several years' worth of interceptor production" may have been consumed in just the first few days of the regional escalation. [9]
Sectors Targeted
Attack Type
Verified ‘War’ Events since onset of conflict on 28 February
What to Watch For Monitor for the possible transfer of additional interceptor systems from European or other allied states to bolster strained regional defenses, March 2026 assessments suggest. [1][13] Watch for a mismatch between Iranian political rhetoric and military action following President Pezeshkian's March 7 apology, as IRGC operations may continue independently of the executive branch. [17] Note any expansion of targeting to include civilian economic infrastructure, which March 2026 scenarios indicate would signal a broadening of the conflict beyond military assets. [17][20]
Source: DiscoverAI Situation Report
Interrogating Conflict Data Over Time
Analyst’s Note The conflict opened with unprecedented Iranian waves of hundreds of ballistic missiles and suicide drones simultaneously targeting US military installations, airports, and commercial infrastructure across the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Israel. US and Israeli operations have transitioned into a highly lethal, sustained campaign to dismantle military leadership and operational capacity. In Iran, precision strikes are systematically decapitating the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), destroying its Air Force and Space Force headquarters, killing supreme leader officials, and wiping out military aviation fleets. They are also dismantling Iran's energy and aviation logistics, repeatedly striking oil depots in Tehran and Qeshm, and destroying parked military aircraft at Mehrabad airport. In Lebanon, Israel has expanded its campaign to aggressively dismantle Hezbollah’s financial network by bombing multiple Qard Al-Hassan bank branches, while relentless widespread bombardments continue to result in mass civilian casualties.
Start of Conflict (28 Feb 2026)
Previous 48-Hour Period (7-8 Mar 2026)
Verified ‘War’ Events in the Middle East
How is the conflict changing over time? The conflict is not slowing down; rather, it has matured from a chaotic regional shootout into a systematic air campaign. The change in the conflict is marked by Iran's inability or unwillingness to maintain the larger missile barrages seen on 28 February. Instead, Iran and its proxies have downshifted to asymmetric warfare, using daily drone swarms to harass Israel, Iraq, and the Gulf States. Conversely, the US and Israel have increased the precision and severity of attacks. They have moved past retaliatory posturing and are actively attempting to decapitate Iranian military leadership (IRGC), wipe out Hizbullah's fighting force and finances in Lebanon, and cripple Iran's domestic military-industrial complex.
Escalating Violence and Casualties in Southern Lebanon Executive Summary The Israel-Hezbollah conflict has intensified over the past ten days, with Israel conducting extensive airstrikes in southern Lebanon, Beirut, and eastern Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah infrastructure and Iranian-linked military sites. [1][2][3][4][5] Hezbollah has actively engaged Israeli forces, repelling multiple helicopter-borne incursions near Nabi Sheet in eastern Lebanon and exchanging fire along the Israeli-Lebanese border. [6][7][8][9][10] Israeli strikes have resulted in significant civilian casualties in Lebanon, with at least 394 deaths reported, including 83 children and 42 women, and over 1,130 injured, causing widespread displacement of over 100,000 people. [1][3][11][12][13] Threat Analysis Hezbollah continues to launch targeted attacks against Israeli military positions near the border, including missile strikes on Israeli military gatherings and artillery fire on Israeli soldiers in border towns. [14][15] Iran remains a key actor, with Israel striking over 400 Iranian military targets in central and western Iran, including ballistic missile launchers and weapons production facilities, escalating the regional conflict. [4][5][11] The use of white phosphorus by Israeli forces in populated areas of southern Lebanon has been documented and condemned by Human Rights Watch, raising concerns about violations of international humanitarian law and potential for increased civilian harm. [16][17][18][19][20]
(7 – 9 March) Verified ‘War’ Events in Lebanon & Northern Israel
Operational Developments Israeli forces have conducted multiple helicopter raids in eastern Lebanon, particularly near Nabi Sheet, with Hezbollah claiming to have shot down at least one Israeli helicopter during these incursions. [6][7][8][9][21] Israel has ordered the evacuation of 400,000 residents south of the Litani River and in Beirut's Dahiya quarter, indicating preparation for intensified ground or aerial operations. [22] Israeli airstrikes have targeted Hezbollah infrastructure in Beirut's southern suburbs, including drone strikes that killed senior Iranian Revolutionary Guard Quds Force commanders. [3][12][23][24][25] What to Watch For Potential escalation of ground operations by Israeli forces in southern Lebanon following evacuation orders and ongoing helicopter raids. [21][22] Further Hezbollah retaliatory attacks along the Israeli border and possible expansion of missile and rocket fire into northern Israel. [14][15] Additional Israeli strikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure in Iran and Lebanon, possibly increasing regional tensions and drawing in other state and non-state actors. [4][5][11][29]
Lebanon’s PulseAI Stability Score over Past 60 Days
Israel reportedly struck several fuel storage depots on the outskirts of the Iranian capital Tehran on 7 March. The Israeli military in a statement claimed that Iran’s armed forces were using the facilities. The Tehran Refinery – a major refinery serving the capital and northern Iran – is adjacent to one of the fuel storage facilities that was struck and appears not to have been targeted. Iranian authorities claimed that the US on 7 March targeted a water desalination plant on Qeshm Island in southern Iran, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warning that this set a “precedent”. Iran subsequently on 8 March carried out a drone attack on a water desalination plant in Bahrain. Bahrain’s electricity and water authority said that the strike had not affected the country’s water supply. The UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar all reported further Iranian missile and drone attacks on 7-8 March. Most missiles and drones were intercepted. THREAT ANALYSIS The US targeting of a desalination plant in southern Iran and Iran’s apparent retaliation against a water desalination plant in Bahrain fall outside the targeting pattern of the past eight days. During this period, US/Israeli strikes focused predominantly on Iranian political, regime and military targets, while Iran’s retaliation against Gulf Arab states centred mainly on US and national military bases and critical energy and aviation infrastructure. Further, more systemic reciprocal attacks targeting critical civilian infrastructure, such as power or water desalination plants, would indicate that the conflict dynamics are escalating towards our credible alternative scenario. We will monitor this closely over the coming days. Iran’s continued retaliation against targets in the Gulf Arab states came despite Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on 7 March declaring that Iran would cease targeting neighboring countries. Although Pezeshkian subsequently qualified his position, this points to potential fissures in the Iranian regime.
SEERIST SNIPPET
EventsAI
WHAT TO WATCH Further systematic expansion of reciprocal strikes against critical civilian infrastructure such as power grids and large-scale desalination plants. Implementation of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s March 8, 2026, promise of 'many surprises' as the conflict enters its next phase.
News and social events heatmapped across the Middle East from the last 48 hours. Key infrastructure locations reportedly targeted: Bahrain’s water desalination plant Qeshm Island, reported location of water desalination plant that Iranian officials claim US and Israel targeted Fuel storage near the Tehran Refinery
DiscoverAI / Control Risks Analysis, 8 Mar 2026
Iran-Israel-US: Conflict Update & Outlook
Strikes to continue; Iranian retaliation to remain focused on US military bases, regional energy infrastructure: Daily regional update Outlook: Most likely scenario for the coming ten days is that the US/Israel and Iran continue to engage in multiple rounds of reciprocal attacks. Under this scenario, US/Israeli strikes may increase in scope and intensity but will remain predominantly focused on Iranian political, regime and military targets, and will not expand to large-scale attacks on Iran’s critical economic and civilian infrastructure. Correspondingly, Iran’s retaliation will focus on US and national military bases in the Gulf Arab region and assets at sea, regional energy infrastructure, and on disrupting shipping across the region, aiming to ratchet up the political and economic costs of the war for US President Donald Trump. A credible alternative scenario could see the US and Israel broaden their targeting to systematically attacking critical, economic and civilian infrastructure in Iran. Under this scenario, Iran could reciprocate by also broadening its targeting beyond US military bases and energy infrastructure in the Gulf to critical civilian infrastructure and civilian targets linked to the US and Israel. An outlier scenario would see the military confrontation cease or significantly de-escalate, possibly due to a resumption of negotiations, a major change in Iran’s domestic political stability, or due to a conclusive military defeat of Iran. However, we do not regard any of these conditions as likely to materialize in the coming ten days.
Posted 06 March 2026
Verified ‘War’ Events in the Middle East Region (28 Feb – 5 Mar)
Developments over 5-6 March: IDF announcements: On 5 March, Israel Defense Forces’ (IDF) Chief of Staff Lt-Gen Eyal Zamir announced that the US and Israeli campaign was moving to the “next phase of operations” that would “further dismantle the regime and its military capabilities”. Zamir stated the US/Israeli campaign had so far destroyed more than 60% of Iran’s ballistic missile launchers and 80% of its air defense systems. IDF strikes Lebanon: Israel continued to strike sites throughout Lebanon that it claims are linked to the Shia movement Hizbullah. The strikes are primarily on southern Lebanon but have also taken place in northern provinces (such as Baalbek) and the Hizbullah-dominated southern suburbs of the capital Beirut, also known as Dahiyeh. The IDF on 5 March issued evacuation warnings for Dahiyeh and provinces south of the Litani River. Azerbaijan hit: On 5 March, Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs claimed that two drones originating from Iranian territory hit Azerbaijan. One reportedly struck the terminal building of the airport in the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic; another fell near a school building in the village of Shakarabad. Iran denied involvement. Bahrain commercial and civilian infrastructure hit: On 5 March, at least one ballistic missile struck the Ma’ameer Industrial Area, causing several fires at Bahrain Petroleum’s Company’s (BAPCO) main refinery. On 6 March, Bahrain’s Interior Ministry claimed Iran had “targeted a hotel and two residential buildings in Manama, with no loss of life”. US Embassy activity suspended in Kuwait: On 5 March, the State Department announced that it was suspending operations at its embassy in Kuwait City. Qatar issues security warning: On 6 March at 3:43 (local time), the Qatari National Emergency Alert System issued an “elevated” security warning. The warning ended at 6:09 (local time) after Qatar’s Ministry of Defense announced it had intercepted a drone targeting the US’ al-Udeid Airbase.
Trends Per Day of Verified ‘War’ Events Across the Middle East, Cyprus, Turkiye, and Azerbaijan, (28 Feb – 5 Mar)
Source: Seerist Verified Events, Control Risks Analysis, 6 March 2026
Zooming In: Israeli Military Operations in Lebanon
Analyst’s Note: Beirut is currently experiencing significant security risks due to intense Israeli airstrikes targeting Hizbullah infrastructure in the southern suburbs, a densely populated area identified as a stronghold for the militant group. These attacks, which have caused building collapses and prompted evacuation orders for approximately 500,000 residents, are the most severe since a late 2024 ceasefire. Approximately 84% of strikes continue to be concentrated in the South and Nabatieh governorates. However, on 5 March, Israeli security forces targeted a senior Hamas leader in Tripoli, the first time the North governorate has been struck since 5 October 2024, another assassination targeting Hamas leadership.
Verified ‘War’ Events in Lebanon since the outbreak of the 2026 Iran-Israel-US conflict
Source: Seerist, AskAnna NLQ Output
What to Watch: Israel has not expanded its strikes beyond the suburbs of Beirut into the city itself. Targeting within Beirut would constitute potential escalation. Hizbullah reports heavy clashes between Israeli soldiers and Hizbullah militants along the border as Israel reengaged its ground operations in Lebanon on 3 March. Significant casualties on the Israeli side could trigger further escalation. The Lebanese government has banned all Hizbullah military activity, as well as Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) activity within Lebanon, prompting arrest campaigns.
Verified Hizbullah Targeting of Israeli Soldiers in Southern Lebanon (3 – 5 Mar)
Trends Per Day of Verified ‘War’ Events in Lebanon, (27 Feb – 5 Mar)
Iraq: Iran-backed Paramilitary Groups in the Kurdistan Region
Brief Analysis: Reported deployments by Iran’s IRGC along the Iran-Kurdistan Region (KR) border indicate a high likelihood of further cross-border drone, missile and artillery strikes against Iranian Kurdish opposition group positions. A mobilization by the US of KR-based Iranian Kurdish opposition groups as ground forces inside Iran would likely trigger an intensification of retaliatory strikes by Iran and Iran-backed paramilitary groups (IBPGs), and broaden their target set to include Kurdish security forces and infrastructure. The scale and frequency of interceptions indicate sustained aerial activity across Erbil’s airspace, particularly around sites associated with US diplomatic or military presence, as well as locations linked to Iranian Kurdish opposition groups based in northern Iraq. Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein stated on 2 March that more than 70 missiles and drones had targeted Erbil since the outbreak of direct hostilities between the US-Israel coalition and Iran on 28 February. Multiple explosive-laden drones were intercepted near the US Consulate in Erbil (city) and Erbil International Airport (EIA). As the KR hosts the remaining US military presence in Iraq, IBPGs will continue to prioritize attacks against these assets. Iran and IBPGs will likely intensify drone and rocket attacks targeting US military bases in the KR and facilities linked to Iranian Kurdish opposition groups.
Source: Seerist Verified Events, Control Risks Analysis, 5 March 2026
Iranian Strikes Across the Gulf: Targeted Countries and Sectors
Trends Per Day of Verified ‘War’ Events in the Gulf Region
Source: Seerist
Kuwait
Saudi Arabia
Oman
United Arab Emirates
Bahrain
Qatar
War Events in the Gulf region by Sector (28 Feb – 2 Mar)
War Events in the Gulf region by Sector (3 – 5 Mar)
Global Protests Against US-Israeli Actions in Iran, 5 Mar 2026
Executive Summary - Link to DiscoverAI Report in Seerist The assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by US and Israeli strikes on March 1, 2026, has triggered widespread protests and counter-protests globally, highlighting deep divisions over the conflict. [1][2][3*][4*][5*] Massive pro-government rallies in Iran demonstrate strong internal support for the regime amid ongoing military escalation and calls for retaliation. [6*][7*][8*][9*][10*] Significant anti-US and anti-Israel protests have occurred worldwide, including in the US, Europe, and South Asia, with demonstrators condemning military actions and calling for an end to foreign intervention in Iran. [11][12][13][14][15] Threat Analysis The assassination of Khamenei and subsequent military strikes have intensified regional instability, increasing the risk of retaliatory attacks and broader conflict escalation. [1][10*][16*] The presence of violent clashes between Iranian security forces and protesters in Tehran indicates potential for sustained internal unrest and repression. [16*][17*][18*] Polarized protests in Western cities, including confrontations between pro- and anti-Iranian regime groups, raise concerns about public order and potential for localized violence. [1][4*][19*][20*]
Posted 05 March 2026 Seerist DiscoverAI Report
Operational Developments US and Israeli forces conducted targeted airstrikes resulting in the death of Iran's Supreme Leader, marking a significant escalation in military operations. [1][2][3*] Iranian security forces have responded to domestic protests with live ammunition and crackdowns, particularly in Tehran, signaling a hardline approach to dissent. [16*][17*][18*] Protests and counter-protests have been managed by police in multiple international cities, including Manchester and Washington, D.C., to prevent clashes. [1][4*][19*][21][22] Global Protest Dynamics Protests against US and Israeli military actions have spread to over 50 cities worldwide, including major demonstrations in the US, Europe, India, Venezuela, and the Middle East. [23*] In Western countries, Iranian diaspora communities are divided, with some supporting the regime and others advocating for opposition figures like Reza Pahlavi, leading to factional tensions. [1][4*][20*][24*][25*] Anti-war protests in the US have drawn thousands, with significant participation in cities such as Chicago, Boston, New York, and Portland, reflecting domestic opposition to the Trump administration's policies. [13][26][27]
Regional and Diaspora Responses In Indian-administered Kashmir, large protests have erupted condemning the assassination of Khamenei, reflecting strong regional solidarity with Iran. [28*][29*][30*][31*][32*] Iranian diaspora protests have occurred in Italy, Spain, and Lithuania, with calls to end US and Israeli attacks and criticism of local governments' stances. [33*][34*][35*][36*] Internal divisions within diaspora communities, such as in Milan and Rome, highlight differing perspectives on Iran's political future and responses to the conflict. [20*][24*][25*] Outcome Impact Assessment The assassination of Khamenei and subsequent military actions have galvanized both pro-regime and opposition forces within Iran, intensifying domestic unrest and political polarization. [6*][7*][10*][17*][37*] Global protests indicate widespread international opposition to US and Israeli military strategies, potentially complicating diplomatic efforts and increasing geopolitical tensions. [23*][35*][38*] The US faces significant domestic political division over Iran policy, with protests and calls for legislative oversight reflecting challenges to the Trump administration's approach. [13][21][22][27] What to Watch For Potential retaliatory attacks by Iran or allied groups against US, Israeli, or regional targets following the assassination of Khamenei and airstrikes. [1][10*][16*] Escalation of internal unrest in Iran, including the possibility of intensified crackdowns or broader anti-government protests. [16*][17*][18*] Further polarization and possible violent confrontations between pro- and anti-Iranian regime groups in diaspora communities and Western cities. [1][4*][19*][20*]
Heatmap of Verified ‘Unrest’ Events related to the conflict, 28 February to 4 March 2026
Verified ‘Unrest’ Events related to the conflict, highlighting a peak in events the day after the onset of conflict on 28 February
Impact of Global Unrest Related to the Iran Conflict
Protests are likely in the coming weeks, triggered by significant developments associated with the Iran-Israel-US conflict. Although widespread protracted unrest remains unlikely. Demonstrations will likely be well attended in major cities, especially in Muslim-majority countries; in Western countries with established anti-war movements and countries with a large Iranian diaspora. They will likely be concentrated near national government buildings; US, Israeli and Iranian diplomatic locations and commercial businesses linked to Western interests. Celebratory events, including in Iran, could face an increased risk of clashes due to the presence of pro-regime supporters. Although businesses are unlikely to be a direct target for protests, brands perceived to be closely associated with the US and Israel will likely face elevated risk of direct action. (Control Risks Analysis)
New supreme leader likely to be selected, announced in coming days to sustain perception of continuity
Countries: Iran Risk Tags: Security, Political, War, Political Stability Members of the Assembly of Experts on 4 March said that they are “close to selecting” a new leader and will do so “at the earliest opportunity”. The process to select the next supreme leader, which started following the killing of Ali Khamenei (1989-2026) by US-Israeli strikes on 28February, is likely to conclude in the coming days. Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the late Ali Khamenei, is the reported frontrunner, backed by strong ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps(IRGC) and seen as a hardline continuity candidate. The timing of the announcement is likely to be shaped by security risks, however, as Israel and the US will continue to threaten the assassination of whomever will be appointed. The process The permanent successor to the supreme leader is selected by the Assembly of Experts, an 88-member clerical assembly elected by voters (after vetting by the Guardian Council). Under Article 111 of the constitution, the Assembly is mandated to convene immediately upon the death of a supreme leader and to deliberate until a qualified senior cleric is selected to replace them. The Assembly has been deliberating since Ali Khamenei’s death on 28 February, reportedly through virtual sessions amid war conditions due to the ongoing air strikes by the US and Israel. Security protocols have been significantly heightened, with members dispersed across undisclosed locationsdue to fears of targeted assassinations. At least two Assembly meeting sites have reportedly been hit by US-Israeli strikes, underscoring the volatilitysurrounding the transition and the unprecedented nature of selecting a leader during active external conflict. Some senior clerics on 4 March indicated that consensus has narrowed to a very small shortlist, suggesting that the internal debate phase is largely complete. However, the public announcement is likely to be impacted by the threat posed by the US and Israel. Israel’s Defence Minister Israel Katzon 4 March stated that whoever Iran picks to be the country’s next supreme leader will be “a target for elimination”. This external pressure is likely to influence not only the timing of the announcement but also security arrangements surrounding the successor’s public emergence. The contenders The most widely reported frontrunner is Mojtaba, the 56-year-old son of the late Ali Khamenei. Internal discussions and regional reporting indicate the Assembly has either chosen or is on the verge of choosing him as supreme leader; however, this has not been confirmed by Control Risks’ sources. Mojtaba is a mid-ranking cleric with longstanding influence behind the scenes and close ties to the IRGC. He was already considered one of the top three contenders as successor to his father. The main doubts on such an outcome were linked to Iran’s preference to avoid adopting hereditary rule, so as not to mirror the monarchical model replaced by the Islamic Republic in 1979. Nevertheless, proponents argue that Mojtaba’s deep institutional relationships, particularly within security and intelligence structures, make him a continuity candidate capable of preserving regime cohesion during wartime. Mojtaba is widely perceived as a hardliner and is supportive of Iran’s assertive regional posture and resistance doctrine towards the US and Israel. Other contenders include Alireza Arafi, a senior cleric who on 1 March was selected as a member of the interim leadership council, and SeyedHassan Khomeini, grandson of the Islamic Republic’s founder. These alternatives are widely perceived as more moderate than Mojtaba. Outlook Iran will likely announce the new supreme leader in the coming days to sustain the perception that it retains control and is overseeing a smooth transition despite the killing of its top leadership and the ongoing war with the US and Israel. The more rapid the announcement is, the greater the desire of the regime to project regime stability, deter perceptions of vulnerability, and reassure both domestic constituencies and regional allies. Sources: “Live updates: Iran moves to pick new supreme leader, Israel says he will be ‘a target for elimination’”, AP “Israel threatens to target any successor to Iran’s Supreme Leader”, Syrian Arab News Agency “Mojtaba Khamenei, son of former supreme leader, tipped to become Iran’s next head of state”, The Guardian Control Risks
Posted 04 March 2026 Control Risks Analysis
Iran-Israel-US: Conflict Update & Impact Analysis
Posted 04 March 2026
Escalating Iran-Israel Conflict and Regional Tensions: Last 24 Hours Executive Summary: Israel and the United States have conducted extensive airstrikes on Iranian missile launchers, nuclear facilities, and command centers, including a secret underground nuclear site near Tehran and the Natanz nuclear facility, significantly degrading Iran's military and nuclear capabilities. Iran has retaliated with missile and drone attacks targeting Israel, US embassies, consulates in Dubai and Riyadh, and critical infrastructure in the Gulf region, including Dubai and Abu Dhabi ports, causing casualties and fires but limited reported injuries. Furthermore, Israeli ground forces have entered southern Lebanon to counter Hizbullah, which has escalated rocket attacks on Israel and declared readiness for open war; Israel plans to establish a buffer zone in southern Lebanon to protect border communities and aims to disarm Hizbullah.
(28 Feb – 3 Mar) Verified ‘War’ Events in the Middle East Region
Economic & Civilian Impact The conflict has disrupted regional economic infrastructure, including oil markets with Brent crude prices exceeding $85 per barrel, and Iran has threatened further strikes on economic targets if US and Israeli operations continue. Civil infrastructure in Iran, including airports such as Bushehr and Mehrabad, has been targeted, with reports of destruction of a passenger aircraft, indicating escalation affecting civilian assets. The humanitarian situation in Lebanon is deteriorating with mass displacement and overwhelmed shelter facilities, necessitating urgent aid and support. What to Watch For Potential expansion of Israeli ground operations deeper into Lebanon aimed at disarming Hizbullah, which could intensify conflict and increase civilian displacement. Iran's use of more advanced weaponry, as it has stated it has not yet deployed its most sophisticated arms, which could escalate the conflict's lethality and reach. Responses from Gulf states, particularly the UAE and Saudi Arabia, including possible military actions against Iran, which could broaden the conflict.
(28 Feb – 3 Mar) Trends Per Day of Verified ‘War’ Events Across the Middle East
Source: Seerist, DiscoverAI Situation Report
Israel-Lebanon: Escalation of Conflict in 2026
Israeli Ground Operations in Southern Lebanon Over the last 72 hours, Israel's primary focus has been on ground operations in southern Lebanon. This includes ordering ground troops into the region to counter rocket attacks and create a buffer zone. Concurrently, Israel has expanded its ground incursion and conducted airstrikes on Hizbullah installations in Beirut, following the Lebanese government's ban on Hizbullah's military activities. These actions are supported by a majority of the Israeli public and are aimed at targeting Hizbullah's infrastructure.
Lebanon’s Pulse Stability Score & Trendline Over Last 60 Days
(28 Feb – 3 Mar) Verified ‘War’ Events in Lebanon
Israeli ground troops have been ordered into Lebanon to counter rocket attacks targeting communities near the Israeli border. This operation is supported by a significant portion of the Israeli public, with 73% viewing the military operation in the Middle East as necessary. There are internal concerns within Lebanon regarding Hizbullah's actions, with Lebanon's Justice Minister stating that no one in Lebanon can tolerate Hizbullah's adventures and that the group's cross-border activities put Lebanon at risk.
Note: PulseAI identifies anomalies in media reporting to compute daily micro-changes in risk & stability when compared to Control Risks’ baseline Risk Ratings
Breaking Events
'War’ Events by Attack Type
Zooming In: Comparison of 2023-24 War to Today’s 2026 Conflict
Analyst’s Note Israeli military action in Lebanon has sharply increased, including ground operations as well as intensified aerial operations, predominantly targeting Nabatieh and South governorates. Strikes concentrated on familiar Hizbullah targets, including media infrastructure, financial institutions, and leadership. Current patterns are consistent with the 2024 conflict. Hizbullah's capacity to conduct deep strikes into Israel remains degraded relative to its pre-ceasefire posture. A surge in Israeli military action in Beqaa and/or Baalbek-Hermel governorate, or the targeting of Beirut proper would signal meaningful escalation beyond current levels. Key Takeaways The primary difference between the 2023-2024 conflict and the current 2026 situation lies in the scope and drivers of the violence. The 2023-2024 war was a localized 14-month conflict of attrition between Israel and Hizbullah linked to the war in Gaza, which concluded with a ceasefire in November 2024. In contrast, the March 2026 escalation is a direct consequence of a broader regional war triggered by the February 28, 2026, assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. While the previous conflict saw the Lebanese Armed Forces expanding their presence in the south, March 2026 reports indicate that Israel is now moving into southern Lebanon.
Verified ‘War’ Events in Lebanon over the past 72 hours since the outbreak of the 2026 Iran-Israel-US conflict
Strikes in Lebanon over a comparable 72-hour window during the peak of the Israel-Hizbullah War (12-14 Nov 2024)
OVERVIEW Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to all shipping, threatening to attack any vessel attempting passage, significantly disrupting a critical global oil transit route. The closure and threats have caused a sharp decline in maritime traffic through the Strait, with entries dropping from 30 to as low as 1 vessel per day, effectively halting oil and LNG shipments through this chokepoint. Oil prices have surged globally, with Brent crude nearing or exceeding $80 per barrel, driven by fears of prolonged disruptions. THREAT ANALYSIS Iran has escalated military threats by warning it will set fire to any ship attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz and attack regional oil pipelines, raising the risk of direct conflict with U.S. and allied naval forces. Drone and missile attacks have targeted energy infrastructure in the region, including Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery, Oman's Duqm port, and LNG facilities in Qatar, increasing regional instability and risk to energy supply chains. Iran denies responsibility for some attacks, attributing blame to Israel, complicating attribution and regional tensions
DiscoverAI
REGIONAL & GEOPOLITICAL DYNAMICS Saudi Arabia seeks a mediator role and avoids direct conflict during Ramadan, while Iran continues attacks on regional infrastructure, escalating tensions between Iran, Israel, and the U.S. Russia views the conflict as a strategic opportunity to leverage energy market influence despite risks of Iranian instability, engaging with OPEC and diversifying military supply sources. WHAT TO WATCH FOR Potential escalation or de-escalation of military actions in the Middle East, particularly Iran's enforcement of the Strait closure and responses from U.S. and allied naval forces. Further attacks on regional energy infrastructure and shipping vessels that could prolong disruptions and exacerbate global energy market instability. Diplomatic efforts by regional and global powers, including China's pressure on Tehran and Saudi Arabia's mediator role.
The graph shows the ‘Emotions’ breakdown of EventsAI reports across social media and news channels having ‘Strait of Hormuz’ as a keyword over the past 7 days.
The graph shows the breakdown of EventsAI reports based on event-type having ‘SoH’ over the past 7 days. A spike in reports tagged with ‘Conflict’ and ‘Transportation’ event models coincides with the joint-combat operation by Israel and the US against Iran, and latter’s kinetic attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz from 28 February 2026 onwards.
OVERVIEW Iran has launched a series of drone and missile attacks targeting critical energy infrastructure and military bases across the Persian Gulf region, including Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE, and Israel. Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura oil refinery, the kingdom's largest with a capacity of 550,000 barrels per day, was struck by Iranian drones on March 2, 2026, resulting in a precautionary shutdown and a small fire that was quickly controlled. The refinery's shutdown has not impacted domestic oil supply but raises global supply concerns. THREAT ANALYSIS Iran's use of drones and missiles to target vital Gulf energy infrastructure and U.S. military bases marks a significant escalation in regional hostilities, increasing the risk of wider conflict involving Gulf states, the U.S., and Israel. Iran's attacks have extended beyond military targets to include civilian infrastructure and commercial shipping, as evidenced by missile debris causing a fatal fire on a foreign ship in Bahrain's port. The ongoing missile and drone strikes have caused casualties, including the first confirmed U.S. military deaths in the current conflict phase and civilian deaths in Bahrain, highlighting the human cost of the escalation. Regional Impact on Energy & Regional Security The attacks have disrupted maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil transit route, contributing to a surge in global oil prices. Saudi Arabia and neighboring Gulf states are likely to increase cooperation with U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran in response to the attacks on their energy infrastructure WHAT TO WATCH FOR Potential further Iranian drone and missile attacks targeting additional Gulf energy infrastructure and U.S. military bases, possibly expanding to other regional countries. Responses from Saudi Arabia and Gulf Cooperation Council states, including possible increased military cooperation with the U.S. and Israel against Iran. Impact on global oil markets due to sustained disruptions at key facilities like Ras Tanura and maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Verified ‘War’ Events targeting Oil & Gas sector facilities across the Middle East over the last 3 days.
DiscoverAI Situation Report
Verified Event
Posted 03 March 2026 Seerist DiscoverAI Report
Executive Summary - Link to DiscoverAI Report in Seerist The conflict initiated by U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran has rapidly expanded into a multi-front regional war involving Iran, Israel, Lebanon, and Gulf states. [1][2] Israeli forces have advanced into southern Lebanon, prompting Lebanese army withdrawal and UN evacuation orders for non-essential personnel. [1][3][4][5] Iran has suffered significant casualties, with the Iranian Red Crescent reporting approximately 787 deaths, including many civilians and children, amid widespread attacks on over 150 cities. [6][7][8][9][10]
Threat Analysis Iran's missile and drone attacks have targeted U.S. military bases, Israeli sites, and Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and the UAE, expanding the conflict zone. [2][11][12][13] Hezbollah has actively engaged by launching rockets and drones against Israeli targets from Lebanon, escalating the northern front. [1][2][14][15] Iran's ability to sustain its missile and drone supply is under scrutiny, with concerns about the longevity of its military resources amid ongoing hostilities. [12][16] Operational Developments Israel has conducted multiple airstrikes on key Iranian leadership and military facilities in Tehran, including the presidential office and National Security Council buildings. [17][18][19][20] U.S. and Israeli forces have destroyed Iranian Revolutionary Guard command posts, air defense systems, rocket launchers, and naval vessels in the Gulf of Oman. [21][22] Iranian forces claimed destruction of a U.S. radar system in Qatar and launched missile strikes on U.S. bases in Bahrain and other Gulf states. [2][23][24][25] Civilian Impact and Displacement Over 30,000 people have been displaced in Lebanon due to Israeli-Hezbollah hostilities, with many seeking shelter in collective centers or stranded in transit. [26][27] Iranian civilians have suffered heavy casualties, with reports of missile strikes hitting residential areas in Tehran and other cities, causing widespread fear and sheltering behavior. [6][8][10][28] Internet blackouts in Iran hinder independent verification of casualty figures and damage assessments. [6] Intelligence and Cyber Operations Israeli intelligence unit 8200 exploited Iranian surveillance cameras to track Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's movements, facilitating targeted strikes. [29][30] Outcome Impact Assessment The death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the initial U.S.-Israeli strike has intensified retaliatory actions and deepened regional instability. [2][31] The conflict has disrupted global energy markets, with attacks on oil and gas infrastructure in Gulf states and Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz. [2][13][32] U.S. and allied diplomatic missions in the Middle East have closed or evacuated non-essential personnel due to escalating threats, reflecting heightened regional insecurity. [7][33][34][35][36] What to Watch For Potential expansion of hostilities into additional Middle Eastern countries as Iran continues missile and drone attacks on U.S. and allied targets. [2][11][12][37] Further Israeli ground operations in southern Lebanon aiming to establish a security buffer zone and prevent Hezbollah attacks. [1][3][4][38] Iran's capacity to sustain prolonged missile and drone campaigns amid ongoing U.S.-Israeli military pressure and resource depletion concerns. [12][16] *Individual sources linked within Seerist platform
Lebanon, in focus
Iran-Israel-US: Comparison of Hostilities as of 3 March 2026
Overview: Iran's missile and drone strikes have expanded the conflict geographically, targeting U.S. embassies in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, Gulf energy infrastructure, and shipping lanes, increasing risks to regional stability and global energy markets. Hezbollah's active engagement and Israeli military incursions into southern Lebanon raise the potential for a broader Lebanon-Israel confrontation. Watch for potential further escalation in southern Lebanon as Israeli forces continue ground operations and Hezbollah maintains rocket and drone attacks. Iranian retaliatory missile and drone strikes targeting U.S. and allied facilities in the Gulf and possibly beyond, including maritime and energy infrastructure (DiscoverAI).
Breakdown of Verified ‘War’ Events Targeting the Oil & Gas Sector by Attack-Type
Military drone: 3 (60.00%) Missile/Rocket: 2 (40.00%)
Comparison of Hostilities Across First 48 Hours
Overview The conflict with Iran shifted from a focus on leadership nodes and security infrastructure on 28 February 2026 to a more expansive and lethal campaign on 1 March 2026 due to the increase in civilian casualties compared to the initial day of hostilities.
Insight: On 28 February 2026, the US and Israel launched a coordinated offensive against Iran, primarily targeting military infrastructure, missile facilities, and leadership nodes in provinces such as Tehran, Isfahan, and Qom. Analysts noted that these initial strikes were designed to maximize operational disruption by occurring in the early morning and focusing on the security apparatus. Iran responded with an unprecedented wave of strikes across the Middle East, targeting US-allied countries hosting military bases, including Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and the UAE.
(28 Feb) Day #1 Verified Events by ‘Sector’ Targeted
(1 Mar) Day #2 Verified Events by ‘Sector’ Targeted
Insight: The conflict intensified on 1 March 2026 as the US and Israel expanded their targeting profile to include more than 30 sites, encompassing regime targets, military command centers, ships, and broadcasting sites. Iran’s retaliation also grew more lethal; a missile impact in Jerusalem reportedly killed at least nine people and injured 27 others, while another strike in Tel Aviv reportedly killed one person and injured 20. In the Gulf, debris from intercepted projectiles caused a fire at Jebel Ali Port in Dubai and impacted Bahrain International Airport. Analysts warned that the removal of Iran's top leadership would not immediately change Tehran's posture, as the IRGC pledged revenge and claimed to have launched attacks on 27 bases hosting US troops.
Maritime Risk & Impact to Key Markets in the Strait of Hormuz
Impact of February 2026 Iran Conflict on Oil & Gas Market. The February 2026 conflict between the US/Israel and Iran has led to a significant deterioration of maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has warned that the strait is banned for all ships, and while a complete, sustained closure is unlikely, there is an increased risk of Iranian seizures or assaults against US- and Israel-affiliated shipping. Naval engagements between US and Iranian forces pose a collateral damage risk to all vessels. A prolonged disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for approximately 20% of global oil and LNG supply, could lead to a significant rise in global oil and gas prices (estimated 25%-50%), increasing inflation and slowing global growth. Asian economies are particularly exposed to these disruptions. The conflict has also led to immediate disruptions in regional air travel and shipping.
Control Risks’ Verified Maritime Events Since 28 February 2026
Nearly 20% of global oil supply (20m barrels per day) and a 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply transits the strait on a daily basis, and a prolonged disruption of shipping would lead to a significant rise in global oil and gas prices (with estimates ranging from 25%-50%). Military operations pose a threat to regional oil production and shipping; a short-term spike in global oil prices is likely. Iranian forces on 28 February over VHF radio channel 16 warned “from now on, no ship is allowed to pass Strait of Hormuz. From now on Strait of Hormuz is banned for all ships. Whether Iran enforces the closure or not, the threat alone has already diverted multiple ships away from planned transits through the Strait, with many more likely to pause until the fog of war lifts – this is likely to take days at least.
EmotionsAI Trends Across News & Social Discussing Global Oil Prices Over the Last 60 Days
Sentiment Trends Across News & Social Over the Last 60 Days Centered on Impact of February’s Conflict in Iran on Global Oil Prices
Source: Seerist, AskAnna NLQ Output, Control Risks’ Analysis #1, #2
Conflict Reporting: Analyzing Sentiment & Emotions Over Last 7 Days
Analyst’s Note Of the 293 reports that met the threshold to register a sentiment classified as either positive, negative, or neutral using Seerist’s natural language processing and machine learning algorithms to identify and categorize sentiment expressed in textual data, approximately: 12.7% were categorized as negative 23.5% were positive 63.8% were neutral The prevailing emotion registering across high- and medium-reliability international news reporting on the conflict was Fear at 44%, followed by Anger (34.8%), and Sadness (16%). The remaining emotions - Disgust, Joy, and Surprise – including Neutral – accounted for the remaining percentage of news reports.
Chart Indicating Sentiment Related to Iran-Israel-US Conflict Across High- and Medium-Reliability International News Sources
EmotionsAI Trends in International News Sources
Analyst’s Note Compared to the 293 reports that registered a sentiment in conflict-centric content published by International News sources, 2,751 reports registered a sentiment in regional (Middle East) news sources when discussing the February conflict. 30.4% were categorized as negative 26.0% were positive 43.6% were neutral Fear (72.1%) followed by Anger (14.2%) and Sadness (10.6%) accounted for the top 3 emotions associated with the Iran-Israel-US conflict in reporting coming from Middle East news sources over the past 7 days.
Chart Indicating Sentiment Around the Conflict in High- and Medium-Reliability Regional News Sources
EmotionsAI Trends Across Middle East Regional News Sources
Analyst’s Note Positive sentiment in domestic Iranian news reporting held a slight edge on negative sentiment over the past 7 days. Internal reporting emphasized narratives celebrating missile strikes on US military bases in the region and a commitment to fight despite the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader on 28 February. The sentiment breakdown across 795 reports is below: 21.7% were categorized as negative 26.2% were positive 52.1% were neutral Like trends observed in the Middle East Regional News Monitor, Iranian state or Iranian-aligned domestic news sources registered Fear (50%), Anger (28.9%), and Sadness (14.2%) across the 7-day period, with most emotions spiking when strikes commenced on 28 Feb.
Chart Indicating Sentiment Across Domestic Iranian State and Iranian-Aligned (e.g., Journalistic) Sources
EmotionsAI Trends
International News Monitor
Middle East Regional News Monitor
Iran Domestic News Monitor
Posted 02 March 2026
Posted 01 March 2026
OVERVIEW As of 1 Mar, the conflict in Iran has resulted in the near-total closure of airspace in Iran, Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, and Qatar, with significant restrictions also affecting the UAE, Bahrain, and Syria. • Major international hubs, including Dubai International (DXB), Al Maktoum International (DWC), and Erbil International, have suspended all operat ions causing over 3,400 to 5,000 flight cancellations and thousands of passengers stranded globally. Kuwait International and Bahrain International airports have sustained direct damage from Iranian drone and missile strikes. Global airlines such as Lufthansa, British Airways, Air France-KLM, Turkish Airlines, and Qatar Airways have canceled hundreds of flights across the region, some through 7 Mar. On Mar 1, Gulf car riers Emirates and Etihad canceled 38% and 30% of their flights respectively; Indian airlines alone canceled approximately 444 international flights. Consequently, air traffic is being heavily rerouted through Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey, or over Afghanistan and Central Asia, to avoid the active combat zones. While Saudi Arabian air cor ridors remain open, most regional travel is still characterized by cancellations, significant delays, and technical hazards such as GPS jamming.
Verified War Events Targeting Airports in the Last 24 Hours
AskAnna NLQ / DiscoverAI
Breaking Event
MAJOR HUB DISRUPTIONS AND AIRPORT ATTACKS The conflict has severely impacted major global transit hubs, most notably in the UAE. On February 28, 2026, author ities announced a total suspension of operations at Dubai International Airport (DXB) and Al Maktoum International Airport (DWC) due to Iranian missile launches. In Iraq, flight operations were suspended at Erbil International Airport, which later became a target of Iranian ballistic missile or drone strikes on March 1, 2026. Kuwait International Airport also faced disruptions after Iranian drones targeted Terminal 1 on February 28. Additionally, Bahrain International Airport suffered property damage from an Iranian drone attack on March 1, 2026, while operations at Zayed International Airport in Abu Dhabi remain significantly impacted by delays and cancellations.
EmotionsAI Analysis of Middle East Overflight Risks (Feb 23 – Mar 1)
Seerist DiscoverAI 24-Hour Timeline on ‘Escalating US-Israel Military Actions Against Iran’
Overview On February 28, 2026, the U.S. and Israel launched a major coordinated military strike against Iran targeting leadership and strategic sites. Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on U.S. and Israeli assets across the Middle East, causing casualties and damage in Gulf states including the UAE. The escalation prompted international diplomatic responses, emergency UN meetings, and increased military readiness in the region. Control Risks’ Insight The US and Israel on 28 February launched extensive military strikes on Iran reportedly targeting its military assets, missile facilities and political leadership. Iran launched missile attacks on Israel and US-linked military bases in the Gulf Arab region in response. US strikes and Iranian retaliation are likely to continue for days to weeks, posing a prolonged security threat to the wider region. Military operations pose a threat to regional oil production and shipping; a short-term spike in global oil prices is likely. The conflict will significantly disrupt regional air travel and shipping in the coming days. More than in mid-2025, the current conflict could reorder regional geopolitics, influence global energy security and reshape strategic competition.
Strikes and aftermath US President Donald Trump, in a statement announcing the attacks, stated that a US goal was regime change in Iran and indicated that strikes would be likely to continue for days or weeks. Iran’s direct and asymmetric retaliation is likely to continue for a similar timeframe. Both the US and Iran have large but limited inventories of missiles and air defense interceptors. Similar but less extensive Israeli and US strikes on Iran’s military and nuclear facilities in June 2025, and Iran’s missile and drone retaliation, lasted 12 days before a ceasefire was reached. (Control Risks’ Analysis)
Analyzing Iran’s Stability
Insight The outlook for Iran's stability following the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on 28 February 2026 is characterized by immediate regional volatility and long-term domestic uncertainty, though the regime's core power structures are expected to show initial resilience. While the assassination of the second leader of the Islamic Republic throws the future of the theocracy into doubt, February 2026 assessments indicate that the Iranian system is designed to endure beyond a single individual, with established command structures and deputies intended to maintain continuity.
Regime Resilience & Command Continuity The Iranian regime is expected to maintain control and continuity in its command structure despite the high-profile assassinations of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and multiple senior military leaders on 28 February 2026. Analysts assessed in June 2025 that the regime's command structure is resilient, as evidenced by its ability to quickly appoint successors and operationalize retaliatory strikes following previous Israeli operations. While the death of the second leader of the Islamic Republic, who had no designated successor, throws the future into doubt, the existing power structures and policies are expected to remain stable.
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Analyzing Domestic Iranian State & Aligned Media Narratives using Seerist’s EmotionsAI Capability
Source: Seerist, AskAnna
Impact Across the Region to Country-level Stability
Key Takeaway The regional response to the US-Israel-Iran conflict in February 2026 is defined by a rapid shift from diplomatic mediation to emergency crisis management and defensive posturing. Gulf Arab states, led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have moved from issuing pre-emptive declarations of neutrality in late January to active military defense and public condemnation of Iran following retaliatory missile strikes on February 28, 2026. While these states previously sought to mediate through Omaniled talks in Geneva, the commencement of US-Israeli "regime change" operations has forced them into a unified stance against Iranian aggression. In the Levant, Lebanon and Jordan are prioritizing domestic stability, with Hizbullah signaling restraint to avoid Israeli counter-strikes and Jordan actively intercepting missiles over its territory. The conflict has caused a near-total collapse of regional civil aviation and digital connectivity, with eight nations closing their airspace and Iran implementing a nationwide internet blackout as of February 28, 2026. This escalation has effectively ended the "no deal, no crisis" equilibrium of late 2025, replacing it with a high-intensity regional war that threatens global energy security and local economic diversification plans.
Analyst’s Note Seerist recorded 52 ‘war’ verified events so far on 28 February across 12 countries in region. The sector most targeted during the day’s attacks were military in nature (69%), followed by aviation (7.3%) and maritime (5.8%). An aggregated view of the VEs by sector is included in the graphic below. The primary attack type for these events involved the use of missile/rockets (46), with airstrikes (28) and military drones (10) recorded. Some attacks included the multiple types of delivery methods at once in a likely attempt to overwhelm nation Integrated Air Defense Systems.
Note: The PulseAI stability score is an algorithm designed to identify anomalies in media reporting to compute daily micro-changes in risk and stability using Control Risks’ risk ratings as a baseline score.
Map of the Region with Country-Specific PulseAI Scores & Verified ‘War’ Events
Verified Events by ‘Sector’ Targeted
PulseAI Score Changes
Military: 47 (69.12%)
Aviation: 5 (7.35%)
Marine: 4 (5.88%)
Government: 3 (4.41%)
Private Property: 3 (4.41%)
Education: 2 (2.94%)
Hospitality: 2 (2.94%)
Entertainment: 1 (1.47%)
Road: 1 (1.47%)
Overview On February 28, 2026, the U.S. and Israel launched a major coordinated military strike against Iran targeting leadership and strategic sites. Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on U.S. and Israeli assets across the Middle East, causing casualties and damage in Gulf states including t he UAE. The escalation prompted international diplomatic responses, emergency UN meetings, and increased military readiness in the region. Control Risks’ Insight The US and Israel on 28 February launched extensive military strikes on Iran reportedly targeting its military assets, missile facilities and political leadership. Iran launched missile attacks on Israel and US-linked military bases in the Gulf Arab region in response. US strikes and Iranian retaliation are likely to continue for days to weeks, posing a prolonged security threat to the wider region. Military operations pose a threat to regional oil production and shipping; a short-term spike in global oil prices is likely. The conflict will significantly disrupt regional air travel and shipping in the coming days. More than in mid-2025, the current conflict could reorder regional geopolitics, influence global energy security and reshape strategic competition.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched coordinated, large-scale military strikes against Iran, targeting multiple cities including Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, Karaj, and Kermanshah. The operations, codenamed 'Lion's Roar' (Israel), 'Epic Fury' (US), and 'Judah's Shield' (joint), focused on high-value targets including Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's residence and senior political and military officials. Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes targeting Israeli territory and multiple U.S. military bases across the Middle East, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE, Iraq, Jordan, and Syria. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS The U.S. and Israeli strikes reportedly destroyed the Supreme Leader's palace complex and targeted multiple military and governmental sites, with unconfirmed reports of fatalities among Iran's top leadership. Iran launched missile attacks on seven Middle Eastern countries hosting U.S. forces, including Iraq, Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE, and Syria, marking a broad regional retaliation. The U.S. has deployed additional military assets, including aircraft and drones, to regional bases in Jordan, Kuwait, and Qatar in preparation for ongoing operations.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR Iran's next retaliatory moves, including missile, drone, cyber, and proxy attacks against U.S. bases and regional allies, remain critical to monitor for escalation or de-escalation signals. Potential responses from Gulf Arab states, especially Saudi Arabia, which has reserved the right to retaliate, could broaden the conflict geographically. The health and status of Iran's Supreme Leader and top officials, as well as the regime's internal stability amid protests and opposition, will influence conflict trajectory.
Iran
Verified ‘War’ Events in Iran with Pulse Stability Score Overlay
Verified Events by Sector Targeted
Military: 24 (80.00%) Government: 3 (10.00%)
Education: 2 (6.67%) Marine: 1 (3.33%)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched coordinated, large-scale military strikes against Iran, targeting multiple cities including Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, Karaj, and Kermanshah. The operations, codenamed 'Lion's Roar' (Israel), 'Epic Fury' (US), and 'Judah's Shield' (joint), focused on high-value targets including Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's residence and senior political and military officials. Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes targeting Israeli territory and multiple U.S. military bases across the Middle East, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE, Iraq, Jordan, and Syria. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS The U.S. and Israeli strikes reportedly destroyed the Supreme Leader's palace complex and targeted multiple military and governmental sites, with unconfirmed reports of fatalities among Iran's top leadership. Iran launched missile attacks on seven Middle Eastern countries hosting U.S. forces, including Iraq, Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE, and Syria, marking a broad regional retaliation. The U.S. has deployed additional military assets, including aircraft and drones, to regional bases in Jordan, Kuwait, and Qatar in preparation for ongoing operations. WHAT TO WATCH FOR Iran's next retaliatory moves, including missile, drone, cyber, and proxy attacks against U.S. bases and regional allies, remain critical to monitor for escalation or de-escalation signals. Potential responses from Gulf Arab states, especially Saudi Arabia, which has reserved the right to retaliate, could broaden the conflict geographically. The health and status of Iran's Supreme Leader and top officials, as well as the regime's internal stability amid protests and opposition, will influence conflict trajectory.
OVERVIEW On February 28, 2026, Iran's Revolutionary Guards declared a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil and LNG shipping route, amid escalating U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iran. This led major oil companies to suspend shipments and tankers to avoid the strait due to safety concerns and military warnings. The resulting tensions have driven oil prices above $72 per barrel, with forecasts warning of further sharp increases if the strait remains closed, threatening global energy supplies and economic stability. THREAT ANALYSIS Iran possesses significant capability to disrupt global oil markets through potential attacks on shipping, mining the Strait of Hormuz, or targeting oil infrastructure of U.S. allies in the Gulf region. The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow maritime channel between Oman and Iran, through which approximately 20 million barrels of oil and over 10 billion cubic feet of LNG pass daily, representing about 20-30% of global seaborne oil trade. A full closure of the Strait of Hormuz would severely impact global energy supplies and could cause oil prices to surge above $90-$150 per barrel, with significant economic consequences worldwide. WHAT TO WATCH FOR Iran's next moves regarding the Strait of Hormuz, including any formal blockade or mining operations, which would critically affect global oil and LNG flows. Responses from Gulf Arab states and the U.S. military, including potential escort operations or increased naval presence to secure shipping lanes. Duration and extent of shipment suspensions by oil majors and trading houses, and whether alternative routes or increased production from other OPEC+ members will offset supply disruptions.
Control Risks’ Strait of Hormuz Risk Ratings
Map of Strait of Hormuz (SoH) ‘War (maritime)’ Risk Rating & Updates
EmotionsAI Trends in News & Social Around Conflict’s Impact to SoH
Sentiment in News & Social Reporting Around SoH Risk Environment
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