June 2023
After months of increasing cost-of-living pressure and a growing discontent at the government from many sections of society, President João Lourenço’s decision to start removing fuel subsidies (initially doubling the price of fuel) proved to be one step too far for many in Angola.
Between mid and late May, Seerist’s analysts verified numerous unrest events related to the rising cost of living, lack of employment and basic necessities, as well plans to ban popular economic activities, such as street vending. Unrest events were verified by Seerist’s intel team due to rising tension among citizens and authorities.
Angola
Escalating tensions: The strongly worded statement by SAF spokesperson Nabil Abdallah said that RSF troops had deployed without coordination with the SAF, in violation of “the directives of the central and state security committees.” The army warned the RSF to abide by existing security protocols. The current dispute stems from plans to regularise the RSF by integrating the paramilitary organisation into the SAF command structures, a move heavily resisted by the RSF.
The civilian Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) coalition on 13 April urged the security forces to avoid any escalation and blamed “remnants of the former regime” of former president Omar al-Bashir (1989-2019) for stirring up tensions to derail the transition to a civilian-led government. Several other groups including the current holdout groups to the December 2022 framework agreement such as the Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) and international diplomats urged the RSF and SAF to negotiate their differences and avoid armed conflict.
Escalating tensions: The strongly worded statement by SAF spokesperson Nabil Abdallah said that RSF troops had deployed without coordination with the SAF, in violation of “the directives of the central and state security committees.” The army warned the RSF to abide by existing security protocols. The current dispute stems from plans to regularise the RSF by integrating the paramilitary organisation into the SAF command structures, a move heavily resisted by the RSF.
The civilian Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) coalition on 13 April urged the security forces to avoid any escalation and blamed “remnants of the former regime” of former president Omar al-Bashir (1989-2019) for stirring up tensions to derail the transition to a civilian-led government. Several other groups including the current holdout groups to the December 2022 framework agreement such as the Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) and international diplomats urged the RSF and SAF to negotiate their differences and avoid armed conflict.
Government removed longstanding subsidies on fuel prompting several protests nationwide.
1 JUNE 2023
Unrest hotspot triggered following violent protests in Huambo.
7 JUNE 2023
BRIEF: The removal of fuel subsidies prompts a series of demonstrations throughout Angola.
TIMELINE
Local civic organization called for a national demonstration.
Movimento Civico Mudei called for protests on June 17th. This was confirmed by data pulled in by Seerist's Events AI on the 8th and later picked up by Control Risks' analysis team.
8 JUNE 2023
Seerist updates Scenarios – most likely, credible alternative, and outlier scenarios.
9 JUNE 2023
Seerist’s Pulse stability trendline shows deteriorating stability.
Angola's stability score is well below the 60-day average, indicating the destabilizing effect of violent protests.
13 JUNE 2023
ANALYSIS
14 JUNE 2023
Lourenço's government continues to face growing public pressure to fulfil its promises to alleviate increasing cost of living pressures and introduce various social support programs. It will also face further scrutiny from civil society groups regarding its heavy-handed responses to the protests and what they allege is an increase in its oversight of civil society organizations and NGOs.
Civil society groups will continue to criticize the government’s heavy-handed response to protests and apparent erosion of civic freedoms, while calling for further demonstrations in coming days.
President João Lourenço will look to defuse civil society criticism by publicly defending his government’s economic policies and carrying out some government changes.
Businesses are unlikely to be targeted during protests. However, clashes between protesters and state security forces will pose incidental security threats to personnel and assets in major urban centers, including the capital of Luanda.
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(May 16 – Students in Luanda gathered to protest a lack of water, electricity, and transportation marking the beginning of tension between citizens and authorities.)
May 22- 400 street vendors protest plans to ban street vendors, police fired tear gas at protestors
May 28 In Huambo city locals gathered and marched protesting a lack of jobs and high unemployment
Protests in Huambo and Lubango led to clashes with security forces.
5–6 JUNE 2023
5 people were killed and 8 others were injured. 57 demonstrators were arrested to curb vandalism and criminal activity.
5–12 JUNE 2023
Multiple unrest and violent protest events verified
Citizens prominently affected by the subsidy removal, such as taxi and motorbike operators, took to the streets to voice their disapproval.
Ongoing clashes between demonstrators and police prompted an unrest hotspot to populate in the platform, notifying users of continued turmoil in the city.
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