The two main militant groups which maintain operational capabilities in Afghanistan are the Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K) and the Haqqani Network. Its operational capabilities will increase further over the coming years as the Taliban remains incapable of curbing IS-K activities given its ambitions beyond the region, which is likely to result in the increase in attacks against foreign personnel and commercial and strategic assets that are deemed critical for the state. Mass-casualty and high-profile attacks in Kabul will continue given the high level of international media attention they attract.
Likely factionalism within the Taliban will also lead to the emergence of newer, smaller offshoots led by district-level commanders. Defections are likely to increase in the coming years, with disillusioned fighters looking to leave the Taliban having a host of other militant groups to choose from.
AFGHANISTAN
PAKISTAN
SOUTHERN
THAILAND
Anti-state and sectarian militant groups pose the greatest terrorism threat in Pakistan. Militant groups such as Tehreek-e- Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Islamic State (IS) will increase attacks against government targets, security installations, law- enforcement personnel and civilians. Sectarian groups such as Lashkar-e-Jhangvi and Lashkar-e-Taiba will continue to mainly target non-Sunni religious minorities, while separatist groups maintain the intent to target commercial infrastructure and foreign nationals, especially Chinese nationals. Following the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021 and the near completion of several projects under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), separatist groups have demonstrated increased intent and capabilities to target Chinese personnel and assets.
Despite increased counter-terrorism operations, the threat of large-scale attacks remains elevated in the former tribal areas and districts in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa where militant groups maintain a stronger presence, as well as in economically strategic parts of the south-western province of Balochistan, such as Gwadar; the central province of Punjab; and central areas of the southern province of Sindh.
Thailand’s terrorism risk rating is LOW, except in the southernmost region, comprising the provinces of Yala, Pattani, Narathiwat and Songkhla, which has a HIGH terrorism risk rating. Thailand serves as a convenient place of refuge for transnational terrorist groups. In the past, members of the regional Islamist militant Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) network have plotted operations from Thailand, and senior JI members mainly transited through or resided in the country.
The Barisan Revolusi Nasional Melayu Patani (BRN), which is the main insurgent group in the southernmost provinces, is motivated by a quest for independence rather than Islamist terrorist ideology and has rebuffed overtures by the Islamic State (IS) to work together – contributing to IS’s failures to gain a foothold in Thailand in the past decade. The BRN has also rarely ventured out of the southernmost region to stage militant attacks.
Philippines
AFGHANISTAN
PAKISTAN
SOUTHERN
THAILAND
Philippines
AFGHANISTAN
PAKISTAN
SOUTHERN
THAILAND
Philippines
Terrorism risks are present throughout the Philippines, but in varying degrees depending on the region. In the southern Philippines, extremist-driven threats are mostly concentrated in Mindanao. The militant groups that operate in Mindanao include the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG), Islamist State (IS)-linked Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) and Dawlah Islamiyah (formerly known as Maute group).
The New People’s Army (NPA), the armed wing of the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP), poses a significant threat in Metro Manila. The NPA in January 2021 stated it would revive their urban hit squads, but their threat is likely limited as their targets are largely members of the security forces. The death of the CPP leader in December 2022 is unlikely to have a significant impact on the NPA’s decentralised operational capabilities.
AFGHANISTAN
PAKISTAN
SOUTHERN
THAILAND
Philippines
Assessing Terrorism Trends Across APAC
Overview: Terrorism in the Asia Pacific (APAC) Region
Source: Control Risks
Terrorism Risk Ratings across APAC
Analyse APAC Terrorism Trends with Verified Events Data
Key Trends
Pakistan continues to experience the highest level of terrorism in the APAC region. In the lead up to the country’s general elections on 8 February 2024, Seerist recorded a 52% increase in militant attacks.
Militancy continues to persist in Afghanistan as militant groups like IS-K maintain operational capabilities, however, attacks have decreased significantly since the Taliban’s takeover in August 2021.
Security personnel and assets such as military bases, security checkpoints and police stations remain the primary targets for attacks, accounting for 64% of all verified terrorism events in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Thailand and the Philippines from January 2023 to March 2024.
Militant attacks in the region are predominantly small-scale in nature, involving the use of firearms and low- level explosives, apart from Pakistan and Afghanistan, the only two countries where suicide bombings were recorded from January 2023 to March 2024.
In Focus
Afghanistan
Pakistan
THAILAND
philippines
Targeted attack against foreigners underscores EXTREME terrorism risk rating
Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K) through the broader Islamic State (IS) group’s media channel Aamaq News Agency claimed a 17 May attack targeting foreign tourists in Bamyan province.
IS-K will retain an intent to target foreigners, in line with both the broader group’s sentiments against those seen as acting against Muslims and its own objective of undermining the Taliban’s authority as a security provider.
IS-K will also continue its targeting of the Taliban as well as civilians and minorities that it perceives as supporting the Taliban government. Our terrorism risk rating will remain EXTREME.
Source: Control Risks Analysis – published 20 May 2024
The Taliban is likely to respond to persistent IS-K attacks by conducting security operations in areas with an IS-K presence, while maintaining a greater presence in the vicinity of high- profile areas such as airports.
However, these will do little to improve a fragile security landscape and mitigate elevated security threats for foreign entities and personnel.
VIEW CITY PROFILE FOR KABUL
Afghanistan
Pakistan
THAILAND
philippines
Terrorism risk remains EXTREME in most of Balochistan province following militant attacks
Two successive improvised explosive device (IED) attacks on 2 May in Duki district, Balochistan province, killed one person and injured 20 others, including two provincial counterterrorism department officials.
Baloch separatist groups such as the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) are likely to have carried out the attacks. These groups are opposed to the state and perceive the extractives sector as exploiting the province’s resources.
Separatist groups and militant groups such as the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) will seek to increase attacks in the coming months by capitalising on the greater capabilities they have derived by securing more advanced weaponry from Afghanistan and forming alliances with each other.
Despite the military’s counterterrorism efforts, Balochistan province will continue to witness regular small-scale and occasional large-scale attacks. Our terrorism risk rating for most of Balochistan, excluding Gwadar, remains EXTREME.
A heightened presence of paramilitary and law-enforcement personnel in the vicinity of strategic projects will limit a rise in militant threats to such projects. However, assets, infrastructure and personnel with limited security provision will face persistent threats.
Source: Control Risks Analysis – published 8 May 2024
VIEW CITY PROFILES FOR KARACHI AND PESHAWAR
Afghanistan
Pakistan
THAILAND
philippines
Security Risks
Terrorism and War
Not all BRN factions agree with the talks, which explains ongoing attacks against state and security forces, critical infrastructure and civilians working for the state in the southernmost region. These are aimed at either discrediting the peace talks or forcing the government to commit to meeting insurgent demands. Foreign companies, their assets and personnel are unlikely to be directly targeted; their exposure to violence would be largely incidental though potentially lethal. Insurgents are well-trained in deploying remote roadside bombs with a large explosive radius. Insurgents may threaten to target unpopular projects with local communities in the far south or when certain businesses are perceived to be closely linked to rival political factions.
Source: Control Risks and Seerist
The southernmost provinces – covering the provinces of Narathiwat, Yala, Pattani and Songkhla – remain affected by a long-running Malay-Muslim insurgency that continues to claim casualties on a regular basis. Foreign companies remain unlikely targets but staff travelling in the region are highly exposed to incidental risks from bombings and shootings.
The violence has claimed more than 7,000 lives over the past two decades. The key rebel movement in the region, the BRN, is seeking independence, or at the very least regional autonomy, from the central government and is trying to secure such guarantees through peace talks which have progressed slowly in the past year.
Arson attacks were reported at over 40 locations across the southernmost provinces on 22 March during the month of Ramadan
Afghanistan
Pakistan
THAILAND
philippines
Security Risks
Terrorism
The most salient war risks include rebellion and insurgency. An insurgency by the communist NPA persists in many parts of the country, while Islamist militants and separatist groups maintain armed commands across many provinces in Mindanao (southern Philippines). The state deals with threats posed by these groups through a combination of military force and negotiations. The government in November 2023 agreed to resume peace talks with the National Democratic Front of the Philippines, the political wing of the CPP, but this is unlikely to prevent the NPA from staging opportunistic attacks against the police and the military.
Extremist-driven threats are mostly concentrated in Mindanao (southern Philippines) and are less pronounced in other parts of the country. The militant groups that operate in Mindanao include the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG), Islamist State (IS)-linked Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) and Dawlah Islamiyah (formerly known as Maute group). IS-linked attacks peaked in 2017 during the siege of Marawi city (Lanao del Sur, Mindanao) by the Maute group, but IS-associated violence in Mindanao has been on a decline since 2021. Similarly, the BIFF is suffering significant personnel losses following regular clashes with government forces. The arrests of numerous members of militant organisations also suggest improved intelligence and counter-terrorism capabilities of the military and the police.
Terrorism risks have been on the decline since the early and mid-2000s, when Islamic militants staged a series of high-profile attacks in various parts of the country. These included simultaneous bombings in Metro Manila that killed 22 people in December 2000, a commercial ferry bombing off Manila Bay that killed 116 people in February 2004 and Valentine’s Day bombings in different places that killed at least nine people in February 2005.
Source: Control Risks
Security Risks
War
view Heatmap of verified terrorism and war events in the Philippines
Seerist Analyses Provide Outlooks on Terrorism Risks in Key Countries
Afghanistan The Taliban will respond to persistent IS-K attacks by conducting sporadic security operations in areas such as the capital Kabul and in Nangarhar province where the group is known to have a presence. In addition, the Taliban is likely to maintain a greater presence in the vicinity of high-profile targets and areas such as airports.
However, such measures will do little to mitigate militant threats. Foreign entities and personnel will face significant direct and indirect security threats while operating in Afghanistan, including while travelling in the vicinity of public spaces. Our security risk rating will remain EXTREME.
Pakistan In Pakistan, Balochistan-based separatist groups and militant groups such as the TTP will seek to increase attacks in the province in the coming months by capitalising on the greater capabilities accorded to them by procuring more advanced weaponry from Afghanistan and forming alliances with each other as well as smaller sectarian groups. In response, the military will continue to conduct counterterrorism operations in the province. Although these will help to prevent a deterioration in security nationwide, the security environment in Balochistan province will remain fragile and marked by frequent small-scale attacks as well as periodic large-scale attacks.
A heightened presence of paramilitary and law-enforcement personnel in the vicinity of strategic projects in the province will limit militant threats to such projects. However, less secure assets, infrastructure and personnel will face persistent threats of attacks. Our terrorism risk rating for most of Balochistan province excluding Gwadar will remain EXTREME. Our terrorism risk rating for Gwadar will remain HIGH, driven by the relatively more stable security environment in the strategic port city.
Thailand The latest arson attacks on 22 March do not suggest a change in the modus operandi of Malay-Muslim insurgents in the southernmost provinces, but indicate the likelihood of further incidents despite ongoing peace talks Although the attacks targeted private buildings alongside government property, there are no signs that insurgents had tried to single out foreign-owned properties or foreigners. These attacks are intended to undermine the military’s reputation rather than cause large- scale fatalities, though future incidents will continue to have the potential to cause incidental harm to passers-by.
Philippines The Philippine government on 26 March declared the "strategic defeat" of the communist insurgency NPA, claiming that the group has no more active guerilla fronts nationwide. The NPA has experienced significant reductions in headcount and the loss of key leaders in recent years, diminishing the capacity of its guerilla units to extort and directly threaten businesses. Businesses operating in NPA hotspots – especially within sectors like mining, energy and telecommunications – remain vulnerable to such risks, but the NPA's ability to carry out its modus operandi will further diminish over time. Nevertheless, business deployments to known NPA hotspots should evaluate their threat exposure to both NPA and military counter- insurgency operations, as well as consider route planning and contingency measures.
Ethnic Militants
Leftist Guerillas
Islamist Extremists
Unknown
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40
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Verified Terrorism Events in the Philippines and Thailand by Perpetrator (Jan 2023 – Mar 2024)
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Number of Verified Terrorism Events
Philippines
Q1 2023
Q2 2023
Q3 2023
Q4 2023
Q1 2024
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34%
30%
19%
8%
2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
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Law Enforcement/Legal
Private Property
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Retail
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Verified Terrorism Events by Sector in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Thailand, Philippines (Jan 2023 – Mar 2024)
Source: Seerist
0
Knife/Bladed Weapon
Missile/Rocket
Car Bomb
Landmine
Roadside Bomb
Arson/Firebomb
Suicide Bomber
Grenade
IED/Homemade
Gun (Firearm)
100
200
300
400
Verified Terrorism Events by Attack Type in APAC (Jan 2023 – Mar 2024)
500
600
700
800
City Profile
Kabul
Since the Taliban takeover, IS-K has increasingly carried out mass-casualty and high-profile attacks in the city, including in areas where the presence of the Taliban is higher. The Taliban conducts security operations to curb militant networks, but these have done little to minimise security threats.
Despite a heavy presence of Taliban fighters in Kabul, the security environment remains fragile given the heightened intent and capabilities of the IS-K to mount large-scale attacks targeting public spaces and government buildings. Travellers will also encounter multiple checkpoints through the city and will be subjected to questioning and scrutiny by Taliban fighters, which often operate with impunity.
Source: Control Risks and Seerist
Heatmap of verified terrorism events in Kabul (Jan 2023 – present)
Source: Control Risks and Seerist
City Profile
Karachi
The security environment in the city is volatile due to the presence of numerous threat actors, ranging from criminal gangs and extremist groups with political wings to militant and separatist groups. Political and socioeconomic protests will continue to drive indirect security threats and operational disruption. Continued counterterrorism operations in Pakistan’s border regions since 2014 and paramilitary-led operations in Karachi in 2015 that targeted militant networks and the armed wings of political parties have led to an improvement in the city’s security landscape. However, an uptick in militancy in Pakistan’s border regions since 2021 has led to occasional small-scale attacks by militant and separatist groups present in the city. Although law-enforcement agencies maintain a heightened presence in Karachi, sporadic large-scale attacks cannot be ruled out.
Heatmap of verified terrorism events in Pakistan (Jan 2023 – present)
City Profile
Peshawar
The city’s security environment is volatile. Its proximity to the former tribal areas drives a strong presence of militant groups, criminal gangs and other threat actors. Protests prompted by political developments and socioeconomic grievances fuel periodic incidental security threats and operational disruption. Peshawar has a history of sectarian violence due to the presence of religious minorities and militant groups in the city. While such threats have declined in recent years amid counterterrorism operations since 2014, the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in 2021 has resulted in a renewed rise in militancy and periodic outbreaks of such violence cannot be ruled out. Security provision is likely to be stronger in key areas such as the Cantonment area.
CLICK TO VIEW VERIFIED EVENT HEATMAP
Source: Seerist
Heatmap of verified terrorism and war events in the Philippines
July - September 2023
65
events
October - December 2023
22
events
January - March 2024
47
events
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Afghanistan
Targeted attack against foreigners underscores EXTREME terrorism risk rating
Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K) through the broader Islamic State (IS) group’s media channel Aamaq News Agency claimed a 17 May attack targeting foreign tourists in Bamyan province.
