September 2023
Azerbaijan-Armenia
Border Conflict
Escalating tensions: The strongly worded statement by SAF spokesperson Nabil Abdallah said that RSF troops had deployed without coordination with the SAF, in violation of “the directives of the central and state security committees.” The army warned the RSF to abide by existing security protocols. The current dispute stems from plans to regularise the RSF by integrating the paramilitary organisation into the SAF command structures, a move heavily resisted by the RSF.
The civilian Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) coalition on 13 April urged the security forces to avoid any escalation and blamed “remnants of the former regime” of former president Omar al-Bashir (1989-2019) for stirring up tensions to derail the transition to a civilian-led government. Several other groups including the current holdout groups to the December 2022 framework agreement such as the Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) and international diplomats urged the RSF and SAF to negotiate their differences and avoid armed conflict.
Escalating tensions: The strongly worded statement by SAF spokesperson Nabil Abdallah said that RSF troops had deployed without coordination with the SAF, in violation of “the directives of the central and state security committees.” The army warned the RSF to abide by existing security protocols. The current dispute stems from plans to regularise the RSF by integrating the paramilitary organisation into the SAF command structures, a move heavily resisted by the RSF.
The civilian Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) coalition on 13 April urged the security forces to avoid any escalation and blamed “remnants of the former regime” of former president Omar al-Bashir (1989-2019) for stirring up tensions to derail the transition to a civilian-led government. Several other groups including the current holdout groups to the December 2022 framework agreement such as the Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) and international diplomats urged the RSF and SAF to negotiate their differences and avoid armed conflict.
Pulse AI Drops
1 SEPTEMBER 2023
Seerist records a sharp drop in Armenia’s Pulse AI score as news and social media reports tell of fresh confrontations on the border resulting in multiple casualties amid the ongoing Azerbaijani blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Analysis Update
Nomination of a new Nagorno-Karabakh president and continued Azerbaijani pressure increases threat of military confrontation.
The de facto authorities in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh on 6 September nominated secretary of the security council and former director of the National Security Service Samvel Shahramanian as the region’s new president.
7 SEPTEMBER 2023
BRIEF: Nagorno-Karabakh region faces renewed conflict as Azerbaijan launches military offensive.
TIMELINE
Conflict Erupts
Verified Events register shelling in the disputed regions, as Azerbaijan launches a military offensive.
19 SEPTEMBER 2023
Protests Form
Unrest Hotspot triggered in Yerevan (Armenia) warning users of mass protests in the capital over the government's call for Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s resignation amid the intensification of fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh.
19-20 SEPTEMBER 2023
Civil unrest in Yerevan to drive political uncertainty in coming days
Thousands of people gathered in the capital Yerevan on 19 and 20 September to protest against the government’s position in relation to the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. They demanded Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s resignation and condemned the inaction of Russian peacekeepers in the region.
21 SEPTEMBER 2023
Events AI Reports Heightened Unrest
Events AI alerts users to a sudden influx of displaced civilians in Armenia, as Azerbaijan opens the Lachin corridor for residents of Nagorno-Karabakh to travel one way into Armenia. Events AI also reports an explosion at a gas station in Nagorno-Karabakh’s capital Stepanakert that killed more than 100 Armenians fleeing the region. A disaster Hotspot was triggered as a result of the explosion.
24-25 SEPTEMBER 2023
Verified Events
Seerist’s intelligence team continues to track and verify war, unrest, and political violence events across Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding regions although direct confrontations between Azerbaijan and Armenia have subsided.
Further unrest takes place in Yerevan (Armenia) over the forced displacement of residents from the Nagorno-Karabakh region.
30 SEPTEMBER 2023
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Shahramanian is a supporter of Nagorno-Karabakh’s right to self-determination and is unlikely to acquiesce to Azerbaijan’s demands that the region be fully integrated into Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan’s blockade of the Lachin corridor will likely continue as a means to enforce territorial integration and coerce locals into accepting the re-opening of the Agdam road, which connects the region to Azerbaijan.
The opening of the Agdam road is unlikely as it would undermine Shahramanian’s authority. As a result, the humanitarian environment is likely to further deteriorate, and the threat of military confrontation will increase.
Further ceasefire violations along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border are also likely in the coming days.
Concerns over security guarantees for ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh have often triggered such protests, but the fact that Pashinyan has avoided another war in the region has likely contributed to defusing any previous attempts to remove him from office.
With members of the opposition threatening to launch proceedings to remove him from office, Pashinyan’s role in mediating the safety of the local population will likely provide a critical test of his leadership.
The security environment in Yerevan will remain tense in the coming days, exposing foreign businesses to incidental security and operational risks.
Should fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh escalate again and result in more civilian deaths, unrest in Yerevan will likely increase, putting further pressure on Pashinyan’s leadership.
In December 2022, Azerbaijan initiated an extended blockade of the Lachin corridor, the only road connecting the Nagorno-Karabakh region to Armenia. This escalated tensions with Armenia and triggered a humanitarian crisis in the disputed region that proceeded to deteriorate over the following months. On 1 September 2023, Armenia’s Pulse AI stability score fell drastically as renewed confrontations along the border with Azerbaijan claimed multiple lives and signaled an impending resurgence of fighting over the disputed region in the following days.
Analysis provided by strategic partnership with Control Risks
Updated: 13 October 2023
Verified Event
Near Gasangaya, in Nagorno-Karabakh's Terter district, a landmine explosion killed one person and injured another.
6 OCTOBER 2023
Analysis Update
The EU is unlikely to impose sanctions on Azerbaijan following escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh.
The European Parliament on 5 October adopted a resolution to condemn Azerbaijan’s September military escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh that led to more than 100,000 people leaving the territory.
12 OCTOBER 2023
Although the resolution is not binding, it allows the bloc to deter Azerbaijan from launching another military escalation in the event of a further deterioration in its relations with Armenia amid peace negotiations.
The resolution calls for sanctions on Azerbaijani individuals and the suspension of ongoing energy projects.
If these sanctions were enforced, Azerbaijan would be negatively impacted because it is heavily reliant on revenues from oil and gas exports to European countries.
However, the EU is unlikely to move forward with the sanctions as these would lead to the collapse of EU-brokered Azerbaijan-Armenia negotiations and increase Russia’s influence in the region.
Verified Event
Near Asagi Veysalli, in Nagorno-Karabakh's Fizuli region, a suspected landmine explosion killed a vehicle driver and injured another vehicle driver.
13 OCTOBER 2023
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