The Road to COP30
Geopolitical trends, likely agenda and practical considerations
The 30th UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) will take place between 10 and 21 November in Belém, in the Brazilian Amazon. In this note, we provide an outlook for the geopolitical environment and the conference’s likely agenda, in addition to an assessment of the more practical considerations for organisations planning to attend.
The November event will be the most significant COP since 2015, given the symbolism of holding it in the Amazon and the current high stakes surrounding the climate crisis.
Preparatory events will give businesses the opportunity to shape conference priorities, which are likely to include climate finance and adaptation investments.
Hospitality and security challenges in Belém mean businesses sending delegations will need to prepare a robust risk mitigation plan.
Analysis Details
COP30 comes at a time when multilateralism is under significant strain. This is mainly a result of growing geopolitical competition and deepening scepticism within civil society regarding the capacity of key institutions – including the UN – to deliver concrete solutions for societal challenges. This will exacerbate the already high stakes for this year’s conference, which will unfold against the backdrop of a significant deterioration of the climate crisis and mounting scientific warnings. As agreed by many climate experts, COP30 will be a pivotal – if not the final – opportunity for governments to enable an orderly climate transition.
The legacy of the US withdrawal from the 2015 Paris Agreement remains a consequential setback for global co-operation, symbolically and practically diminishing any leadership by the US in climate diplomacy. Meanwhile, the EU faces growing internal pressures, particularly around security, that have sidelined some sustainability priorities. The BRICS bloc, with Brazil at its helm, remains divided on climate issues, and while China has amplified its climate rhetoric in recent weeks, this has yet to translate into concrete global leadership. Overall, major and middle powers are increasingly locked in competition over green technology, energy sufficiency and critical minerals, with industrial policy and trade restrictions fragmenting global supply chains and crowding out collective climate action.
State of Play
Recent months have delivered mixed signals on the resilience of multilateralism. Progress on a pandemic preparedness treaty in April and a significant breakthrough during the Biodiversity COP16 in February (both brokered, to a large extent, by Brazil), suggest some capacity for co-operation, yet deep divisions persist. The process to agree a global pandemic treaty was hampered by limited consensus and the withdrawal of key countries such as the US, echoing familiar challenges in climate diplomacy.
The main challenge facing multilateralism in the climate space is implementation. Despite commitments and more climate-friendly rhetoric in recent years, concrete results by most countries have remained significantly underwhelming.
Against this backdrop, Brazil’s COP presidency has called for “new global climate governance mechanisms” to support and ensure implementation, as originally articulated by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at the G20 Summit in November 2024. This vision underscores Brazil’s focus on implementation and a shift from negotiation to action, but so far it has not gained traction among major powers or within the UN system. There is a risk that talk of new institutions could distract from the urgent need to deliver results within existing frameworks. Nevertheless, Brazil’s emphasis on a “chain of action” (as opposed to a “chain of reaction”) reflects a growing consensus that the climate regime must urgently pivot to implementation.
Brazil’s own record illustrates the complexity of this transition. While the rates of deforestation in the Amazon (Brazil’s most significant climate challenge) have declined under Lula, his administration is simultaneously advancing new oil and gas projects (having joined OPEC+ in February) and controversial infrastructure projects in the region. This ambivalence will not completely undermine Brazil’s legitimacy to lead negotiations at COP30, but will be a meaningful symbol of the challenges facing countries in walking their climate talk.
Multilateralism Fightback?
A series of preparatory events will take place ahead of COP30. They will provide businesses with the opportunity to engage with key stakeholders – including government negotiators and NGOs – to help shape policy discussions.
Specifically, UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Climate Week in May and the SB62 session in June are designed to foster direct interaction between business leaders, negotiators and technical experts, offering companies a platform to showcase innovative solutions, inform the development of climate finance mechanisms and influence the framing of just transition strategies. Meanwhile, engagement at the pre-COP gathering and Leaders Summit – whether through observer status, partnerships, or targeted advocacy – may enable the private sector to align its priorities with global climate objectives and to build strategic relationships with key decision makers.
Timeline
COP30 will likely focus on scaling up climate finance, particularly by operationalising the new collective quantified goal (NCQG) and clarifying pathways to mobilise USD 300bn annually by 2035, as agreed at COP29. The conference will also prioritise raising ambitions for and implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The five-year update to these was due in February, but only 21 of the 196 countries that are signatories of the Paris Agreement have submitted their new versions, at the time of writing.
Other key agenda items will include accelerating adaptation efforts with an emphasis on national adaptation plans and robust adaptation indicators; advancing nature-based solutions and forest protection; and integrating climate and biodiversity goals within the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) framework. Finally, the refinement of Paris Agreement Article 6 on carbon markets, the development of technology transfer mechanisms and strengthening the role of indigenous and local communities in climate action, will be discussed in November.
Agenda
Hosting COP30 in the Amazon will be symbolically powerful but challenging. The Brazilian press in the past few weeks has reported on the infrastructure deficiencies facing Belém ahead of hosting the event, particularly around hospitality. COP30 organisers expect around 50,000 people to attend, while Belém currently has around 24,000 hotel beds, according to local media G1. Accommodation shortages have led to price hikes of up to 9,500%, according to data from private booking platforms. This has prompted criticism from civil society and NGOs, who warn that high costs will exclude participants from emerging economies and frontline communities.
The Brazilian government has responded by working with the private sector to expand accommodation capacity, aiming for 50,000 beds through a mix of hotels, vacation rentals, cruise ships, schools and military facilities. An official booking platform is being launched to stabilise prices and ensure transparency. Nevertheless, doubts remain about whether all promised infrastructure will be ready on time.
Logistics
Security concerns are another issue that will require advance planning by companies interested in sending delegations to the event. Both COP30 venues (Parque da Cidade and Hangar Convention Centre) are not in regions with the highest incidence of opportunistic crimes – including pickpocketing, robbery and theft from and of passenger vehicles – as they are not near high transit areas. However, the venues are located near high-risk areas of Sacramenta and Barreiros, which travellers should avoid due to the presence of organised crime. Travellers should avoid self-driving in Belém due to the risk of taking routes that pass through baixadas (low-income neighbourhoods with higher crime rates,).
Security
Civil unrest is generally uncommon in Belém. However, the high profile of the conference means it will mobilise a significant number of activists, including local and international groups. These are likely to plan their actions targeted at the event in the coming months, as seen in previous COPs. Companies should refer to further updates by Control Risks on activism in the weeks before COP30 to understand operational and reputational vulnerabilities relating to activism.
Sources: “COP30 Brazilian presidency calls for new global climate governance”, Reuters
“Second Letter from the Presidency”, COP30
“COP30: Belém challenges to overcome accommodation beds shortages and skyrocketing prices”, G1 Control Risks
Analysis provided by our strategic partner Control Risks.
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SEERIST BIG PICTURE SERIES
19-23 May
UNFCCC Climate Week in Panama, with a series of events and dialogues to define priorities in the lead up to COP30.
16-26 June
62nd Session of the UNFCCC Subsidiary Bodies (SB62) in Bonn (Germany), where parties negotiate and draft key agenda items for COP30.
13-14 October June
Pre-COP in Brasilia (Brazil), gathering climate-negotiating ministers and seeking to promote agreements on key issues for COP30.
6-7 November
Leaders' Summit in Belém (Brazil), bringing together heads of state to discuss high-level priorities ahead of COP30.
10-21 November
30th UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) in Belém.
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