Escalating tensions: The strongly worded statement by SAF spokesperson Nabil Abdallah said that RSF troops had deployed without coordination with the SAF, in violation of “the directives of the central and state security committees.” The army warned the RSF to abide by existing security protocols. The current dispute stems from plans to regularise the RSF by integrating the paramilitary organisation into the SAF command structures, a move heavily resisted by the RSF.
The civilian Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) coalition on 13 April urged the security forces to avoid any escalation and blamed “remnants of the former regime” of former president Omar al-Bashir (1989-2019) for stirring up tensions to derail the transition to a civilian-led government. Several other groups including the current holdout groups to the December 2022 framework agreement such as the Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) and international diplomats urged the RSF and SAF to negotiate their differences and avoid armed conflict.
Escalating tensions: The strongly worded statement by SAF spokesperson Nabil Abdallah said that RSF troops had deployed without coordination with the SAF, in violation of “the directives of the central and state security committees.” The army warned the RSF to abide by existing security protocols. The current dispute stems from plans to regularise the RSF by integrating the paramilitary organisation into the SAF command structures, a move heavily resisted by the RSF.
The civilian Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) coalition on 13 April urged the security forces to avoid any escalation and blamed “remnants of the former regime” of former president Omar al-Bashir (1989-2019) for stirring up tensions to derail the transition to a civilian-led government. Several other groups including the current holdout groups to the December 2022 framework agreement such as the Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) and international diplomats urged the RSF and SAF to negotiate their differences and avoid armed conflict.
26 – 31 December 2022
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Governor’s Arrest Prompts Bolivian Transportation Blockades and Government Buildings Attacks
SITUATION REPORT
BRIEF
On December 28, Bolivian police officers arrested Santa Cruz Governor Luis Fernando Camacho on terrorism charges. Immediately following the arrest, Camacho’s supporters, who refer to his arrest as a kidnapping, took to the streets as protests erupted across the region. Seerist’s Pulse score indicated declining stability prior to the arrest and kept users aware of ongoing unrest and transportation disruptions.
TIMELINE
Pulse stability score begins steep decent.
Pulse, Seerist’s stability score, started a downward trend from 43 before eventually reaching 27 on December 31 – seven points below Bolivia’s 60-day average range.
26 December 2022
Santa Cruz governor arrested.
Luis Camacho, governor of Santa Cruz, the largest region of Bolivia, was arrested.
Protesters rejected the arrest of the governor and blocked an airstrip at Viru Viru International Airport and temporarily obstructed operations at El Trompillo National Airport.
Protesters in Montero and Santa Cruz City blocked highways, vandalized buildings, burned vehicles, and demanded the liberation of Camacho.
28 December 2022
Transportation Hotspot triggered after confrontations between civilians and police.
Following Camacho’s arrest, protesters demanding his release were met with tear gas from police officers.
Protesters burned vehicles, tires, and sticks in the middle of the streets and set up barricades with bars and sheet metal blocking any through traffic.
30 December 2022
Political stability to decrease, Civil Unrest Risks to rise following governor’s arrest
The Bolivian police on 28 December arrested Santa Cruz Governor Luis Fernando Camacho on charges of terrorism linked to the political crisis of 2019.
Camacho, a prominent leader of the opposition, has been charged in relation to the ousting of former president Evo Morales (2005-19).
His arrest is likely to significantly increase civil unrest risks and political uncertainty, particularly in Santa Cruz department.
Businesses are likely to face operational challenges such as roadblocks and vandalism in the next few days, as well as a charged political environment.
30 DECEMBER 2022
SEERIST ANALYSIS
Continued unrest generates additional Hotspot
As tensions continued to rise, the Bolivian police maintain they have used “rational” amounts of force.
Escalating from burning vehicles, protesters attacked several state properties, including the Public Ministry of Santa Cruz, Police Command, Palace of Justice, and Sereci.
In addition to the destruction of state buildings, the Minister of Public Works also fell prey to arsonists as his home was set on fire.
31 December 2022
While Camacho’s arrest is highly polarized across the Santa Cruz region, it will likely empower radical voices who seek a more federal system that grants local governments more freedom.
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