Analyzing Colombia’s Risk Landscape Prior to 2026 Presidential Elections
Executive Summary
Overview: Colombia's Risk Landscape
Exploring Political Violence in Colombia
Security Threat Deep-Dive: Crime, Terrorism, & War
Outlook for Colombia
Case Study
Control Risks’ Analysis
SEERIST REPORT
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Executive Summary Colombia Security Assessment: Pre-2026 Election Period
Overall assessment: Colombia maintains a MEDIUM political and security risk rating (comparable to Ecuador, Peru, and Brazil), but conflict-affected regions are experiencing significant security deterioration as armed groups strengthen territorial control ahead of May 2026 presidential elections. Despite these dynamics, the situation does not constitute nationwide security collapse or democratic backsliding that would fundamentally alter Colombia's risk outlook.
169% increase in mobility restrictions; 117% increase in mass displacement (H1 2025 vs. H1 2024) 11 localized conflicts between non-state armed groups competing over illicit economies and territory Hotspots: Norte de Santander, Cauca, Valle del Cauca, Chocó, Antioquia, Bolívar departments pose elevated indirect violence risk for companies
Widespread use of drone attacks and vehicle-borne explosive devices against military and police August 21: Drone attack brought down police helicopter in Amalfi; 13 officers killed, 8 ainjured (EMC Front 36 reportedly responsible) Leftist guerrillas five times more likely than organized criminals to attack military sector
August 11: Senator and presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay assassinated; most high-profile political killing in three decades (shot in Bogotá on June 7; died after hospitalization) Attacks primarily target mayors and municipal council members in rural areas where armed groups operate Financially and politically motivated kidnaps will likely increase in Cauca, Arauca, Norte de Santander and Valle del Cauca departments ahead of the presidential election in May Security and hardline policies becoming central campaign components
Capital experienced 234% surge in abductions, 5.3% rise in homicides (January-July 2025 vs. 2024) Private property most targeted sector (62% of attacks); Seerist recorded 258 attacks by organized criminals in 2025 Agriculture, mining, and oil & gas personnel now account for 43% of all victims in security incidents
31% of all Verified Events are unrest-related (second only to crime at 40%) Government sector targeted in 46% of unrest events; 57% of recorded protests included roadblocks Large-scale protests like 2021 remain unlikely; demonstrations will be localized but sustained
Security Deterioration in Conflict-Affected Regions
Armed Groups Demonstrating Advanced Capabilities
Political Violence Escalating Pre-Election
Urban Crime Surging, Particularly in Bogotá
Civil Unrest Sustained and Fragmented
Key Findings
Outlook: Armed groups will continue strengthening territorial control in conflict-affected regions through the electoral period and beyond. The incoming administration's militarization approach will struggle to address evolving criminal governance dynamics, ensuring security challenges will remain elevated through mid-2026 and likely persist post-election through 2027. Adhering to Control Risks’ baseline forecast for Colombia’s outlook, institutional challenges, politically-motivated unrest, guerrilla attacks, and U.S.-Colombia tensions will characterize the transition period.
OVERVIEW
COVER
CURRENT POLITICAL AND SECURITY SITUATION
Overview Colombia Risk's Landscape
Colombia saw major security and political changes in the first half of 2025 that worsened its risk profile.
Security Risk: A series of violent incidents across various departments (Norte de Santander, Cauca, Chocó and Valle del Cauca departments), alongside an unprecedented assassination attempt on Senator and aspiring presidential candidate Miguel Uribe in the capital Bogotá on 7 June, signal a sustained and notable deterioration in security governance across several regions. Political Risk: Political polarization has sharply escalated, fueled by persistent rhetorical attacks between President Gustavo Petro, the opposition and other branches of government. In a pre-electoral environment aspiring candidates, the government, the media and public commentators have intensified polarization through inflammatory discourse, deepening ideological divides and heightening political tension.
Despite these dynamics, the situation does not constitute nationwide security collapse or democratic backsliding that would fundamentally alter Colombia's risk outlook.
Colombia’s Political & Security Risk Ratings with Neighboring Country Ratings
Security Risk Ratings in Areas Affected by Guerrilla Activity, Including Border Areas with Venezuela & Ecuador
The map presents the Risk Ratings overlay, illustrating Colombia’s MEDIUM political and security risk rating. This level is comparable to that of neighboring countries Ecuador, Peru, and Brazil, but contrasts with Venezuela’s high rating and Panama’s low rating.
Areas affected by guerrilla activity, including border areas with Venezuela, Ecuador, have a HIGH security risk rating, as they appear on the map, compared to other areas of the country. At least 11 localized, intensifying conflicts between non-state armed groups competing over illicit economies, territory and social control along the borders with Venezuela and Ecuador, the Pacific and Caribbean regions are the main driver of the security environment’s deterioration in Colombia.
Source: Colombia Country Page
Verified Events Unrest Trends
In 2025, civil unrest remained steady in Colombia, accounting for 34% of 1,111 Verified Events (VEs) recorded, making it the second most prevalent security incident category after crime.
Colombia is experiencing more frequent, diverse and volatile civil unrest amid increasing political polarization ahead of the elections in May 2026. Marches and sit-ins will persist in major cities like the capital, Bogotá; rural areas in Chocó and Antioquia departments will see frequent roadblocks and strikes. These protests are often sparked by hikes in toll rates, diesel prices, and transport and basic utilities fares. While large-scale protests like those seen in 2021 remain unlikely, demonstrations will be fragmented and localized, though sustained over time.
Click green buttons below to view Verified Event.
Analyst Note: There were several spikes in unrest this year. Early in the year, protests by the Venezuelan community in Colombia contributed to an initial increase. Toward the end of February, artisanal miners demonstrated across the Antioquia department. In March, rice farmers launched a multi-day strike involving roadblocks. At the end of May, unionized workers organized a national strike in support of President Gustavo Petro, while rice farmers resumed their strike in July, driving another surge in unrest. During the second half of the year, demonstrations largely focused on government-related issues, including protests in support of former President Álvaro Uribe and sit-ins at several government buildings in Bogotá by indigenous groups in October.
Source: Control Risks Analysis
Analyst Note: The most frequently targeted sector in unrest events was the government (46%), followed by the road sector (20%), reflecting demonstrations that involved roadblocks. Overall, 57% of all unrest events included blockades. While local community groups account for 65% of all unrest events, the following two biggest perpetrator groups are Labor/Trade unions and Indigenous activists. The industries most affected by unrest were agriculture, mining, power, and construction, where protests by local community groups were common. The military sector was also impacted, with incidents linked to security operations in areas where armed groups such as FARC dissidents, the National Liberation Army (ELN), and the Gulf Clan are active.
Government: 301 (46.45%)
Road: 134 (20.68%)
Agriculture: 75 (11.57%)
Law enforcement / Legal: 40 (6.17%)
Education: 32 (4.94%)
Mining: 23 (3.55%)
Power: 15 (2.31%)
Private Property: 11 (1.70%)
Military: 9 (1.39%)
Construction: 8 (1.23%)
Local community groups: 336 (65.88%)
Labour / Trade unions: 131 (25.69%)
Indigenous activists: 30 (5.88%)
Common criminals: 7 (1.37%)
Leftist guerrilas: 2 (0.39%)
Security forces: 2 (0.39%)
Environmentalists: 1 )0.20%)
Ethnic militants: 1 (0.20%)
‘Sectors’ Impacted By Unrest Events
Unrest Events ‘Perpetrator’ Types
Unrest Events ‘Attack’ Types
Click Each Heading to See Detailed Unrest Data
EXPLORING POLITICAL VIOLENCE IN COLOMBIA
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Political violence – although less lethal, more fragmented and localized due to evolving conflict dynamics – is likely to intensify leading up to 2026 presidential elections, as seen in 2018-19 and 2022-23.
The map shows the geographic distribution of crime and terrorism events targeting public officials in Colombia from January-December 2025. Most cases in 2025 have been concentrated in the capital Bogotá and areas where the presence and criminal governance of armed groups are stronger. This pattern is also very likely to continue through the end of the year and early 2026.
Political violence before and after the general elections: While threats and attacks against candidates and public officials remain common, they mostly target mayors and municipal council members in rural areas or small cities where organized armed groups are most active. The assassination of right-wing senator and presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay on 11 August following two months of hospitalization after being shot in Bogotá marked the most high-profile victim of political violence in three decades. According to Control Risks’ analysis, security and hardline policies against criminal groups will become central components of right-wing campaigns, which will portray the recent security deterioration as unprecedented. Additionally, criminal and armed groups are likely to exploit the electoral race to continue advancing their interests in regions where they are dominant, though without jeopardizing the vote. Key actors include the National Liberation Army (ELN), Central General Staff (EMC, FARC dissidents), and the Gulf Clan.
Source: Colombia Country Page, Control Risks’ Analysis #1, #2
Zooming In Security in Bogotá
Verified Crime & Unrest Event Trends in Bogotá in 2025
Analyst Note: Large demonstrations in Bogotá typically occur at Bolívar Square, especially those related to government issues. Disruptive protests by hooded individuals are also common near the National University, occasionally involving roadblocks. The U.S. Embassy has also been targeted during pro-Palestine demonstrations. The map illustrates the geographic distribution of crime and unrest events in Bogotá from January to December 2025.
Seerist PulseAI & Security Rating for Bogotá
Click green buttons above to view Verified Event.
Map of Verified Crime and Unrest Events in Bogotá in 2025
Analyst Note: The capital Bogotá has remained an unrest hotspot in the country. Political polarization, rising threats from armed groups and weak local security policies will sustain the deterioration of the security environment ahead of the general elections of 2026. In terms of crime, the city has shown a notable increase through 2025. From January to July, Bogotá saw a 5.3% rise in homicides and a 234% surge in abductions compared to 2024, underscoring an evolving criminal landscape.
SECURITY THREAT DEEP-DIVE
Trends in Crime, Terrorism and War
Analyst Note: In 2025, Colombia faced a deteriorating security environment characterized by escalating violence, driven by increased confrontations among organized armed and criminal groups, and between these groups and security forces. High-impact crimes such as homicides and abductions rose, particularly in urban centers like Bogotá, while financial blackmail remains stable. The proliferation of firearms continued, with a notable increase in the use of bladed weapons. Major armed groups, including the National Liberation Army (ELN) and various Central General Staff (EMC) factions, were actively engaged in territorial conflicts and increasingly focused on profit-driven activities like extortion and kidnapping-for-ransom.
Map of Verified Crime, Terrorism, & War Events in Colombia in 2025
Private Property (42%)
Military (23%)
Law Enforcement (16%)
Road (4%)
Government (3%)
Data on Sectors: Private Property, Military, and Law Enforcement/Legal remain the most affected sectors, with targeted shootings and attacks against security forces (police and military).
Data on Perpetrators: Of events with identified perpetrators recorded on Seerist, the main actors behind these incidents were the Gulf Clan, the National Liberation Army (ELN), and the Central General Staff (FARC dissidents) leftist guerrillas.
Methodology note: Due to the presence of multiple organized crime groups and non-state groups, many events lack detailed reporting on the perpetrators, and in some cases, only limited information is available, accounting for the number of events with ‘unknown’ perpetrators.
Retail (33%)
Hospitality (15%)
Healthcare (11%)
Oil and Gas (11%)
Financial (11%)
Agriculture (6%)
Construction (6%)
Mining (6%)
Additional Data on Sectors: Besides the most affected sectors, industries like Retail (33%), Hospitality (15%), Healthcare, Oil and Gas, Financial (11%), Agriculture, Construction and Mining (6%) were also targeted by organized criminals and leftist guerrillas. Attacks against the retail sector include extortion and targeted killings that typically occur within stores. Additionally, attacks targeting the hospitality sector include attacks against hotel properties and inside hotel restaurants. Lastly, the oil and gas sector has seen disruption from attacks against pipelines.
Verified Attacks Against Key Sectors
In Focus Organized Criminal Activities
Analyst Note: Colombia is experiencing a significant deterioration in security conditions, particularly in conflict-affected regions. This is driven by increased confrontations among organized armed and criminal groups, as well as between these groups and security forces. This trend is expected to persist through the remainder of the year and into 2026. Mobility restrictions have increased by 169% and mass displacement by 117% in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024.
Organized violence by armed and criminal groups remains highly localized, shaped by fluid and rapidly shifting relationships that range from armed confrontation to tacit coexistence. Various armed groups are entrenched in an escalating turf war and increasingly target state security forces, particularly in the Valle del Cauca and Cauca departments. Armed groups are very likely to continue strengthening their control over territories and communities in conflict-affected regions ahead of and during the electoral race, which is fragmented and increasingly polarized. Indirect violence risks for companies operating in and near conflict hotspots in Valle del Cauca, Cauca, Chocó, Antioquia, Norte de Santander and Bolívar departments will remain elevated in 2026.
Private Property: 153 (57.74%)
Military: 39 (14.72%)
Law enforcement / Legal: 37 (13.96%)
Public spaces: 9 (3.40%)
Road: 7 (2.64%)
Government: 5 (1.89%)
Hospitality: 5 (1.89%)
Retail: 5 (1.89%)
Entertainment: 3 (1.13%)
Agriculture: 2 (0.75%)
‘Sectors’ Targeted By Organized Criminals In 2025
‘Attack’ Types Used By Organized Criminals In 2025
Gun (firearm): 195 (82.63%)
Grenade: 11 (4.66%)
IED / Homemade: 11 (4.66%)
Assassination: 7 (2.97%)
Knife/bladed weapon: 3 (1.27%)
Robbery: 3 (1.27%)
Arson / Firebomb: 2 (0.85%)
Kidnap: 2 (0.85%)
Blockades: 1 (0.42%)
Car bomb: 1 (0.42%)
Heatmap of Verified Attacks by Organized Criminals in 2025
Evolving Tactics & Capabilities of Armed Groups Against Colombian Security Forces
Analyst Note: Armed groups are demonstrating increasing violent intent and capabilities, including the use of sophisticated tactics such as drone attacks and vehicle-borne explosive devices. Groups like the EMC and ELN are actively targeting state forces and critical infrastructure, such as oil pipelines. The fragmentation of groups and their engagement in turf wars contribute to escalating violence and humanitarian crises in conflict-affected regions. The capacity of these groups to overcome security measures, even armored vehicles, highlights their persistent threat.
Heatmap of Verified Crime, Terrorism and War Events involving the Military
The use of drones in guerrilla attacks against state forces and facilities is a growing trend highly unlikely to diminish in the coming years. The EMC’s intent to retaliate will likely increase following tactical setbacks, sustained military pressure and an escalating conflict with rival groups over control of coca-growing hubs, cocaine-trafficking routes, financial blackmail networks and illegal mining revenues. The government has been conducting a military offensive against the ELN since 25 January after a spike of violence that month. It is unlikely that government security forces will be able to decisively defeat the ELN but will deliver tactical blows to slow down ELN’s territorial consolidation efforts near Venezuelan border.
Verified Crime, Terrorism And War Events Targeting the Military Sector In 2025 Click green buttons below to view Verified Events.
Source: Control Risks Analysis 1, Control Risks Analysis 2
Analyzing Security Incidents Targeting the Military Sector
Increased use of advanced tactics by armed groups. Organized and armed criminal groups demonstrated increasing sophistication and capabilities, notably through the widespread use of aerial drones equipped with explosives for attacks on military and police units. This tactic is becoming more prevalent in conflict hotspots and reflects the groups' adaptation to asymmetric warfare.
Significant event. On 21 August, an anti-narcotics police helicopter supporting coca crop eradication activities in the rural area of Amalfi was brought down by a drone and then attacked on the ground, killing thirteen policemen and gravely injuring eight others. After initially suspecting the Gulf Clan, Defense Minister Pedro Sánchez later attributed the attack to the EMC’s Front 36.
‘Perpetrator’ Types In Events Targeting The Military Sector In 2025
Leftist guerrillas
Security forces
Organized criminals
Unknown
These types of events underscore a significant, sustained increase in armed groups’ attacks targeting the more sophisticated, better-equipped state (military) forces and causing increasing damage to civilians and public infrastructure. Overall takeaways: Organized and armed criminal groups will continue using UASs (aerial drones) in the coming months, reflecting their growing sophistication and military strengthening. Explosive-laden aerial drone attacks are proving to be an ideal tactic in asymmetric warfare, a context that defines Colombia’s internal conflict.
‘Attack’ Types In Events Targeting The Military Sector In 2025
Gun (firearm): 130 (54.17%)
IED / Homemade: 55 (22.92%)
Drone: 23 (9.58%)
Kidnap: 6 (2.50%)
Landmine: 6 (2.50%)
Car bomb: 5 (2.08%)
Airstrike: 4 (1.67%)
Grenade: 4 (1.67%)
Military drone: 4 (1.67%)
Roadside bomb: 3 (1.25%)
Analyst Note: Verified event trends over the past year indicate the top three most common ‘attack types’ targeting the military sector are conducted using gun, IED/homemade, and drone attacks. In terms of perpetrators, leftist guerrillas are close to five times more likely than organized criminals to be credited for attacks against the military sector.
Analyzing Security Incidents Targeting the Government
Peace efforts face significant challenges as security erosion continues. Right-wing presidential hopeful Daniel Palacios on 22 August urged Congress (legislature) to shelve a bill seeking legal benefits for armed and criminal organizations committing to dismantlement in peace negotiations. Polarized campaign rhetoric will likely hinder balanced debates on strategies to curb further deterioration of the security environment and improve operational conditions for companies in conflict-affected regions. As the topic of security becomes central to electoral discourse and campaigning, hardline, disproportionate, and simplistic narratives about Colombia’s complex organized violence and criminal governance dynamics are likely to gain traction. Well-informed, balanced debate and policy proposals on these issues remain unlikely, compounding the challenges the next government will face in designing an evidence-based, comprehensive state strategy to address the new phase of Colombia’s armed conflict.
Gun (firearm): 20 (55.56%)
IED / Homemade: 6 (16.67%)
Car bomb: 5 (13.89%)
Protest (demonstration): 2 (5.56%)
Assassination: 1 (2.78%)
Drone: 1 (2.78%)
Robbery: 1 (2.78%)
‘Attack Types’ Targeting the Government Sector In 2025
'Perpetrator Types’ For Incidents Targeting The Government Sector In 2025
Leftist guerrillas: 19 (55.88%)
Unknown:
Analyst Note: The most prevalent attack types in the Government sector were Gun (55.56%), followed by IED/Homemade (16.67%), and Car bombs (13.89%). Of attacks with identified perpetrators, leftist guerrillas were identified as responsible for 55.88%, nearly four times more likely than organized criminal groups at 14.71%. These incidents are linked to regions where armed groups such as FARC dissidents and the ELN are active.
Perpetrator Types’ For Incidents Targeting The Government Sector In 2025
Outlook Armed groups will likely intensify their grip on territories and communities in conflict-affected regions ahead of and during the electoral race, which is fragmented and increasingly polarized. Their actions will likely deepen the deterioration of public order and humanitarian conditions in these regions, undermining stability and eroding public trust in governing institutions. These effects will drive voters’ perceptions and preferences in the lead-up to elections in 2026. Progress in peace talks remains unlikely over the next year. Armed actors lack incentives to reduce violence linked to illicit economic activities. Armed groups will likely seek to benefit from the government’s openness to dialogue to secure tactical gains against rivals, shaping security dynamics in contested areas.
Source: Control Risks Analysis 1, Control Risks Analysis 2, Control Risks Analysis 3
Notable Security Events Targeting the Government Sector
Breaking Event, initially reported by Seerist on 10 June 2025 at 19:20 UTC: According to local and international media sources, at least 14 explosions occurred between 04:43 and 09:09 (local time) in several cities of Colombia's Cauca and Valle del Cauca departments. According to police reports, the explosions were suspected to have been carried out by Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) dissidents who are allegedly trying to pressure the government to make further agreements with them. The attacks mainly targeted local police stations and, as of writing, have caused the death of at least three police officers and left dozens of wounded officers and civilians.
Heatmap of verified terrorism events in the Cauca and Valle del Cauca departments on 10 June by suspected FARC dissidents
A graph displaying verified crime and terrorism events targeting the government sector from January to December in 2025
Notable Security Events Targeting Private Property
On 19 February, five attacks involving the use of explosive devices took place in Cúcuta (Norte de Santander department), most likely carried out by the ELN, according to Cúcuta Security Secretary George Quintero. Given the timing of the attacks in the late night-early morning hours, the intent was most likely a show of force both to state forces and rival groups rather than to cause widespread civilian casualties. The group’s intent to become the dominant group along the border with Venezuela will create a new balance of power with rival organizations, significantly increasing violence in the region. Overall, security forces made up 32% of the victims in attacks between January 2024 and August 2025. Cases targeting personnel in agriculture, mining and oil and gas also rose sharply compared to the same period between 2023 and 2024. These groups now account for 43% of all victims in security incidents.
‘Perpetrator’ Types Targeting Private Property In 2025
Common criminals
Outlook Negative humanitarian effects will continue, with growing numbers of targeted killings, threats, landmines, armed assaults and forced displacements. Military and business personnel will continue to face a significant risk of kidnapping by guerrillas in rural areas of Norte de Santander, Cesar, Arauca, Cauca, Huila and Guaviare departments.
Heatmap of Verified Crime And Terrorism Events Involving Private Property
Analyst Insight: Organized criminals reportedly targeted private property (assets) 153 times in 2025, accounting for 40.48% of all recorded attacks with identified perpetrators. During the same period, leftist guerrillas were credited as responsible for 56 attacks, representing 14.81% of the total. The most prevalent ‘attack type’ were guns, used in 72.84% of events, followed by IED/homemade explosives (7.16%), robbery (6.42%), and drone attacks (3.46%).
‘Attack’ Types of Security Events Targeting Private Property In 2025
Guns (72.84%)
IED (7.16%)
Robbery (6.42%)
Drones (3.46%)
Source: Control Risks’ Analysis 1, Control Risks’ Analysis 2
Surges And Overall Trends For Verified Crime And Terrorism Events Targeting Private Property In 2025 Click the green buttons below to view the Verified Event.
Click Each Heading to See Detailed Criminal Data
Click Each Heading to See Detailed Data
OUTLOOK FOR COLOMBIA
SECURITY THREAT DEEP DIVE
Setting the Scene Outlook for Colombia
Seerist’s Scenarios present different ways a country’s trajectory may evolve over the coming 12 months. Colombia’s outlook forecasts a highly contested run-off presidential election in June with a right-wing candidate win, with politically-motivated unrest, the intensification of guerrilla attacks, political violence and sustained tensions with the United States in the lead up to the elections scheduled for 31 May 2026.
Outlook
Triggers
Political and Security Impacts
Methodology: This is the baseline forecast for the country’s outlook – what we think will happen
Methodology: Events or developments indicating a scenario is unfolding as described. Graphics indicate whether a trigger is ‘met’, ‘partially met’, or ‘not met’
Methodology: Assesses likely impact on specific risk categories, while the color indicates the current rating (e.g., Medium), and trend arrow indicates whether that risk is expected to get worse (up arrow), remain static (arrow straight) or improve (arrow down).
CASE STUDY
Case Study Monitoring Colombia’s Security Environment in October 2025 During A Period of Heightened Diplomatic Tensions with the United States
On October 19-20, reports of diplomatic tensions between US President Donald Trump and Colombian President Gustavo Petro accounted for most of the negative sentiment on EventsAI reports. At the same time, anger and fear emotions also rose after Petro criticized US military actions in the Caribbean. This rapid succession of political and diplomatic disputes highlights the intense volatility, unpredictability and increasingly personalized nature of attacks characterizing bilateral relations under the Petro and Trump administrations.
Open-Source reporting in Colombia over the past 60 days
EventsAI provides real-time monitoring covering up to 60 days. While crime-related reports dominated online coverage, terrorism and unrest also featured prominently over the past 60 days.
Source: Control Risks' Analysis
Click the green buttons above to view the EventsAI.
CONTROL RISKS ANALYSIS
Control Risks' Analysis Kidnapping, political violence to continue rising ahead of presidential election
Analysis Details Presidential candidate Abelardo de la Espriella on 12 February said he was threatened and labelled a “military target” by the National Liberation Army (ELN) guerrilla. Financially and politically motivated kidnaps will likely increase in Cauca, Arauca, Norte de Santander and Valle del Cauca departments ahead of the presidential election in May. Colombia’s political violence surged in 2025 – outpacing 2022 levels – and is likely to shape voter behavior and campaign strategies during this period. Government and commercial personnel, particularly in agriculture, mining and construction, will face an elevated kidnap risk. Kidnap of Senator Members of the Dagoberto Ramos Front of the Central General Staff (EMC) guerrilla on 10 February kidnapped Senator and social leader Aida Quilcué of the Indigenous and Social Alternative Movement party, along with at least two of her bodyguards. The abduction took place as the victims travelled from Huila to Cauca departments, on the stretch between Totoró and Inza (Cauca). The kidnappers forced the victims out of their vehicle and into another at gunpoint and held them captive for around three hours, releasing them after undisclosed negotiations. The EMC and ELN-dominated Cauca, Arauca and Norte de Santander remain Colombia’s kidnapping hotspots in 2026, cumulatively registering over 56% of the country’s total recorded incidents. This is a sharp rise in these departments’ share from 2025 (38%). Elevated organized armed group (GAO) activity will likely drive a surge in both politically and financially motivated kidnaps in these departments as the groups seek to instill fear, sway results and generate revenue in the run-up to the presidential election. Political violence Colombia’s pre-election environment has been marked by a notable escalation of political violence and threats against public figures, posing serious implications for democratic stability and national security. In June 2025, the assassination of Senator and presidential pre-candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay underscored the severity of this challenge, shocking national public opinion and prompting presidential contenders and political figures to call for improved candidate protection. By mid-August 2025, the Electoral Observation Mission (MOE) – an independent organization that oversees elections – had documented more than 106 acts of aggression against political leaders, including assassination attempts, threats and attacks. In addition, the MOE stated that overall incidence of attacks and threats against political actors in 2025 was higher than in 2022, when the last national election took place. Political violence is likely to increase as armed groups seek to influence voter behavior to favor left-leaning candidates who support a more dialogue-based, less militarized approach to GAOs. They will also shape party strategies by discouraging right-wing campaigning in territories under their control. Incidents such as the reported threats directed at De la Espriella suggest that this trend is highly likely to persist. Outlook Government and security personnel will continue to be the primary kidnapping targets of GAOs in the run-up to the election. Furthermore, social leaders will remain particularly vulnerable to extreme violence during abductions. Around 15% of such targets were killed during captivity in the past five years, compared to only 3% of all other types of victims. However, as the groups seek to fund increased activity, commercial personnel and business owners will also face an elevated kidnapping threat – particularly in the agriculture, mining and construction sectors, which have been historically targeted. Sources: “Indigenous Senator Aida Quilcué released after hours-long kidnap”, El País “ELN threat against De La Espriella raises alarms over candidates’ electoral security”, El Espectador Control Risks
Source: Control Risks' analysis published on 18 February 2026
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