COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan
SEERIST EVENT REPORT
Pulse AI continuously identifies micro-changes in stability and looks for anomalies to alert users to actions that may pose a risk or present an opportunity to their operation. Pulse AI triggered alerts notify analysts of important developments, speed the process of finding and accessing mission-relevant data, and enable analysts to maintain situational awareness.
Pulse AI
Pulse AI History and Trendline
Events AI Sentiment
Emotions AI
Azerbaijan’s Pulse AI History and Trendline shows that over the past 60 days, stability has ranged between 43 and 53 points. Seerist’s seven-day Pulse forecast predicts a decrease in stability with scores anticipated to fall between 39 and 62.
Events AI Sentiment shows that the public sentiment related to COP29 in Azerbaijan have been generally positive between 1 September and 6 November 2024.
Emotions AI detects a high level of fear, predominantly due to a general concern about the success of COP29.
Azerbaijan to Host COP29
Source: Seerist
Pulse AI
Pulse AI History and Trendline
Events AI Sentiment
Emotions AI
Pulse AI
Pulse AI History and Trendline
Events AI Sentiment
Emotions AI
Pulse AI
Pulse AI History and Trendline
Events AI Sentiment
Emotions AI
Azerbaijan is set to host the 29th United Nations Climate Change conference (COP29) in capital Baku between 11 and 22 November. The event is due to be the largest international event hosted by Azerbaijan to date.
Seerist continues to monitor events related to COP29, providing timely analysis and forecasts to keep users informed of the latest developments.
Azerbaijan Security Landscape Overview
Seerist organised security risk rating into five sub-categories, allowing users to better assess the security situation in the country. Azerbaijan’s overall MEDIUM security risk rating is attributed to the border conflict with Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh region. However, due to land border closures and recent diplomatic efforts, Armenia is unlikely to interfere with the event.
Crime
The crime rate in Azerbaijan is lower than in most other countries in the region and most Western jurisdictions. Islamist extremist terrorism presents a threat. However, this is mitigated by the security services’ good capabilities, and businesses are unlikely to be directly targeted.
Unrest
The Azerbaijani government systematically cracks down on government critics and human rights and environmental activists. Azerbaijan is seeking to portray itself as a reliable partner to support the global energy transition despite the country’s reliance on fossil fuel revenues, hence it is unlikely to tolerate dissent in the form of protests during COP29. As the media environment is tightly under the government’s control, including curbing access to the internet amid periods of heightened tensions, media coverage of any protests or direct action taking place in Baku during the event is also likely to be curtailed.
The heatmap shows all verified war, crime and unrest events in Azerbaijan between 1 January and 6 November 2024. Only one small-scale protest and one shooting incident were recorded in Baku.
In Focus – Baku
Baku is the political and economic capital of Azerbaijan and is considerably larger than the other capitals in the Caucasus. It is also a major economic hub in the region, with a strong focus on the energy sector, particularly oil and gas. The city has experienced significant economic growth and development in recent years, represented by the presence of modern infrastructure. Baku is divided into 11 administrative districts (raions) and 48 townships. The Nasimi and Sabail districts host many businesses, the main financial institutions and government buildings.
Baku’s Pulse stability score and security risk rating as of 6 November 2024
Unrest
Demonstrations and anti-government protests occur occasionally. Although these are usually peaceful, the police routinely respond violently, cracking down on dissenters and placing them under arrest. To avoid attracting the attention of the local police, we advise travellers to avoid protests.
Terrorism
The most recent successful terrorist attack in Baku took place against a mosque in 2008, and the city presents a low risk of terrorism. However, the Iranian proxy Huseyniyun Armed Movement has emerged with the goal to topple the government and establish a theocratic state. So far, the movement has failed to attract wider support. The threat of sabotage by pro-Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh independence supporters is also low, but credible.
Internet shutdowns
The government has frequently resorted to internet shutdowns across the country, including in the capital Baku, during military escalations in Nagorno-Karabakh or against Armenia and amid elections or political tensions. These can range from slowing internet speeds to blocking specific social media and communication platforms. Business travellers are advised to have alternative communication plans in place and consider using a reputable VPN service to maintain access to essential online services.
Source: Seerist and Control Risks
Source: Seerist and Control Risks
The sections highlighted in yellow on the map indicate areas in Baku that experience heightened levels of crime and unrest relative to the rest of the city. These areas are at least 5 km away from the COP29 venue at Baku Stadium. Personnel should take additional precautions when visiting these locations.
Travelling to Baku
Seerist’s Baku City Profile page provides general information on Customs, Accommodations, Transit and Transport options that are essential for travellers. Contact details with clickable location map link of embassies and consulates are available for 18 countries, allowing user to seek help effortlessly in times of emergency.
Take standard precautions to mitigate the risk of petty and street crime. Travellers should keep an eye on their belongings at all times and should not display expensive items, such as cameras and mobile phones.
Take precautions when using ATMs, especially at night. Foreign exchange transactions are more secure if made in a bank or bureau de change.
Drunk driving is considered a serious offense, with severe fines and possible prison sentences for any alcohol in the system.
Travellers should refrain from traveling to Nagorno-Karabakh or border areas with Armenia due to safety risks, including landmines and unexploded ordnance.
Travellers should be aware that those who openly question government policy or criticize Azerbaijan's leadership, including the political opposition, journalists and civil society, are routinely harassed, intimidated and sometimes incarcerated for expressing their views.
Travellers are advised to avoid all demonstrations and large gatherings, as they can lead to disruptions in traffic and public transportation. Even peaceful demonstrations can turn violent, and police may use force to suppress them.
Visitors should monitor local media for information about possible demonstrations and follow the instructions of local authorities.
Guidelines on Personal Safety
Cultural awareness
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict remains a sensitive topic. While Baku is far from the conflict zone, travellers should avoid discussing this issue.
Source: Seerist and Control Risks
Monitor Security Developments in Baku with Events AI
Create and save custom keyword searches with Events AI to sift through Seerist's curated sources and stay informed on the latest developments in Baku ahead of and during COP29.
The Events AI heatmap shows the distribution of crime and unrest reports by local and international news and social media sources in Baku between 1 September and 6 November 2024.
Events AI Heatmap
Events AI Category Chart
The Events AI category chart shows an increase in reports of unrest over the past month, starting from mid-October, mainly calling for the boycott of COP29.
Events AI Heatmap
Events AI Category Chart
Stay Up-to-date with Seerist Analysis and Future Events
11 November 2024
Start of COP29
19 November 2024
22 November 2024
End of COP29
Donald Trump has consistently downplayed the climate crisis. Even if he adapts his rhetoric into a more pragmatic approach vis-à-vis the issue (for example, given market pressures), the US capacity to lead climate agendas will be undermined. Businesses would therefore face pressure to more proactively champion ESG policies, relying on private partnerships to develop more impactful initiatives. On the other hand, risks related to the implementation of stricter, onerous environmental regulations would be reduced, at least in the coming months.
Control Risks Analysis, 30 October 2024
5 November 2024
General Elections
6 November 2024
9 November 2024
Strategic Analysis
Security environment during COP29 conference in capital to remain stable nationwide
Azerbaijan will host the UN Climate Change conference (COP29) in the capital Baku between 11 and 22 November.
COP29 is a political priority for Azerbaijan, and authorities have enhanced security measures to prevent disruptions from protesters or nation-state threat actors.
The threat of anti-government and environmentalist protests is very limited because of the government’s crackdown on opposition groups and low tolerance for dissent.
In the unlikely event of violent outbreaks of protest, authorities would likely temporarily remove access to telecommunications, including internet, posing some disruption to business delegations.
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Source: Seerist and Control Risks
Source: Control Risks – published 23 October 2024
Crime
The crime rate in Azerbaijan is lower than in most other countries in the region and most Western jurisdictions. Islamist extremist terrorism presents a threat. However, this is mitigated by the security services’ good capabilities, and businesses are unlikely to be directly targeted.
Seerist’s Baku City Profile page provides general information on Customs, Accommodations, Transit and Transport options that are essential for travellers.
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