COP30 Event Report

Seerist Event Report

SCroll down to explore

UN Climate Change Conference (COP 30) Belém, Brazil 10-21 November 2025

Travel & Security Insights

Belém, Brazil

Crime: Despite the growing presence of organized criminal groups in Pará, petty and opportunistic crimes are the main threat – particularly mobile phone theft and robbery. Kidnap: Belém is not a kidnapping-for-ransom hotspot in Brazil. Most incidents are opportunistic kidnaps perpetrated by local gangs that predominantly target victims as they transit around the city, paying attention to public displays of wealth to profile potential victims. Unrest: Leading up to the COP30 in November, Belém is likely to face an increase in civil unrest. These events will likely remain mostly peaceful, with limited police intervention. They are likely, however, to cause indirect logistical impacts for those travelling in the area due to closed roads. Natural Disasters: Visitors must pay attention to flood risks in the Marco, Condor, Jurunas and Pedreira neighbourhoods. Extreme smoke conditions sometimes cause temporary closures of airports, as well as abnormally high temperatures and low humidity.

Key Security Issues

Considerations

While cities in Brazil are generally receptive of the LGBT+ community, Brazilian society is quite conservative, particularly outside the larger towns and cities. Instances of discrimination, violence and harassment against the community have been reported and are a concern. Factors contributing to these concerns include societal attitudes, cultural influences and conservative perspectives. Urban areas tend to be more tolerant. Although Belém’s general population is welcoming to tourists, foreigners of Asian and African origin are more likely to face discrimination. Female travellers should take particular care and avoid travelling unaccompanied at night.

Key Security Issues

Considerations

Belém is the capital of Pará state and the second-largest city in northern Brazil. The city is the commercial and logistical hub for the Eastern Amazon region, serving as headquarters for several federal agencies covering the region.

Source: Control Risks’ Belem City Profile

The map depicts areas where security threats are relatively higher than elsewhere in the city. Higher risk areas are shaded in yellow. Personnel are advised to take additional precautions if visiting these areas, or to avoid them entirely.

Belém City ParkCOP 30 Venue

Seerist PulseAI & Security Rating for Belém

1/4

Travel Insights for Belém

2/4

3/4

4/4

Belém Verified Event Trends

There were 47 verified crime events in Belém’s over the past 90 days, with no significant spikes in activity. Key drivers of crime were recurring clashes between security forces and gunmen during security operations. Another major driver of crime activity in the city is categorized as 'opportunistic' crime. This included armed robberies that resulted casualties, and shootings between rival criminal groups in the area.

Crime

Unrest

Verified crime events in Belém over the past 90 days, from 10 July to 07 October 2025

Belém Verified Crime Events by Perpetrator

Belém Verified Crime Events by Sector

Belém Verified Crime Events by Attack Type

Private Property: 27 Law enforcement/Legal: 10 Retail: 7 Hospitality: 2 Financial: 1 Manufacturing: 1 Marine: 1 NGOs: 1 Road: 1

Gun: 35 Robbery: 21 Knife/bladed weapon: 4 Vandalism: 4 Hostage: 2 Sticks/beating: 2 Hijacking: 1

Organised criminals

Common criminals

Security forces

Local community groups

Local Community groups

Right-wing extremists

Labour/Trade unions

Environmentalists

Government: 15 Law enforcement/Legal: 7 Road: 7 Public spaces: 3 Construction: 2 Education: 1 Retail: 1

Verified unrest events in Belém were consistently low, with only 16 recorded incidents, and no significant deviations from historic unrest trends. The primary form of unrest in Belém were protests (61.5%) that targeted the government sector (41.7%). These protests were typically peaceful in nature, including marches and large gatherings, with a smaller portion of these being blockades (26.9%) and strikes (7.7%).

Crime

Unrest

Verified unrest events in Belém over the past 90 days, from 10 July to 07 October 2025

Belém Verified Unrest Events by Perpetrator

Belém Verified Unrest Events by Sector

Indigenous activists

UN Climate Change Conference (COP 30) Overview

OVERVIEW

The 30th UN Climate Change Conference (COP 30) will take place from 10-21 November 2025 in Belém, Brazil. Bringing together 45,000 attendants including world leaders, scientists, non-governmental organizations, and civil society to discuss priority actions to tackle climate change. COP 30 will focus on the efforts needed to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5°C, the presentation of new national action plans (NDCs) and the progress on the finance pledges made at COP29 in Baku on 2024.

1/3

COP 30 conferences, meetings and other events will be held in Belém City Park, located at approximately 9 km form the downtown area (Cidade Velha neighborhood) and 4.3 km from Belém International Airport (BEL). Additionally, two zones will be established in Belém City Park to ensure the safety of the assistants, a "Blue Zone" restricted only to government officials and accredited personnel; and a "Green Zone" for the rest of all the COP 30 participants.

2/3

Due to the high-profile nature of the conference and its attendees, especially in the Blue Zone, security will be heightened in the area, with road closures likely to be implemented by security forces in the City Park area, and the surrounding neighborhoods of Souza, Marambaia, Sacramenta, Pedreira and Marco to control traffic and crowds.

3/3

Heatmap of Verified Events (VE) recorded in Belém within a 3-mile radius of the City Park location in the last 90 days.

Analyzing Verified Events in vicinity of Belém City Park

The venue for the COP 30 Summit, Belém City Park (BCP), can be found in the Souza neighbourhood of the city. The venue is approximately 4 km from Belém International Airport – Júlio César Ribeiro, which services domestic and international routes. While isolated incidents of unrest and violent crime have been recorded within 3km of BCP in the past 90 days, the immediate area (3km) is not a hotspot for crime or unrest events. Adjacent neighbourhoods less than 10 km from the COP 30 venue, such as Sacramenta, Jurunas and Guamá, are areas with elevated security threats. Personnel are advised to take additional precautions if visiting these areas.

The above heatmap of Verified Events (VE) shows all verified crime and unrest events in Belém in the last 90 days. Click the box to zoom in and view Verified Events.

Local Sentiment & Emotions Analysis Around COP 30

Seerist recorded several spikes in negative sentiment in Belém in early August after a newspaper article indicated that over 86,000 people were negatively impacted by flight cancellations between May 2024 and May 2025. Belém International Airport – Júlio César Ribeiro listed as one of the leading airports for cancellations. Another event driving negative sentiment was the flooding of Belém International Airport due to heavy rains in mid August, highlighting concerns with infrastructure capacity and reliability just three months in advance of COP 30.

EventsAI

1/4

2/4

3/4

4/4

UN Climate Change Conference (COP 30) Overview

Analysis of 477 EventsAI returns classified as Activist & Extremist-related sources over the last 60 days showed several spikes in “Fear” in September, with the largest reported jump on 13 October coinciding with discussions on climate finance and tax reform, and civil society calls for climate action. Other narratives that saw small increases in “Anger” centered on deforestation issues and calls for inclusive energy transition strategies.

Sentiment analysis over this 60-day period indicated a more positive (213) than negative (33) sentiment, with 239 events classified as neutral. Of the 323 events with identified and categorized emotions, “Fear” (65.9%) ranked highest, with Anger (18.2%) second, and “Joy” a close third at 13.3%.

Seerist EventsAI Emotions Trends Over The Last 60 Days in Activism & Extremism-Related Sources

Source: Seerist and Control Risks

Monitor Security Developments in Belém using EventsAI

EventsAl searches can be tailored using custom keywords to find information specifically related unrest and crime. This allows users to monitor both traditional news coverage of security developments and planned unrest events. Create custom searches to monitor local and international news coverage, as well as social media, to track security and related events ahead of the COP 30.

1/3

2/3

3/3

Seerist has three custom-built searches that clients can use to monitor threats, identify disruptive events, and track extremist-oriented narratives, in near real-time, specific to COP 30. COP 30: Brazil Security & Threat Risks COP 30: Belém Disruptive Events COP 30: Activist & Extremist Source Monitor

Future Events to Monitor in Brazil

Seerist provides Breaking Events and Future Events to allow users to continuously monitor major security incidents in Brazil. Future Events cover one-off or recurring events that could cause operational disruption, heightened security threats or result in significant political decisions. Found on the dedicated country page, all calendar events are given a rating for their potential severity, in addition to assessing impact types such as ‘unrest’ and ‘transportation’.

Nov 1 - 15

Nov 10 - 21

Nov 22 - 23

Nov 1 - 15

Nov 10 - 21

Nov 22 - 23

Nov 1 - 15

Nov 10 - 21

Nov 22 - 23

Future Events in Brazil

Source: Seerist and Control Risks

'Low severity’ indicates the event may result in minor or isolated operational disruption. There is no precedent for violence associated with the event and/or the current conditions do not indicate that violence is likely. Note: G20 Leaders’ Summit will take place in South Africa with Brazil’s Head of State and other government officials participating. This event is not hosted in Brazil.

Source: Control Risks' analysis published on 16 October 2025

Crime risk rating in four states increased from medium to HIGH, lowered from high to MEDIUM in another

ANALYSIS

Analysis DetailsWe have raised our crime risk rating for Amapá, Amazonas, Pará and Mato Grosso states from medium to HIGH and decreased it for Maranhão state from high to MEDIUM. Recent crime data shows persistently high rates of violent crimes like homicide in Amapá, Amazonas, Pará and Mato Grosso states, together with growing environmental crimes. Organised criminal groups (OCGs) will continue to expand their footprint in those states in the coming year, increasingly blending drug-trafficking operations with environmental crimes. Businesses in rural areas remain exposed to indirect security risks, while Pará’s crime rating does not indicate elevated threats for November’s United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30).

1/4

Crime dataWe have raised crime risk ratings for Amapá, Amazonas, Pará, and Mato Grosso due to persistently high homicide and violent crime rates, combined with the growing incidence of environmental crimes – such as illegal gold mining – linked to OCGs. According to the latest data from NGO Fórum Brasileiro de Segurança Pública, Amapá registered Brazil’s highest homicide rate in 2024 at 45.1 per 100,000 inhabitants, more than double the national average of 20.8. Although this figure fell from 64.9 in 2023, reflecting state-level security measures, homicide remains a significant risk alongside illegal mining, which is facilitated by the state’s proximity to the border with French Guiana. Pará, Amazonas and Mato Grosso show similar patterns, with homicide rates above the national average (29.5, 27.4 and 29.8 respectively) and increasing environmental crimes tied to OCGs. As for Maranhão, the downgrade of its risk rating from high to MEDIUM reflects sustained improvements in policing strategies. That said, risks persist in rural areas, where criminal networks maintain influence over informal economies.

2/4

Security environment Brazil’s two largest OCGs – the São Paulo state-based First Capital Command (PCC) and the Rio de Janeiro state-based Red Command (CV) – are likely to keep expanding their footprint in Pará, Amazonas and Mato Grosso over the next year, increasingly blending drug-trafficking operations with environmental crimes. OCGs exploit forest-based economies to finance drug-trafficking logistics, using illegal logging and gold mining as parallel revenue streams. Timber and mineral extraction serve as cover for cocaine shipments along riverine corridors, while profits from environmental crimes are laundered through shell companies. These dynamics illustrate how environmental crimes are integral to OCG financing and territorial control. In Pará, the CV dominates strategic hubs such as the state capital Belém and Barcarena municipalities, leveraging the Vila do Conde port for both drug and timber flows. In Amazonas, OCGs control fluvial routes in the Solimões basin, where they move drugs alongside illegally mined gold. Mato Grosso functions as a land bridge to Bolivia and Paraguay, with the CV using logging fronts to conceal cocaine shipments. Amapá faces similar vulnerabilities, with illegal gold mining near the French Guiana border feeding transnational criminal networks. Overall, the security environment in all those states will continue to deteriorate in the next year as OCGs diversify revenue streams, embed themselves in forest economies and exploit weak enforcement capacity.

3/4

Outlook In Amazonas, Amapá, Pará and Mato Grosso, businesses operating in remote areas will remain exposed to indirect security risks in the coming year, such as shootouts between OCGs and security forces. Although Pará’s crime rating has been raised, during major events – such as the upcoming COP30, which will take place in Belém – OCGs are unlikely to deliberately target businesses, as they have no history of doing so in other similar events. Sources:“2025 Public Safety Yearbook”, Fórum Brasileiro de Segurança Pública“Infiltration by criminal organisations has turned Amazon into drug hub”, O Globo“Expansion of criminal factions' network of operations in Pará”, Nexo Jornal

4/4

Explore Now

Learn more about delivering the trustworthy insights you need, right when you need them.

Discover Seerist Today

The foresight to get ahead of what may come.

The insights with the most impact.

Accelerate speed to decision.

1/5

2/5

3/5

4/5

The above heatmap of Verified Events (VE) shows all verified crime and unrest events in Belém in the last 90 days.

1/4

2/4

3/4

4/4

4/6

5/6

1/6

2/6

3/6

Discover the Seerist Solution.

Learn more about delivering the trustworthy insights you need, right when you need them.

Explore Now