Ecuador General Elections 2023

General Elections, 8–28 August 2023

Presidential candidate, Fernando Villavicencio, was assassinated at a political rally 11 days before the presidential vote scheduled for 20 August. Our strategic partner, Control Risks, issued an Analysis update Tuesday, 8 August that highlighted the increase in political violence in the lead up to the elections with the headline stating the presidential candidate had received death threats on August 1. This followed the assassination of a Mayor on 23 July and a prison riot on 25 July. Seerist has seen a steady decline in Ecuador’s Pulse stability score over the past two months as these events have unfolded.

Ecuador

Escalating tensions: The strongly worded statement by SAF spokesperson Nabil Abdallah said that RSF troops had deployed without coordination with the SAF, in violation of “the directives of the central and state security committees.” The army warned the RSF to abide by existing security protocols. The current dispute stems from plans to regularise the RSF by integrating the paramilitary organisation into the SAF command structures, a move heavily resisted by the RSF. The civilian Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) coalition on 13 April urged the security forces to avoid any escalation and blamed “remnants of the former regime” of former president Omar al-Bashir (1989-2019) for stirring up tensions to derail the transition to a civilian-led government. Several other groups including the current holdout groups to the December 2022 framework agreement such as the Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) and international diplomats urged the RSF and SAF to negotiate their differences and avoid armed conflict. Escalating tensions: The strongly worded statement by SAF spokesperson Nabil Abdallah said that RSF troops had deployed without coordination with the SAF, in violation of “the directives of the central and state security committees.” The army warned the RSF to abide by existing security protocols. The current dispute stems from plans to regularise the RSF by integrating the paramilitary organisation into the SAF command structures, a move heavily resisted by the RSF. The civilian Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) coalition on 13 April urged the security forces to avoid any escalation and blamed “remnants of the former regime” of former president Omar al-Bashir (1989-2019) for stirring up tensions to derail the transition to a civilian-led government. Several other groups including the current holdout groups to the December 2022 framework agreement such as the Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) and international diplomats urged the RSF and SAF to negotiate their differences and avoid armed conflict.

Political Violence increases before snap elections; security crisis to persist under new government.

8 AUGUST 2023 ANALYSIS

Presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio on 1 August reported that organised criminal group (OCG) Los Choneros sent death threats to his campaign team.

This follows the assassination of a mayor on 23 July and a riot on 25 July in Penitenciaría del Litoral prison in Guayaquil (Guayas province). These events underscore growing political violence ahead of the general elections and an unprecedented security crisis that continues deteriorating the social and business environment. Under the new government, elevated violence will sustain operational and security risks for companies in port cities in Guayas, Esmeraldas and Manabí provinces.

Presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio assassinated.

9 AUGUST 2023 VERIFIED EVENT

BRIEF

TIMELINE

There was a drastic increase in fear, sadness, and anger in response to the shooting of Fernando Villavicencio.

10 AUGUST 2023 Events AI Emotions

Ecuador's stability score reached its lowest score in 60 days.

Ecuador’s Pulse AI stability score reached a new low of 20, which is 27 points lower compared to a week and a half prior.

12 AUGUST 2023 PULSE AI

Undecided voters likely to favour hardline approach to growing violence ahead of general elections.

Political violence continues as Pedro Briones – the local director of the left-wing Citizen Revolution party in Esmeraldas province – on 15 August was killed in San Mateo (Esmeraldas).

15 AUGUST 2023 ANALYSIS

Fear emotions spike on election day.

20 AUGUST 2023 EVENTS AI EMOTIONS

28 AUGUST 2023

Jan Topic, who campaigned on an iron-fist policy against violence and ranked fourth in the snap presidential election’s first round, on 21 August endorsed Daniel Noboa for the run-off.

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Apathetic and undecided voters – who total more than 50% of the electorate – will likely support increasingly aggressive security proposals. Violence will persist as the election approaches and will not subside under the next government, continuing throughout 2023 and the first half of 2024. The threat of violence – politically motivated and otherwise – will remain elevated ahead of the election in coastal provinces Guayas, Esmeraldas, Manabí, Los Ríos and El Oro.

Noboa will likely also attract detractors of former president Rafael Correa (2007-17), the private sector and disenchanted voters demanding a change in the political landscape. Luisa González, the candidate of Correa’s Citizen Revolution (RC) party, is unlikely to gain any more votes due to a deeply rooted anti-correísmo sentiment. Violence will likely remain elevated and continue forcing businesses to adopt stricter security protocols, particularly in Guayas, Esmeraldas and Manabí provinces, in 2023.

An election run-off is scheduled for Oct 15. Seerist will continue to monitor the elections and keep users up to date as events unfold.

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