Mexico Security Insights
Mexico Crime Trends
Mexico Unrest Trends
City Overviews:
Monterrey
Guadalajara
Mexico City
Future Events in Mexico
FIFA World Cup 2026
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Mexico
2026 FIFA World Cup
Understanding the Broader Security Context at the World Cup The FIFA World Cup 2026 will take place across 16 venues in the US, Canada and Mexico from 11 June to 19 July. The tournament will attract millions of visitors and substantial commercial activity. However, its scale and international profile will also amplify a range of operational and security risks for businesses, spectators, and authorities. Geopolitical tensions, disruption to local communities, complex cross-border security coordination and elevated protest activity will likely shape operational and security concerns across the three host nations.
Map of the FIFA World Cup 2026 venues in Canada, the US and Mexico
Zooming in on the FIFA World Cup 2026 venues in Mexico
Drivers of Unrest and Mexico’s Security Risk Environment In Mexico, unrest is likely to focus on local grievances such as rising living costs and urban displacement, particularly in Mexico City, where rent increases have triggered protests that could disrupt activity near hospitality and sporting venues. Mexico’s security environment presents additional risks, while direct targeting of venues remains unlikely, incidental exposure to violence in transit corridors and fan gathering areas remains a credible risk.
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Over the last ten years, Mexico has experienced significant security challenges in several regions. Most of these are related to turf wars among organized criminal groups (OCGs) focused on drug trafficking, fuel theft and other illegal activities, as well as to the federal government’s clampdown strategy to break up these groups. Security forces’ focus on drug trafficking has often created security vacuums, of which common criminals and smaller-scale gangs have taken advantage to commit crimes with increasing impunity.
Mexico’s Security, Operational, & Cyber Risk Ratings
Mexico PulseAI History & Trendline over the Past 60 Days
Mexico PulseAI Stability Score (26 March 2026)
Note: PulseAI monitors open-source reporting to detect subtle shifts in stability and flags anomalies to alert users to emerging security developments in their area of operations.
Analyst Note: Seerist's Mexico Crime external layer shows Nuevo León and Jalisco states at MEDIUM Total Crime Risk rating, while Mexico City registers a VERY HIGH Total Crime Risk rating. Mexico City's VERY HIGH risk is likely due to the prevalence of petty, opportunist crime during peak commuting hours and during the night.
Map of the FIFA World Cup 2026 Venues in Mexico overlaid on the Mexico Crime external layer
Analyst Note: On 6 March President Claudia Sheinbaum held her morning press debrief ‘La Mañanera’ in Zapopan, Jalisco state, with updates following the killing of ‘El Mencho’ on 22 February in Tapalpa, Jalisco state.
Civil Unrest Protests in Mexico are mostly confined to roadblocks, traffic and cargo disruption and, in some instances, vandalism. Most demonstrations remain peaceful, and blockades are staged principally in urban areas affecting major roads. Kidnap Kidnapping is a persistent security threat in Mexico, and the country records the highest number of incidents in Latin America, despite a gradual decline in reported cases since 2020. Abductions occur nationwide but are most common in Mexico City, states along the west coast, and in major urban areas such as Monterrey and Guadalajara. Most kidnappings are carried out by OCGs targeting local business owners and company employees while they are in transit. Kidnappers are unlikely to target foreign nationals because of the significant attention it often draws from law enforcement. Organized Crime The activities of OCGs remain the primary security threats in Mexico. The country has one of the highest homicide rates globally, having risen significantly over the past decade, with many cases likely underreported and often linked to forced disappearances. Over 130,000 people are currently missing, with OCGs responsible for most cases. Security forces’ focus on drug trafficking has created gaps that smaller criminal groups exploit, increasing impunity. While crime is concentrated in urban areas, several western, southern, and south-eastern states also face persistent rural insecurity. Although most victims are nationals, foreign individuals and businesses are occasionally affected, prompting companies to allocate 5–8% of operating profits to security measures. Terrorism There are no active domestic terrorist groups in Mexico. Several guerrillas are active in southern states such as Chiapas, Guerrero and Oaxaca. However, their activities are limited, and they do not usually target foreign companies.
Note: Mexico crime data, sourced from the federal government of Mexico. The crime layers use UN top-level crime categories, by assigning Mexico’s crime categories or subcategories to the nearest UN equivalents. The crime “risk” classification is a relative score based on a modified per-capita calculation. Very Low Risk: Index Value Range < 20th percentile Low Risk: Index Value Range 20th - 40th percentile Medium Risk: Index Value Range 40th - 60th percentile High Risk: Index Value Range 60th - 80th percentile Very High Risk: Index Value Range > 80th percentile
The three Mexican host nations for the FIFA World Cup 2026 are Monterrey in Nuevo León state, Guadalajara in Jalisco state, and Mexico City.
Monterrey is the capital city of Nuevo León state. Nuevo León’s MEDIUM Total Crime Risk rating is comparable to that of neighboring Zacatecas, but contrasts with Coahuila’s VERY HIGH, San Luis Potosí’s HIGH, and Tamaulipas’ LOW risk rating.
Guadalajara is the capital city of Jalisco state. Jalisco’s MEDIUM Total Crime Risk rating is comparable to that of neighboring Zacatecas, but contrasts with Colima, Aguascalientes and Michoacán’s VERY HIGH rating, and with Michoacán and Nayarit’s LOW risk rating.
Mexico City is the capital of Mexico. Mexico City’s VERY HIGH Total Crime Risk rating is comparable to that of neighboring Morelos state, but contrasts with the State of Mexico’s HIGH, Puebla’s LOW, and Tlaxcala’s VERY LOW risk rating.
Note: Incidents = total recorded; Rate = incidents per 100k people
Crime events in Mexico from October 2025 to March 10, 2026, are highly centralized in certain regions, with many hotspots dominated by organized criminal groups. Out of 1,142 reported incidents, the vast majority involved these groups, highlighting their strong influence over the country’s security landscape.
Heatmap of Verified Crime Events in Mexico from 1 October 2025 to 10 March 2026
Analyst Note: The distribution of hotspots suggests that crime events are strongly influenced by a combination of urbanization, transportation corridors, and strategic geographic locations. The most intense areas align with large metropolitan zones and key routes connecting coasts, borders, and inland regions.
Mexico Verified Events by 'Perpetrator'
Insights: The data shows an overwhelming concentration among organized criminal groups, which are responsible for the vast majority of incidents. Their activity dwarfs that of other actors such as common criminals. This pattern strongly suggests that the crime events are not broadly distributed across different perpetrators but instead concentrated within structured criminal organizations, consistent with dynamics often associated with cartel or organized crime conflicts in Mexico. Across the 1,142 verified crime events between October 2025 and 10 March 2026, the data indicates a pattern of organized criminal violence primarily involving firearms and disproportionately affecting the private property sector, while also exerting secondary but notable pressure on the Law enforcement/ Legal and Government sectors.
Mexico Verified Events by 'Sector'
Insights: Private property is the most affected category, accounting for about 67% of incidents. Law enforcement/legal targets follow at roughly 12%, and government-related targets at about 6%. This suggests that, although the government sector is an important target, most violence is directed at businesses, residences, and other private assets. Retail and hospitality also show significant exposure, underscoring the frequent impact on economic activity.
Mexico Verified Events by 'Attack Type'
Insights: The distribution of incident attack types is heavily dominated by gun/firearms, which account for roughly three-quarters of all recorded events (about 74%). This indicates that gun violence remains the primary modality in these incidents, far surpassing other forms such as arson/firebombing (around 11.5%), robbery (just over 5%), and blockades (about 5%). Overall, the data points to a clear reliance on firearms as the central tool in violent activity during this period.
Recent violence in Mexico reflects a reconfiguration of criminal power rather than a simple rise or decline in crime. Shifts within major groups, particularly the Cartel of Sinaloa and the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, have triggered localized turf wars over drug routes, fuel theft, extortion, and illegal mining, with direct consequences for communities and economic activity.
The attack in Salamanca (Guanajuato), where 11 people were killed after a soccer match in January 2026, illustrates violence dynamics in the Bajío region. Here, clashes between the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) and local groups like Santa Rosa de Lima are closely tied to control of fuel theft and other illicit economies. These high-impact attacks respond to specific territorial disputes rather than indiscriminate violence.
In January 26, the disappearance of miners in Concordia (Sinaloa), was a case directly linked to instability in the state. This incident shows how cartel fragmentation has heightened competition for economic activities, including mining, where extortion and coercion of companies have become recurrent practices. These events highlight the direct impact of criminal disputes on productive sectors and local communities.
In Jalisco, the death of Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes (CJNG leader, confirmed in a joint Mexico-U.S. operation in February 2026) marked a turning point. The operation triggered a wave of violence, including roadblocks, vehicle burnings, and armed clashes across the state (at least 50 deaths reported in one week). This surge follows a recurrent pattern: eliminating criminal leaders prompts immediate responses and internal reorganizations that spike short-term violence, especially in urban areas like Guadalajara.
A graph displaying surges and overall trends for Verified Crime Events in Mexico from October 1, 2025 to March 10, 2026
Widespread retaliation on 22 February following the killing of 'El Mencho'
The Defense Ministry of Mexico on 22 February announced the killing of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes 'El Mencho', leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), in Tapalpa, Jalisco state during a security operation. Within hours, CJNG operatives in various states set vehicles, gas stations, and local businesses on fire, carried out carjackings to erect illegal roadblocks, and engaged security forces in armed confrontations. The most significant disruption was recorded in Jalisco, with spillover reported in Guanajuato, Michoacán, Nayarit and Colima states. Incidents were also reported in Baja California, Querétaro, Puebla, Oaxaca, Tamaulipas and Quintana Roo states, where the CJNG maintains substantial operational capacity.
IN FOCUS
Current risk rating After the wave of violence that followed Oseguera’s killing, the security and crime risks in Jalisco, Guanajuato, Michoacán and Colima were demoted from EXTREME back to HIGH. This reflects a reduced likelihood of territorially extensive, high-profile incidents, including retaliatory attacks against security forces, vehicle arson and illegal roadblocks. Volatility Security in these states will stay highly volatile in the coming months. The CJNG’s fragmented structure and lack of clear leadership raise the risk of infighting and rival encroachment, leading to sporadic high-impact incidents like ambushes, roadblocks, and clashes with security forces. Violence, especially in Jalisco, Guanajuato, and Michoacán, will continue to pose incidental risks to personnel. FIFA World Cup 2026 security risks The roadblocks and armed confrontation in and around Guadalajara on 22 February exposed security forces’ shortcomings in addressing high-profile violence. Although direct targeting of venues during the World Cup remains unlikely, incidental exposure to violence, particularly in unofficial fan zones and transit corridors, remains a credible risk.
Heatmap of Verified Crime Events in and around Jalisco state on 22 February following the killing of ‘El Mencho’
Heatmap of Verified Crime Events in Mexico on 22 February following the killing of ‘El Mencho’
The graph displays a spike in Verified Crime Events in Mexico on 22 February 2026 following the killing of ‘El Mencho’
Analyst Note: As retaliation for the killing of ‘El Mencho’, presumed CJNG members blocked over 41 roads and committed over 110 arson incidents. Private property was targeted in 51% of attacks, followed by the retail sector (13%), the financial (12%) and government sectors (12%). Seerist Verified Events geolocated the burning of over 20 government-owned bank branches of the Ministry of Welfare.
The SentimentAI graph displays a spike in ‘Anger’, ‘Fear’, and ‘Sadness’ sentiment in Mexico on 22 February 2026 following the killing of ‘El Mencho’ and broad retaliation by CJNG members nationwide.
Verified Crime Events by 'Sector’ in Mexico on 22 February
Verified Crime Events by Attack Type’ in Mexico on 22 February
Civil unrest in Mexico is increasingly frequent and driven by diverse economic and security concerns, including rising living costs, insecurity, industry-specific grievances and anti-government sentiment. Industry-specific grievances Farmers have engaged in nationwide strikes and highway blockades to demand fair crop prices and government support. These protests are driven by rising production costs, international price drops, and concerns over competition from subsidized foreign corn under the USMCA. Transport operators staged a similar nationwide ‘mega roadblock’ to denounce rising cargo theft and threats. Anti-government sentiment Driven by public dissatisfaction with the government's perceived failures in addressing corruption, impunity, and security issues, anti-government sentiment in Mexico is on the rise. Youth-led movements, like the Gen Z movement, are also playing a significant role, reflecting a global trend of activism fueled by inequality and insecurity. This discontent is manifesting in periodic outbreaks of protest action across the country.
A graph displaying surges and overall trends for Verified Unrest Events in Mexico from 1 October 2025 to 10 March 2026
Gen Z Protests Analyst Note: ‘Gen Z’ movement protesters on 15 November 2025 demanded that President Claudia Sheinbaum resign, citing the country's deteriorating security environment. The nationwide protests followed the assassination on 1 November 2025 of Carlos Manzo, Mayor of Uruapan, Michoacán state.
Feminist Protests
Agriculture and transport protests Civil unrest activity in the agricultural sector will intensify and become more frequent in 2026, as producers increase pressure on the government ahead of the USMCA 2026 joint review on 1 July.
Heatmap of Verified Unrest Events in Mexico from 1 October 2025 to 10 March 2026
Analyst Note: Mexico City will remain the country’s main protest hotspot in the coming years with spontaneous and disruptive demonstrations, reflecting a broader trend of growing social dissatisfaction. Regarding the World Cup, tournament-related increases in transport and accommodation costs during the Cup will likely further intensify tensions.
Analyst Note: The most frequently targeted sector in unrest events was the Government (47%), followed by Law enforcement (13%), reflecting demonstrations backed by anti-government sentiment. Overall, 35% of all unrest events included blockades. Most unrest events were perpetrated by Local community groups and Labor/Trade unions.
Mexico Verified Unrest Events by ‘Attack Type’
Mexico Verified Unrest Events by ‘Sector’
Analyst Note: Regarding blockades, for logistics and retail operators, the primary risk stems from frequent, short-term disruptions rather than a sustained criminal takeover of the road networks. These incidents are likely to result in intermittent delivery delays and increased transport costs.
Heatmap of Verified Unrest Events in Mexico City from 1 October 2025 to 13 March 2026
Analyst Note: On March 11 and 12, Mexico City taxi drivers protested against rideshare platforms, alleging unfair competition caused by lopsided regulatory requirements. In response, President Claudia Sheinbaum proposed a new framework that permits rideshare operations within designated zones, albeit at a higher cost. While tensions remain high, major disruptions are unlikely as the administration prioritizes seamless transportation infrastructure ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Mexico City Verified Unrest Events by ‘Attack Type’
Mexico City Verified Unrest Events by ‘Sector’
Monterrey’s security landscape Over the last 15 years, the security environment in Monterrey has been destabilized by disputes among OCGs. There are at least four groups competing for the control of illicit activities, the Northeast Cartel, the Gulf Cartel, the CJNG and the Sinaloa Cartel. The conflict has made shootouts and targeted attacks common in the Monterrey Metropolitan Zone (ZMM), including in commercial and high-traffic areas such as downtown Monterrey. The US Consulate has issued several travel warnings for Monterrey, the latest on 25 November 2025, advising US nationals to avoid the state’s highways connecting to other regions, especially Tamaulipas state, and to exercise caution when in the city.
CITY OVERVIEW
The graph displays surges and overall trends of Verified Crime Events in Monterrey from 1 October 2025 to 10 March 2026
Travel Information
Outlook Security conditions in the ZMM will remain volatile throughout 2026. Business personnel will continue to be sporadically exposed to incidents such as theft, road-related violence and crossfire during OCG clashes. Security policies will improve response times to incidents; however, past operations targeting OCGs have shown limited effectiveness in reducing violence within the ZMM, making efforts unlikely to deter crime and OCG-related violence.
Heatmap of Verified Crime and Unrest Events in the Monterrey Metropolitan Zone 1 October 2025 to 10 March 2026
The Monterrey Metropolitan Zone (ZMM) presents a mixed but generally LOW to MEDIUM security profile. Downtown Monterrey has total crime and violent crime rated at MEDIUM levels, reflecting its role as the metropolitan center and main concentration of incidents. In contrast, surrounding municipalities such as Apodaca, San Nicolás, Santa Catarina, and San Pedro Garza García maintain comparatively LOW crime and violent crime rates, with San Pedro standing out for VERY LOW homicide levels. Guadalupe, the municipality where BBVA Stadium, the World Cup venue, is located, is also listed with LOW crime levels.
Monterrey viewed through Seerist’s Mexico Crime map layer
Near the airport, the Pesquería Municipality is a notable outlier, recording HIGH total crime and VERY HIGH violent crime rates, indicating elevated localized risk. Nuevo León state has an overall MEDIUM security profile, with both crime and violent crime listed as MEDIUM. Overall, the data points to a security landscape where risks are concentrated in specific municipalities, while much of the Monterrey metropolitan area maintains lower and more stable crime levels.
Map of the Monterrey Metropolitan Zone overlaid on the Mexico Crime external layer
Map of the Monterrey, Ciudad Santa Catarina, and San Pedro Garza García municipalities overlaid on the Mexico Crime external layer
5-Kilometer Asset radius map of BBVA Stadium and of the Monterrey, San Nicolás de los Garza, and Guadalupe municipalities overlaid on the Mexico Crime external layer
Map of the Apodaca and Pesquería municipalities overlaid on the Mexico Crime external layer
Guadalajara’s security landscape FIFA on 23 February requested security reports assessing Mexico’s ability to guarantee security conditions for the World Cup, following the killing of CJNG leader ‘El Mencho’ in a security operative in Tapalpa, Jalisco state. Guadalajara and Jalisco state became the epicentre of nationwide retaliations by the CJNG, which saw multiple roadblock and arson incidents. Although authorities have since restored order and reaffirmed readiness, the visibility of unrest has prompted FIFA to demand stronger security guarantees, including expanded exclusion zones and closer coordination.
The graph displays surges and overall trends for Verified Crime Events in the Guadalajara Metropolitan Zone from 1 October 2025 to 10 March 2026
Outlook The weakening of leadership within the CJNG is likely to trigger internal fragmentation, potentially leading to localized increases in violence as factions compete for control. In Jalisco, this may result in higher violence in rural and peripheral areas, while Guadalajara is more likely to see targeted incidents rather than widespread violence. Although major events and business districts are unlikely to be directly targeted, there remains a risk of incidental exposure, particularly along transit routes and outside secured areas. Tourism, hospitality, transport and event‑services operators will likely face stricter access controls and higher security costs and increased co-ordination requirements with federal and local governments can be expected.
A Heatmap of Verified Crime and Unrest Events in the Guadalajara Metropolitan Zone from 1 October 2025 to 10 March 2026
The Guadalajara Metropolitan Area presents a mixed but generally MEDIUM to HIGH security profile. Downtown Guadalajara shows HIGH levels of both total and violent crime, reflecting its role as the metropolitan center and main concentration of incidents. In contrast, surrounding municipalities such as Tonalá and San Pedro Tlaquepaque report comparatively MEDIUM levels of total and violent crime. Zapopan, where Akron Stadium is located, is reported to have LOW crime levels.
Guadalajara viewed through Seerist’s Mexico Crime map layer
Near the airport, El Salto Municipality stands out as a notable outlier, with HIGH total and violent crime rates that signal elevated localized risk. At the state level, Jalisco has an overall MEDIUM security profile, with both total and violent crime rated as MEDIUM. Overall, the data suggests a security environment in which risks are concentrated in specific municipalities, while much of the wider Guadalajara Metropolitan Area maintains relatively LOW to MEDIUM crime levels.
5-Kilometer Asset radius map of Akron Stadium and of the Guadalajara, Zapopan, and Tonalá municipalities overlaid on the Mexico Crime external layer
Map of the Tlaquepaque, Tlajomulco and El Salto municipalities overlaid on the Mexico Crime external layer
Mexico City’s security landscape For visitors and business travellers, petty crime remains the most common concern, particularly theft. Incidents are often opportunistic and more prevalent in lower-income neighbourhoods such as Cuauhtémoc, Iztapalapa, and Gustavo A. Madero, though business visitors are less likely to frequent these areas. Mugging and bag-snatching affecting foreigners and business personnel are also reported in higher-income neighbourhoods such as Polanco, Roma, and Condesa. While such incidents can occur at any time, the risk tends to rise during peak commuting hours and at night.
A Graph Displaying Surges And Overall Trends For Verified Crime Events in Mexico City from 1 October 2025 to 10 March 202
Outlook Mexico City’s security environment is expected to remain stable in the coming days, with threat levels largely unchanged. The city’s strong law enforcement presence, particularly compared with other areas in Mexico, helps prevent organized crime–related violence and reduces exposure for business personnel and foreign travellers. While internal conflicts within the CJNG are intensifying in their strongholds, any direct targeting of Mexico City remains unlikely in the immediate term. Analyst Note This information is based on this security analysis regarding security dynamics in Mexico City, which indicates that security risks are unlikely to significantly increase in the coming days.
A Heatmap of Verified Crime and Unrest Events in Mexico City from 1 October 2025 to 10 March 2026
According to the data, crime risk in Mexico City is concentrated in touristic and central borough, while other areas generally range between LOW and MEDIUM risk levels. Mexico City's VERY HIGH risk is likely due to the prevalence of petty, opportunist crime during peak commuting. Mexico City boroughs have a LOW to MEDIUM homicide risk overall. Cuauhtémoc records VERY HIGH levels of both total and violent crime, with a MEDIUM risk for homicide, underscoring its role as the main concentration of incidents.
Mexico City viewed through Seerist’s Mexico Crime map layer
Surrounding boroughs such as Benito Juárez, Miguel Hidalgo, and Iztapalapa, also show VERY HIGH total and violent crime rates. Coyoacán, where Aztec Stadium is located, is likewise rated between HIGH and VERY HIGH for total crime. Near the airport, Venustiano Carranza reports HIGH total crime and VERY HIGH violent crime, pointing to elevated localized risk. Overall, Mexico City is characterized by a VERY HIGH security profile, with both total and violent crime most frequently rated between HIGH and VERY HIGH.
5 Kilometer Asset radius map of Azteca Stadium and of the Álvaro Obregón, Coyoacán, Xochimilco, Tlalpan and Magdalena Contreras boroughs overlaid on the Mexico Crime external layer
Map of the Azcapotzalco, Cuauhtémoc, Benito Juárez and Miguel Hidalgo boroughs overlaid on the Mexico Crime external layer
Map of the Gustavo A. Madero, Venustiano Carranza and Iztapalapa boroughs overlaid on the Mexico Crime external layer
Future Events to Monitor in Mexico
Seerist provides Future Events to allow users to continuously monitor major security incidents in Mexico. Analyst Note: Recent unrest in Mexico tied to the 2026 World Cup, set to open on 11 June in Mexico City, has been driven by groups protesting gentrification, displacement, and corporate overreach. These protests have merged with broader grievances from teachers, truck drivers, and farmers, intensifying tensions in March 2026, particularly around Azteca Stadium. Key incidents include the vandalism of World Cup murals on 16 March, and an upcoming 28 March anti-World Cup blockade and demonstration organized by the Anti-World Cup Assembly.
'Medium severity’ indicates the event may result in moderate or localized operational disruption. There may be some precedent for isolated violence, and/or current conditions suggest a realistic possibility of disruption or limited security incidents.
'Low severity’ indicates the event may result in minor or isolated operational disruption. There is no precedent for violence associated with the event and/or the current conditions do not indicate that violence is likely.
(Past) Mar 23
(Past) Mar 28
Jun 11
Jul 1
Note: Future Events cover one-off or recurring events that could cause operational disruption, heightened security threats or result in significant political decisions. Found on the dedicated country page, all calendar events are given a rating for their potential severity, in addition to assessing impact types such as ‘unrest’ and ‘transportation’ Analyst Note: Labor and sectoral groups have signalled potential disruptions during the tournament. The National Coordinator of Education Workers (CNTE), following a 72-hour national strike from March 18–20, has warned of further action unless education reforms are repealed. Transport groups have also threatened protests during matches, aiming to highlight insecurity, low agricultural prices, and challenges in the transport sector. Source: Seerist and Control Risks
