Ten Global Topics and Trends to Watch in 2025
Control Risks’ Global Issues team assesses key trends and issues that will likely shape the business risk environment globally in 2025.
President-elect Donald Trump’s second term as US president will raise geopolitical uncertainty and reinforce the need for scenario planning for organisations. Trump is likely to intensify strategic competition with China, including expanded trade and investment restrictions. US companies will welcome deregulation and corporate tax cuts, but foreign trade partners face the prospect of more tariffs and reduced market access.
Trump’s more unilateral and transactional approach to foreign policy will further weaken multilateralism (Trump intends to withdraw from the UN climate treaty (Paris Agreement) and questions other institutions such as NATO and the World Trade Organisation), but his administration could broker deals that cut through diplomatic impasses (such as the Ukraine war). Traditional US partners and allies in Europe and Asia will devote considerable political and diplomatic energy to managing relations; the US will also cultivate new relationships with like-minded governments in Latin America, Eastern Europe and parts of Asia.
Regional conflicts continue to disrupt global supply chains, impose new compliance and regulatory requirements, and threaten the security of local employees and assets. Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East will continue into 2025, driving sanctions, reputational and security risks to business. Moreover, increasingly confrontational dynamics in Asia, particularly on the Korean peninsula and in the China South Sea, will sustain geopolitical anxiety among regional and global businesses – even if kinetic conflicts remain unlikely.
Attacks by Houthi militants in Yemen on shipping in the Red Sea will continue to drive elevated freight costs and disrupt global supply chains in 2025. Even if a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas conflict prompts the Houthis to stand down, regional instability and heightened risk perceptions will continue to deter most vessels from transiting the Suez Canal. Meanwhile, increasing droughts are limiting shipping through the Panama Canal, and geopolitical tensions are rising in other key maritime supply routes such as East Asia, the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea.
COP30 in Brazil in November 2025 may be the last, best chance for the international community to produce a credible plan to address climate change. Countries in 2025 must update targets and strategies to meet Nationally Determined Contributions, but recent developments such as some countries’ backtracking on decarbonisation policies indicate low political will for more ambitious action on climate mitigation and adaptation.
Even with more ambitious international commitments, companies in 2025 will remain exposed to less predictable and more disruptive extreme weather events worldwide. Extreme weather will continue to disrupt business operations, disturb supply chains and trigger humanitarian crises. This, in turn, will add complexity to the operational and security environments.
In 2025, regulatory scrutiny regarding competition and access to data in the tech space will intensify, with a focus on issues such as overall market dominance, anti-competitive mergers and data monopolies. Key players will be the EU and the US, but other markets will follow along. While the EU has introduced investigations targeting Google, Meta and Apple, the US has advanced with its (bipartisan) initiative to ban China’s TikTok due to its perceived links to the Chinese state. Australia in November 2024 banned social media accounts for children under 16. Reduced predictability about the role of major tech companies (in terms of investments, operations and data policies) will create uncertainty in the economy, impacting clients and overall suppliers.
Geopolitical competition is increasing the importance and influence of a new set of countries occupying strategic locations, dominating critical supply chains or pioneering new industries. Europe’s Nordic region is leveraging its leadership of maritime and clean energy industries to set the terms for seabed mining. Latin America is using its geographic position and trade relationships to position itself as a nearshoring destination and East-West logistics hub. South-east Asia is benefitting from efforts to derisk and diversify global manufacturing supply chains. Sub-Saharan Africa is a latent critical minerals superpower.
2025 will likely see a rise in political violence. This will be driven by the regrouping of jihadists, the prominence of the far right and the increasing radicalisation of individuals. This comes against the backdrop of greater tolerance within some societies towards the use of violence to achieve power and settle scores, in addition to increasing capabilities brought about by emerging technologies. This will continue to impact the business landscape, including with the direct targeting of companies and executives even if this remains uncommon. Islamist extremist groups will likely hold increased intent for action in 2025 as a result of the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East.
Conflict, climate change and economic opportunities will continue to drive the movement of people into neighbouring countries, urban areas and developed countries. The UN reports more than 30m refugees worldwide in late 2024 – out of a total of nearly 300m international migrants. Conflicts in Ukraine, Sudan and the Middle East continue to displace millions of people, while economic and security crises in Latin America continue to drive irregular migration.
As a result, immigration will be high on the political agenda worldwide in 2025. In the US – the country in the world that receives the most migrants in absolute terms –Trump pledges to strengthen border security, end birthright citizenship and deport potentially millions of undocumented immigrants. Across Europe, ascendant right-wing political parties are advancing hardline immigration positions and policies.
Central banks have been mostly successful in reducing inflation in the past two years. The economic consensus is that inflation will continue to moderate in 2025, allowing governments and central banks to relax fiscal and monetary policies.
However, falling inflation will be challenged in 2025 by protectionist trade policies, supply chain disruption and regional conflicts. A global trade war triggered by sweeping US tariffs or an energy price shock caused by conflict in the Middle East would increase inflation. Higher-than-expected inflation could lead to higher-for-longer interest rates that dent consumption and investment. It would also have knock-on impacts on social unrest and political instability.
Increasing societal anxiety regarding a number of issues – including the cost of living, tech regulation, climate change and overall distrust in the public sector – will drive rising activism risks in 2025. Growing anti-AI sentiment on the back of concerns over ethical issues and environmental impacts will bring more direct action targeting the sector.
A lack of results by governments coupled with limited impacts of current activism approaches will fuel radicalisation among climate activists, who will retain increased intent to disrupt the operations of businesses perceived as damaging to the environment. In parallel, governments’ attempts to mitigate such risks – for example, through more restrictive legislation – might backfire, fuelling polarisation and escalation risks.
Sources: “Trump vows to end birthright citizenship and pardon US Capitol rioters”, BBC “Meta Fined $840 Million in Europe for Boosting Marketplace Unfairly”, NY Times Refugee Statistics, UN Refugees Control Risks
1
America First geopolitics hits the world
Wild card
US-China trade deal
Trump’s dealmaking approach coupled with China’s search for global economic stability produces a trade deal that stabilises bilateral relations, boosts investor confidence and strengthens global growth.
2
Ukraine and Middle East conflicts persist
3
Maritime bottlenecks impact supply chains
Wild card
NATO involvement in Ukraine
The Ukraine war spills over into direct engagement between Russia and NATO forces in Eastern Europe, the Baltic region or the Black Sea. Direct Russia-NATO conflict would trigger economic disruption in and capital flight from Europe, global food and energy shocks, and a sharp slowdown in global trade and investment.
Wild card
Hormuz Strait closure
In response to an escalation in the conflict with Israel and/or the US, Iran attempts to close the Hormuz Strait by attacking regional shipping and laying sea mines, disrupting energy transit and causing a global energy price spike.
4
The world gets a final chance in the climate crisis
Wild card
Significant financial stress driven by large disasters
Simultaneous disasters – or a particularly significant one – create financial stress, for example, through the collapse of more vulnerable insurance companies. Depending on a firm’s market significance, this could trigger a large-scale financial crisis as the potential for systemic contagion of insurers-driven instability remains elevated.
5
Tech giants' supremacy is challenged
Wild card
Widespread restrictions lead to social media platform shutdowns
Escalating data access restrictions driven by geopolitical animosity could ultimately lead to the shutting down of major platforms in key markets. This would significantly disrupt information exchange and raise further concerns around deglobalisation.
6
New geopolitical front lines bring opportunities
Wild card
Trade retaliation escalates
A significant increase in geopolitical competition driven by Trump’s protectionist approach triggers China to go further and faster up the trade retaliation ladder than expected, causing major supply chain disruption – for example, in the energy space.
7
Global political violence intensifies
Wild card
A major terrorist incident shakes the world
A combination of a failure in counter-terrorism systems and the opportunistic deployment of emerging technologies (such as low-cost drones) by a terrorist group produces a major terrorist attack, causing significant physical and economic damage.
8
Irregular migration still on the agenda
Wild card
Shift in migration narrative
A spike in economic concerns around population decline in developed countries drives a shift – even if gradual – in political narratives, decreasing the political costs of pro-immigration policies. This would reduce social risks and provide the labour market with more positive long-term prospects.
9
Inflation remains a concern
Wild card
Geopolitics-driven financial crisis
A more acute, even if short-lived, energy shock driven by geopolitics leads to the failure of one or more relevant companies or investors, destabilising the global financial environment and producing a gloomier investment environment.
10
Activism becomes weaponised
Wild card
Data centre disruption
A global, coherent direct-action movement emerges (driven by either climate or tech players dominance concerns) that targets the operations of data centres, significantly changing the threat landscape for businesses as they deploy better co-ordinated and more disruptive tactics.
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We have included a “wild card” for each of the key issues: these high-impact events are unlikely to occur but could catch organisations by surprise.
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