Seerist Situation Report
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Madagascar Protests and Coup
23 September – 21 October 2025
Seerist identified reports of Madagascar’s opposition protests over power outages in the capital city on 23 Sep 2025. These protests came after the country’s state-owned utility company Jirama warned of worsening power and water outages in the capital Antananarivo due to declining hydropower dam levels on 07 Sep (Seerist Analysis report).
Within a couple of days, Seerist detected notable shifts in Madagascar’s stability indicators, including declining Pulse AI scores and increasing levels of anger on 25 Sep (screenshot below).
These changes along with increasing reports of unrest provided more than two weeks of advance warning ahead of the government’s dissolution and subsequent military takeover that occurred in mid-October.
25 Sep
The protests, initiated by the Gen Z movement, began on 25 Sep in the capital Antananarivo and spread to at least eight other cities across Madagascar.
Verified Events: Seerist analysts verified protesters clashed with police during a demonstration denouncing frequent power outages and water shortages
Breaking Event: Overnight curfew declared in Antananarivo
EventsAI Emotions Analysis shows an initial spike in events with ‘anger” detected
26 and 27 Sep
DiscoverAI: Seerist detects and clusters a growing number of reports of protests and clashes with police
29 Sep
Hotspot: Madagascar’s president dissolves government amid youth-led protests, reports of 22 casualties
TIMELINE
30 Sep
Seerist Analysis piece detailing the government dissolution published
Madagascar’s PulseAI score continues downward slope
Hotspot persists
7 Oct
Hotspot triggered for reports of President Andry Rajoelina appointing Army general as prime minister in an attempt to defuse protests.
Analysis report published: President Andry Rajoelina on 6 Oct appointed Major General Ruphin Fortunat Zafisambo as Madagascar’s new prime minister.
EventsAI tracks protestors’ continued calls for Rajoelina’s resignation
12 Oct
Hotspot triggered for Madagascar Coup Attempt Amid Protest and Military Unrest
Seerist raises the country’s political stability to EXTREME and evacuation phase to STANDBY following President Rajoelina’s 12 Oct statement denouncing an “illegal coup attempt”, after a section of the security forces openly sided with protesters on 11 Oct, demanding his immediate removal from office.
13 Oct
Multiple Hotspots triggered: President Rajoelina fleeing the country and Military Uprising and Crisis
14 Oct
Seerist Verified Event: Outside the Presidential Palace in Antananarivo, a CAPSAT army colonel announced that the military had taken control of the government and seized power from President Andry Rajoelina, shortly after the lower house of parliament (National Assembly) voted to impeach him.
Madagascar’s elite military unit CAPSAT seized power after weeks of youth-led protests over basic service shortages, forcing President Andry Rajoelina to flee the country.
EventsAI Emotion Analysis: Notable increase in “anger” levels
15 Oct
Seerist Analysis piece detailing the military intervention and new government appointment
EventsAI
Madagascar Military Takes Power After Generation Z Protests
Madagascar President Forced to Cede Power to Army Elite Unit Amid Protests
Colonel Michael Randrianirina says he will be sworn in as president
DiscoverAI
Madagascar Military Coup and Political Unrest
17 Oct
Analysis report: Colonel Randrianirina was inaugurated as president, two days after the African Union (AU) suspended Madagascar.
Hotspot: Colonel Randrianirina: From Prison to Presidency
20 Oct
EventsAI: Randrianirina appointed businessman and former bank president Herintsalama Rajaonarivelo as Prime Minister, citing his experience and international connections; this appointment has been criticized by Gen Z protesters for lack of transparency and ties to the previous government.
21 Oct
Analysis report: Appointment of new prime minister signals focus on preserving relations with donors, investors
Control Risks Analysis
Rajoelina has left Madagascar and is no longer in control of key institutions.
His impeachment in the coming days is our most likely scenario, despite his attempt to stall proceedings by dissolving the National Assembly.
Should impeachment proceedings fail, a more disruptive transition led by military elements is a credible alternative.
The security situation in the capital Antananarivo remains fluid. The latest gatherings have been peaceful but still have potential to escalate at short notice.
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What to Watch
The response of the youth-led Gen Z movement to the new government's policies and appointments, particularly regarding transparency and delivery of basic services like water and electricity.
The timeline and conditions under which elections will be held, including whether the military adheres to its stated 18-24 month transition period or faces pressure to expedite the process.
The African Union's and United Nations' ongoing stance and potential actions regarding Madagascar's military government, including sanctions or diplomatic engagement.
21 Oct
Analysis report: Appointment of new prime minister signals focus on preserving relations with donors, investors