Global Outlook
MARCH 2025
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Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks
We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.
Companies in the northern hemisphere will likely face direct action threats as Annual General Meetings (AGMs) take place from March.
Pro-Palestinian, climate and single-issue activists have previously disrupted AGMs by shouting, storming stages or blocking entrances. A growing tendency to target individuals is likely to be co-ordinated with online “name and shame” initiatives, raising reputational risks. Greenpeace activists on 21 January bought tickets and gained access to the main hall in Davos to hang a banner, underscoring the threat posed by legitimate attendees at major events.
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The ongoing talks between the US and Russia on the Ukraine war and the prospect of a trade dispute have engendered a major crisis in US-European relations.
Ukraine and Europe have requested involvement in any deal to end the conflict. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump on 26 February said that the US would implement 25% tariffs on EU goods “very soon”. The US has threatened tariffs against several countries since January. Geopolitical risks will continue to drive regulatory volatility in the coming months, at least.
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The terrorism threat will remain elevated during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan (approximately 28 February-30 March).
Ramadan typically coincides with an uptick in Islamist extremist attacks, often following exhortations from groups including Islamic State, al-Qaida and their affiliates. The Israel-Hamas conflict and aftermath will likely further bolster intent by these groups to stage attacks, even if capabilities for high-impact attacks remain limited. Local affiliates in sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and parts of Asia are the most likely actors to stage attacks during this period.
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Greenland on 11 March will hold general elections amid heightened scrutiny given US President Donald Trump’s interest in the territory.
While the next government is likely to be pro-independence from Denmark, no immediate change to Greenland’s status with Denmark is likely. However, Trump’s remarks were part of a series of statements that reflect an emerging trend in geopolitics: a weakening respect for borders and territorial integrity.
In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.
Sources:
“Trump says 25% tariffs on EU will be announced soon”, BBC
“Israel Police warns against fake news, incitement ahead of Ramadan in Jerusalem”, JPost
“Greenpeace activists protest inside Davos forum urging leaders to tax the super-rich”, Greenpeace
“Trump says he still wants to buy Greenland, suggests Canada could become a U.S. state”, NPR
Control Risks
Global Outlook
NOVEMBER 2024
Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks
We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.
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The US Presidential election on 5 November will have global ramifications.
Global financial markets will likely experience a period of volatility around the results, which will be exacerbated should these be delayed or contested in the following days and weeks. There will likely be elevated geopolitical risks in the coming weeks as state and non-state actors may exploit a distracted US to take strategic actions, such as in the Ukraine and Middle Eastern conflicts. Control Risks assesses that the outcome of the election will be dependent on turnout in seven key swing states, where each candidate is polling within the margin of error of the other.
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There will unlikely be significant breakthrough on climate change action at the 29th UN Climate Change conference (COP29) in Baku (Azerbaijan) on 11-22 November.
COP29 will focus on financing, with the aim of establishing the so-called New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance to bridge funding gaps in developing countries. Squeezed budgets among wealthier nations coupled with limited momentum for international cooperation given growing geopolitical competition means that negotiations will fail to produce ambitious results. Azerbaijan’s strict approach to public protests will limit security risks to attendees.
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As host, Brazil will likely prioritise climate change, biodiversity, green energy and global tax initiatives during the G20 Leaders’ Summit on 18-19 November.
Brazil will likely attempt to showcase its leadership on global challenges, especially those impactful to Global South countries. Nevertheless, a final consensus on all issues will likely be undermined by geopolitical fragmentation and divisive issues. Key international leaders will be present at the summit, reinforcing the G20 as a key diplomatic forum. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin will not attend because of an outstanding arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court.
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The International Network of Artificial Intelligence (AI) Safety Institutes on 20-21 November will see allies coordinate technical approaches to AI ahead of the 2025 AI Safety Summit in France.
The network members include Australia, Canada, the EU, France, Japan, Kenya, South Korea, Singapore, the UK and the US. Technical experts from each member state will discuss priority work areas, as well as advance global collaboration and knowledge sharing. The summit is unlikely to produce concrete outcomes, but alignment on key areas such as safety and national security will provide a basis for further negotiations in February.
Sources:
“Currency volatility surges before US election”, Reuters
“UN Climate Change Conference: Baku – November 2024”, UN
“Lula eyes Brazil’s G20 summit with plan to tax billionaires”, Chatham House
“U.S. Secretary of Commerce Raimondo and U.S. Secretary of State Blinken Announce Inaugural AI Summit”, US Department of Commerce
“How Will a Global Plastics Treaty Impact Trade?”, IISD
Control Risks
In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.
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